Despite the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) loosening the one-child policy nearly a decade ago, China’s fertility rate continues to decline, with the number of young people registering for marriage hitting a new low. Various measures have been introduced by the CCP to stimulate fertility rates, but Western experts point out that there are multiple reasons why Chinese people are not having children, and there is no magic solution to boost the fertility rate.
Since the CCP implemented the “one-child policy” nationwide in 1980, China’s birth rate has been on a sharp decline. According to data from the World Bank, in 2022, China’s fertility rate (the number of babies born per woman) was 1.2, lower than the United States, benefiting from a more open immigration policy, with a rate of 1.7.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in January this year shows that by the end of 2023, the population in China was 1.4967 billion, a decrease of 2.08 million compared to the previous year. The number of births further decreased to 9.02 million, which is 540,000 less than in 2022, indicating a rapid shrinkage of the population in recent years.
The United Nations predicted in July of this year that by 2100, China may lose more than half of its population, becoming the country with the largest population decline.
At the same time, according to an analysis by financial services company Nomura of official data released this month, the number of new marriage registrations in the third quarter decreased by 25% year-on-year, indicating that the total number of marriage registrations in China this year will drop to 6.4 million, the lowest level since 1979.
Austin Schumacher, Assistant Professor of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told CNBC that by 2100, the proportion of live births in China compared to the rest of the world is expected to decrease from 8% in 2021 to around 3%.
The CCP has implemented various unconventional methods to increase the fertility rate. Besides recent incentives for fertility and housing introduced by the State Council, there have been reports of grassroots officials making “pro-natal” phone calls to the public. Some even claim that “not having children is a crime for eternity,” which has been mocked by the people.
Moody’s economist Harry Murphy Cruise told CNBC that the “psychological aftermath” of the one-child policy has persisted and has “fundamentally changed young people’s views on family.”
He added that the slowing economic growth has also led to “young people reconsidering or postponing their plans to start a family.”
For Chinese families, an increasingly pressing factor is the uncertainty of income to support child-rearing.
In recent years, the Chinese economy has been slowed down by the downturn in the real estate market, and the “Zero-COVID” policy has further impacted the economy. Moreover, the continued crackdown by the CCP on extracurricular tutoring, gaming, financial, and internet platform companies has affected industries that used to be popular among recent graduates.
The youth unemployment rate in China (measured by 16- to 24-year-olds who are not in school) rose to a record 18.8% in August. Although it slightly decreased in September, it still remains the second-highest.
“The real issue is that people don’t have confidence in sustaining a livelihood, let alone considering raising children,” Sheana Yue, economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, told CNBC.
Last month, the CCP announced a high-level plan to provide subsidies and tax cuts for families with children under 3 years old. These measures also extend maternity leave from 98 days to 158 days. Last year, the CCP doubled the child care tax deduction to 2,000 RMB (280 USD) per month.
Ms. Ma, a 39-year-old from Nanjing with a 4-year-old child, told Voice of America that she has no intention of having a second or third child because of the high cost of educating a child, and the government’s incentives do not interest her at all.
She mentioned that transportation and care for children are also significant issues. With many parents having only one child, a family has to take care of four elderly relatives, along with the child, creating immense pressure. “Nowadays, having three children is almost unheard of; basically, one child is enough.”
Ms. Xu, a 40-year-old media worker in Guangzhou, and her husband have opted to be a child-free couple. She told Voice of America that the cost of raising a child in China is too high, and she cannot afford the “sky-high kindergartens.” Another issue for them is the cost of housing in desirable school districts.
She also pointed out that having a child means being responsible for them, and if they cannot provide a good educational environment, shielding them from the intense competition of the rat race, they’d prefer not to bring them into this world. Not wanting to be tied down by a child is also a reason.
Lu Chenwei, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out in an interview with Voice of America that the phenomenon of low fertility rates in China has transitioned from a government-imposed one-child policy to the current internal issues of “hesitancy to have children” and “unwillingness to have children.” This shift is mainly influenced by two factors: changes in China’s overall socio-economic environment and the transformation of women’s gender values.
“This is an extremely challenging task, and there is no magic solution to increase the fertility rate,” economist Cruise from Moody’s said.
According to the “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023,” as of 2022, the number of unmarried people in China exceeded 240 million. By the end of 2024, this figure could reach 300 million, meaning nearly one in every four people is single.
China not only faces a weak recovery after the pandemic but also grapples with the aging population issue. The persistent low fertility rate is a significant blow to the Chinese economy.