Stalemate in Russia-Ukraine Conflict Raises Questions as Putin Visits Two Asian Countries

Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will embark on a two-day visit to North Korea and Vietnam on Tuesday, June 18. In the midst of the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict, the visit of the Russian leader has sparked widespread attention and raised questions from Western countries.

This marks a rare overseas visit by Putin since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has not hosted any world leaders since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last September, during Kim Jong Un’s visit to the Russian Far East, he invited Putin to visit North Korea. Putin’s last visit to North Korea was in July 2000.

According to the Kremlin, upon Kim Jong Un’s invitation, Putin will visit North Korea on June 18-19 and Vietnam on June 19-20. Although both visits were expected, the dates were not previously disclosed.

Amid the deadlock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin’s visits to these two Asian countries have drawn widespread attention and scrutiny.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has spared no effort to promote its “flourishing” relationship with North Korea, raising concerns among the United States and its European and Asian allies.

The United States has accused North Korea of providing weapons to Russia to aid in its operations in Ukraine, but both Russia and North Korea have denied these claims.

Putin has stated that Russia is engaged in a fight for survival against the West over the Ukraine issue.

According to Reuters, Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, remarked, “The list of countries willing to host Putin is shorter than ever.”

South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed that Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Hong-kyun discussed Putin’s visit to North Korea during an emergency call with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Friday.

The U.S., South Korea, and other countries have accused North Korea of providing substantial military assistance to Russia in the past few months. Observers are concerned that Russia may be violating international sanctions to assist North Korea in developing its new military satellite program.

During his visit to the Russian Far East last September, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited a fighter jet factory and a rocket launch facility.

UN monitors concluded that Russia fired at least one North Korean-made missile at a Ukrainian city in January. Ukrainian officials claim North Korea has delivered around 50 of these missiles to Russia.

According to North Korea’s official newspaper “Rodong Sinmun,” Kim Jong Un pledged his “full support and solidarity with the Russian military.”

The Kremlin, as reported by Russian official media, stated that Russia hopes to establish a partnership with North Korea “in all possible areas.”

In the days leading up to this meeting, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy attended the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Italy. Western leaders reiterated their enduring support for Ukraine and agreed to utilize the profits generated from freezing Russian assets to support a $50 billion fund.

Over the weekend, over a hundred countries and organizations participated in the International Peace Summit held in Switzerland, aiming to garner support for Zelenskyy’s peace initiative. The Ukrainian version of the peace plan calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.

Putin declined to participate in this summit and put forth his own peace conditions, including Ukraine relinquishing control of four territories occupied by Russia and withdrawing its NATO membership application. Ukraine and its allies believe these demands are untenable.

Putin’s visit to North Korea is widely regarded as an opportunity to strengthen Kim Jong Un’s support for Russia in the war. Last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin informed U.S. lawmakers that North Korean ammunition, missiles, and Iranian drones had revitalized the Russian military.

South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense emphasized that this visit should not lead to further military cooperation between North Korea and Russia that violates United Nations resolutions.

The Defense Ministry earlier mentioned that from August last year to February this year, Pyongyang shipped around 6,700 containers to Russia, capable of carrying over 3 million rounds of 152mm artillery shells or over 500,000 rounds of 122mm multiple rocket launchers.

Russia stated that it will cooperate with North Korea and develop relationships in ways chosen by North Korea.

Last month, Putin visited Beijing for a state visit and explicitly declared with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping their joint opposition to the U.S.-led world order.

The Kremlin announced that following the visit to North Korea, Putin will immediately proceed to Vietnam, drawing condemnation from the United States.

According to Reuters, ahead of this visit, Vietnam was absent from the Ukraine Peace Summit held last weekend in Switzerland, while sending a deputy minister of foreign affairs to the BRICS summit held earlier in Russia.

Officials mentioned that Putin, who was sworn in for a fifth term just over a month ago, is expected to have a two-day visit to Hanoi on Wednesday and Thursday, where he will meet with Vietnam’s new President To Lam and other leaders.

The United States, which upgraded ties with Hanoi last year and became Vietnam’s largest trading partner, has strongly reacted to this move.

When asked about the impact of this visit on relations with the United States, a spokesperson for the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi told Reuters, “No country should provide Putin a platform to promote aggressive warfare, as it would normalize his atrocities.”

The spokesperson added, “Allowing him to travel freely could normalize Russian flagrant violations of international law,” referring to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023, accusing him of committing war crimes in Ukraine. Vietnam, Russia, and the U.S. are not members of the ICC.

The European Union, another major economic partner of Vietnam, refrained from commenting as Putin’s visit neared. However, officials expressed dissatisfaction last month with Vietnam’s decision to postpone a meeting with EU envoys on Russian sanctions, believed to be related to Putin’s visit.

Two officials told Reuters that this is Putin’s first state visit to Vietnam since 2017 and the fifth visit overall. It is expected that agreements in trade, investment, technology, and education sectors will be announced, although the situation may change.

However, discussions with Vietnamese leaders may focus on more sensitive issues.

These negotiations could include discussions on weapons, as Russia has historically been the largest arms supplier to Vietnam; as well as energy, with Russian companies operating in Vietnam’s gas and oil fields in the South China Sea, sovereignty claimed by China. But due to U.S. sanctions on Russian banks, officials stated that transactions between the two countries may be challenging.

Carl Thayer, a Vietnam security expert at the Australian Defense Force Academy in Canberra, remarked, “The primary issues involve strengthening economic and commercial ties, including arms sales.”

He mentioned that Putin and Vietnamese leaders might agree to conduct ruble currency transactions through the banking system to facilitate payments for goods and services.

(This text is based on reporting by CNN)