This Saturday, on September 21st, Sri Lanka will hold its presidential election, with the incumbent president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, facing off against two left-leaning candidates. In this election, economic issues are the top concern for voters.
According to a report by Reuters on Thursday, the country’s economic problems have long been the biggest issue troubling the voters. In 2022, the economy collapsed due to a severe shortage of US dollars, leading to a significant impact on the currency, with people living under a 70% high inflation rate, and the country’s electricity prices increasing by 65% in the past year.
Despite the inflation rate dropping to 0.5% last month and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predicted to see the first growth in three years, millions of people are still mired in poverty and debt, with many voters pinning their hopes of escaping poverty on the next leader.
Alan Keenan, a senior consultant of the International Crisis Group in Sri Lanka, stated: “As many Sri Lankans are still struggling to survive, this presidential election will be intense, tense, and could be a key determinant of the country’s future political trajectory.”
The election will pit the incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe against the leader of the opposition, Sajith Premadasa, and the leftist politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake.
A Sri Lanka public opinion survey conducted by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) showed Dissanayake leading the pack, followed by Premadasa from the left-leaning party Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and the incumbent president, running as an independent, ranking third.
Premadasa and Dissanayake have both indicated that they may adjust taxes and public spending related to the International Monetary Fund rescue plan. Dissanayake has also proposed a new local debt restructuring plan.
With a population of 22 million people, about 17 million are eligible to vote in this election. In 2022, Sri Lanka witnessed massive protests due to economic distress, leading to the then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fleeing and subsequently resigning.
Wickremesinghe, a former prime minister, was appointed to complete the term of the former president by the parliament. He managed the economic crisis through a $2.9 billion IMF bailout plan and a $25 billion debt restructuring, but the economic recovery remains uncertain.
Economist Dhananath Fernando from the Advocata Institute in Colombo predicts that most people will set aside traditional party conflicts and focus more on economic issues.
Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, head of the Centre for Policy Alternatives in Colombo, stated: “The main criticism of the government is its lack of sensitivity or empathy towards the urgent issue of debt restructuring.”
Analysts believe that whoever wins the election must ensure Sri Lanka’s public finances are in order, start repaying foreign debt, attract investments, and complete the four-year IMF program.
The election results are expected to be announced on Sunday, September 22nd, with the new president being sworn in shortly after.