Amid China’s economic downturn, the political changes within the Communist Party are highly uncertain. There have been three abnormal circumstances recently in the Party, seemingly related to a power crisis facing the Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, with various experts offering different opinions.
In late September, the Communist Party introduced significant measures to boost the sluggish economy, contrary to the previous stance that China couldn’t take aggressive economic actions. This move is similar to former Premier Wen Jiabao’s “4 trillion stimulus package.”
During the 75th anniversary banquet of the Communist Party’s founding on September 30, retired senior Party members like Li Ruihuan and Wen Jiabao made a collective appearance, with Li and Wen even seated on both sides of Xi Jinping, sparking speculation of internal compromises and Xi Jinping emulating Wen Jiabao.
Political and economic observer Qin Peng, based in the United States, analyzed and told the Epoch Times that the real GDP of China at present should be negative, with the first and second quarters likely negative by 5%, and the third quarter probably around a 10% negative state. Therefore, the Communist Party is truly desperate now, making a palace coup the easiest option at this time.
“When the Communist Party’s seniors push, he (Xi Jinping) must relinquish some power and intentionally show goodwill to these people. During every Communist Party crisis, the one at the helm will always retreat. When Mao Zedong caused many deaths with the Great Leap Forward, there was also a meeting of seven thousand people internally. Mao Zedong’s power waned, leading to the Cultural Revolution to seize power. Now, Xi Jinping is in big trouble, and these elderly individuals will definitely ‘press the palace,'” Qin Peng said.
He added that Xi Jinping would try to create so-called Party unity and would be willing to bring out Wen Jiabao. Li Ruihuan belongs to the generation of Jiang Zemin and is the kind of person who dares to challenge Jiang Zemin, having prestige. Xi Jinping urgently needs a group of political elders present to declare unity outwardly.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He told the Epoch Times that for Xi Jinping to “stand tall,” he must have achievements, but currently, he is facing a dire situation, with even the military in disarray, unable to deliver. He is under immense pressure, including pressure from senior Communist Party officials.
However, he noted that there is controversy surrounding Wen Jiabao’s market rescue efforts.
“In the 2008 financial crisis, China’s economy suffered a huge impact, and the Communist Party launched a 4 trillion stimulus plan, but the side effects were considerable. Now Xi Jinping has not resolved these side effects, but instead, they have developed in a vicious manner, leading to the current situation. The methods he is currently adopting are likely more out of necessity, and of course, the pressure from the senior officials may also play a role,” Wang He said.
Guo Xiangsheng, deputy researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, told the Epoch Times that rather than saying Xi Jinping is bowing to the seniors, it can be seen as him strategically promoting Wen Jiabao at this time to boost market confidence, prominently placing him at the banquet for promotion and photo opportunities.
Around July’s Third Plenum and August’s Beidaihe Conference, rumors emerged domestically and overseas regarding Xi Jinping’s severe illness and his loss of military power. A retired Communist Party official and former director of the National People’s Congress, Leng Jiefu, wrote an open letter mentioning Xi Jinping’s health condition and the transfer of Party, government, and military authority to two vice chairmen of the Military Commission. He called for the “dismissal of the Communist Party.” The Epoch Times learned that Leng Jiefu has not faced any punishment since Xi Jinping’s appearance at the Beidaihe Conference.
Qin Peng stated that Leng Jiefu is fine, possibly because Xi finds it awkward and cannot refute claims that he is unwell. “He is in big trouble now. The three-year epidemic caused dynamic elimination, severely weakening his personal prestige and damaging the entire economy. The economy is continuing to decline, and there are few rescue measures.”
Wang He mentioned that Professor Leng is a retired official and likely represents a portion of internal Communist Party forces. He remains unscathed for now, and further observation is required to understand the underlying reasons.
Guo Xiangsheng mentioned that it’s difficult to determine if Leng Jiefu has solid background support, but claiming that Xi is losing power exaggerates the situation. Evidence from the banquet and frequent appearances show otherwise.
With anti-corruption measures in the military, people promoted by Xi Jinping in recent years have continually fallen or disappeared. Xi’s chief secretary, Zhong Shaojun, recently rumored to be replaced, was promoted to the Political Commissar of the National Defense University, a move that remains unverified.
General Chen Guoqiang, a 61-year-old member of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and the Deputy Secretary of the Military Commission, was reassigned at the end of September to the Political Commissar of the National University of Defense Technology. His replacement, Major General Fu Aiguo, aged 60, has an unknown whereabouts.
On September 29, mainland Caixin reported Chen Guoqiang’s new appointment, particularly highlighting his involvement in new student reception tasks, suggesting that Chen’s transfer is considered a demotion.
Moreover, there are reports indicating a strained relationship between Xi Jinping and the Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, Zhang Youxia. Xi has purged Zhang’s old subordinates, but Zhang has received support from senior Communist Party officials, possibly leading to a counterattack.
On October 6, Chinese-Australian scholar Jiun Li, in an interview with the Epoch Times, mentioned that Xi Jinping is generally rough in politics. He lacks knowledge of who should be promoted and relied upon, facing a situation where sycophants deceive and fight among themselves for power, sometimes uncontrollable, ultimately leading to acquiescence.
Regarding Xi Jinping’s control over the military, Li noted that while it may seem on the surface he is in control and has purged many individuals, promoting his own, he lacks the experience of leading troops, therefore unable to establish a strong relationship with a combat-ready force, implying he has not fully controlled it.
Shufan Ding, honorary professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs, National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told the Epoch Times that China’s internal affairs are highly opaque, limiting external understanding. He believes that the numerous difficulties the authorities face may have a negative impact on Xi Jinping’s prestige, but no one is likely willing to challenge him yet.
Qin Peng mentioned that recently, some of the key personnel Xi Jinping relied on in the military have been shifted to less critical departments, showing signs of his weakening power. This implies a redistribution of power between Xi Jinping and the current top brass in the military. Previously rumored to have been stripped of power, Vice Chairman of the Military Commission Zhang Youxia seems to have seen an increase in power recently.
Wang He pointed out that Xi Jinping has been in control of the military for 10 years, and the widespread implementation of military reforms indicates that he still has supporters within the military. However, with significant issues arising from the Rocket Force, it shows that corruption has not been resolved. This underscores Xi’s poor personnel decisions and judgment. Xi’s aggressive purges have made everyone insecure, and those previously selected by him probably do not truly stand by him.
He believed that even the individuals Xi used to monitor the military now have unknown whereabouts, indicating significant changes within the military. The Communist Party now tightly controls information, and the dismissal or transfer of officials is not publicized, indicating an effort to conceal the complex internal situation, suggesting instability among the military ranks. “Since Xi Jinping came to power, he has tried to minimize the military’s interaction with society, emphasizing political indoctrination, which may have backfired. Xi Jinping is focused on recovering Taiwan, ensuring the troops are combat-ready, but currently the troops generally seem unwilling to engage in combat.”