On October 22, the South Korean government urgently convened a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) committee to discuss the response to North Korea’s dispatch of troops to support Russia. National Security Office chief Kim Tae-Hyo stated that if North Korea insists on doing so, South Korea will resolutely respond alongside the international community.
South Korea recently released news and related evidence of North Korea sending troops to Russia on a large scale. The South Korean military stated that on October 17, Ukraine confirmed that North Korean soldiers had appeared on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, where 6 North Korean soldiers were attacked and killed near Donetsk in the Russian-occupied areas. Russia is restructuring the 3,000 troops dispatched by North Korea into battalion-level units.
The dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia has drawn significant attention and concern from the international community. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol had a phone call with NATO Secretary-General Mark Lutte on October 21 to discuss the situation related to North Korea dispatching the “Storm Corps”.
Despite North Korea denying the deployment of troops to support Russia, a Ukrainian delegation stated on October 21 during a meeting of the UN First Committee that intelligence indicates North Korea may send over 10,000 regular troops to Russia in the near future to confront Ukraine.
The United States’ Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Robert Wood, expressed concern at the UN Security Council on October 21, describing the situation as a “dangerous and highly worrisome development”. The US is consulting with allies and partners on the impact of this dramatic move. Earlier, US Defense Secretary Austin also stated that if confirmed, the situation would be “very serious”.
Kim Tae-woo, former president of the Institute for National Security Strategy of South Korea and professor at Kyungyang University’s Department of Military Science, believes North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia is likely true. He mentioned that North Korea’s urgent goals are to maintain its regime, create terror to solidify Kim Jong-un’s rule, and enhance its nuclear capabilities. By seeking Russian assistance, North Korea is distancing itself from China to cozy up to Russia, believing that only by advancing its nuclear capabilities can it exert pressure on South Korea and use it as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the US.
Intelligence from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service indicates that North Korea has decided to dispatch a total of 12,000 troops to the battlefield in Ukraine to support Russia, comprising 4 brigades. North Korea is also sending elite units subordinate to the special operations “Storm Corps” to Russia, with troops currently being mobilized.
The Storm Corps, also known as the 11th Corps, was established in 1969 as a special forces unit under the 8th Corps, mainly responsible for the January 21, 1968, attack on the Blue House. In 1983, North Korea integrated this unit with other special forces units, leading to its expansion and ultimate upgrade to a corps. To conceal the unit number, it was referred to externally as the 630th Special Joint Force.
The 11th Corps of North Korea, similar in nature to South Korea’s Special Forces Command but with a larger scale, ranges from 40,000 to 80,000 soldiers and fulfills various tasks, such as the “Lightning” Alarm Brigade, “Thunder” Air-Land Force, and “Thunderbolt” Sniper Brigade.
During the military parade held in North Korea on February 8 last year to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the army, the absence of the 11th Corps was noticed. South Korean public opinion suggests that the 11th Corps was elevated to a special operations corps, and its members were not included in the parade to maintain secrecy. However, the corps’ flag appeared during the parade.
According to South Korea’s surveillance of North Korea’s military movements, from October 8 to 13, North Korea used Russian navy transport ships to move special forces to Russia. During this period, four landing ships and three escort ships from the Russian Pacific Fleet transported over 1,500 North Korean special forces from regions near Chongjin, Hamhung, and Wonsan to Vladivostok, with plans for a second wave of troop movements.
This marks the first time Russian naval forces have entered North Korean waters since 1990. Additionally, Russian airline AN-124 transport planes have been shuttling between Pyongyang and Vladivostok.
On September 11 and October 2 before the dispatch, Kim Jong-un twice inspected the special operations unit. It’s reported that the dispatched North Korean troops are currently stationed in Russian military camps across Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk for adaptive training, before being deployed to the frontlines in the battlefields.
Furthermore, a video released by the Strategic Communications and Information Security Center under the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture on October 18 showed North Korean soldiers receiving equipment inside Russian military facilities. On October 20, the center also revealed that the Russian military had prepared a survey in the Korean language for clothing sizes, including uniforms and shoes.
Regarding the number of troops North Korea is dispatching, Kim Taewoo believes that while external estimates suggest 4 brigades, the scale may actually be larger, possibly reaching corps level. He explained that as North Korean forces accumulate experience and improve their strength through war, with the war prolonged, personnel rotations may exceed 100,000, presenting an unfavorable situation for South Korea.
In response to North Korea dispatching 1,500 elite special forces to Russia, the South Korean government is considering indirect support by providing 155mm shells to Ukraine through the US. A source in the South Korean military mentioned that the government had already provided 500,000 155mm shells to the US for indirect support to Ukraine.
Based on South Korean intelligence, North Korea’s future troop deployment could reach 12,000 soldiers. The South Korean government’s plan is to first fully prevent North Korea from sending additional troops. If North Korea expands its troop deployment, South Korea will have to reconsider how to support Ukraine and collaborate with the international community using all available means.
This past summer, the South Korean government sent two domestically produced mine-clearing tanks, known as “Rhinos”, to Ukraine as part of its assistance, focusing on trucks and defensive non-lethal weapons. However, South Korea believes that North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia goes beyond mere cooperation and has turned into a blood alliance, forcing South Korea to discuss implementing tougher measures, such as providing lethal weapons to Ukraine.
In addition to 155mm shells, South Korean military experts suggest that considering future negotiations with Russia, it may be prudent to initially provide defensive weapon systems and later escalate to lethal weapons. The “Korean Patriot”, known as “Cheongung II” medium-range surface-to-air guided weapon system, aligns with this strategy and is a critical need for Ukraine.
Ukraine also desires equipment like the “UAV Jammer” to disrupt enemy drones via radio interference, the “anti-jamming UAV” to defend against electronic interference, and portable “anti-drone rifles” for electronic counterattack on enemy drones.
Should the South Korean government decide to provide lethal weapons, potential options may include the K-2 tank, K-9 self-propelled artillery, Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher, and tactical ground-guided missile systems.
If North Korean forces engage in warfare, South Korea may shift from current indirect support to direct provision of ammunition, the 180-kilometer “KTSSM” tactical surface-to-surface guided weapon, and other equipment to Ukraine. However, providing missiles like the long-range Hwaseong series exceeding 300 kilometers, including the “Hwaseong-5” missile, may pose challenges.
To counter North Korea’s large-scale troop entry into the Ukrainian battlefield, the South Korean government is exploring the dispatch of expert teams to Ukraine, consisting of a few specialists in North Korean intelligence and enemy tactical areas. Moreover, experts have proposed sending Air Force F-16 instructors to train Ukrainian pilots either in Ukraine or domestically, as Ukraine lacks pilots familiar with the F-16 fighter jet.