South China Sea Conflict: What Does it Mean for the CCP

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Amid the recent incident of a malicious collision involving the Chinese navy last Saturday, a series of subsequent events in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines have raised concerns about the volatile situation in the region.

Between August 27 and September 2, 71 Chinese vessels were reported to be operating near Sabina Shoal, with earlier sightings of 53 Chinese vessels in the area including militia ships, navy vessels, and coast guard ships from China. Sabina Shoal, a coral reef approximately 75 nautical miles from Palawan Island in the Philippines, has become a hotspot due to maritime standoffs between the Philippines and China in recent weeks.

The Philippine military reported a record number of over 200 Chinese vessels spotted within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in various locations over the past week, with a significant concentration near Sabina Shoal where a serious collision between a Chinese maritime militia vessel and a Philippine ship occurred on August 31st.

The Philippines attributes the surge of Chinese vessels in the area to their recent focus on Sabina Shoal, also known as Escoda Shoal, expressing concerns that China may be seeking to establish a permanent military presence there. In addition to the vessels around Sabina Shoal, another 52 Chinese vessels were monitored near Thitu Island in the Philippines, with dozens more observed at Ren’ai Reef and other locations within the Philippine EEZ.

Trinidad, from the Public Affairs Office of the Philippines Armed Forces, stated that China’s presence in the Manila EEZ is illegal and that the Philippine Navy and Armed Forces will continue to fulfill their duty to protect the country.

Chinese Foreign Ministry accused the Philippines of “illegally stranding” and “Teresa Magbanao” in Sabina Shoal (known as Rizhao Reef in China), citing protection of territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in their actions there.

During the visit of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Papalo to the Philippines from August 26 to 30, the importance of the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty was emphasized. In the context of the South China Sea conflict, as the Philippines being the oldest treaty ally of the U.S. in the region, the U.S. Navy escorting Philippine vessels in the South China Sea is one of the options being considered.

Admiral Papalo specifically mentioned the possibility of the U.S. Navy escorting Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, given the similar nature of the mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines, and the increased engagement of the Chinese navy in gray zone conflicts in the South China Sea. This signals a potentially dangerous escalation, where China may be crossing the red line triggering the U.S.-Philippine mutual defense treaty.

However, General Romeo Browner, Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, mentioned that Manila would only accept the proposal for U.S. Navy escort if unilateral efforts failed. The Philippines seems to prefer diplomatic efforts to avoid further escalation in the South China Sea conflict. Before seeking U.S. military assistance in executing maritime operations independently, the Philippines wants to exhaust all options. This does not mean that the Philippines and the U.S. are not prepared to take coordinated actions.

The escalating provocative and aggressive actions of the Chinese maritime and air forces pose an increasing military threat to the Philippines and Japan, prompting the U.S. to enhance joint operational capabilities with regional allies.

The U.S. Navy is currently conducting the Pacific Vanguard multi-national exercise this year, involving the Royal Canadian Navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, South Korean Navy, and U.S. Navy, demonstrating military power in the Philippine Sea. This joint maritime operation includes live-fire exercises, submarine hunting, island hopping, and aerial combat drills.

A key theme in this multi-national exercise is “networking.” They emphasize faster and more effective sharing of information, tracking enemy movements, and launching coordinated cross-border, multi-domain attacks when necessary. This raises a critical issue regarding the multi-national naval warfare capabilities in the Philippine Sea, enhancing real-time information sharing among allied navies to provide protection to directly affected allies and partners in the region like Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan.

The exercise underscores how multi-national forces can exchange real-time information through common information chains, radars, GPS, and other wireless network technologies. Apart from simple radio communications, cross-national data sharing between drones, surface warships, and aircraft may involve complex interface relationships. Each country’s sensors, radios, electronic signals, and guidance systems need to utilize standard interfaces and configurations to facilitate information exchange across different communication layers. New interfaces or gateways can ensure free information exchange among allied forces; for instance, information from Japanese fighter jets can be transmitted to South Korean, American, and Canadian warships.

By establishing a common information chain and interface, multi-national naval and air formations spanning the Pacific can successfully establish regional defense boundaries. For instance, if a U.S. Navy drone detects a Chinese submarine using towed array sonar approaching the Philippines, it could immediately alert ships from Japan, South Korea, and Canada, transmitting threat data to unmanned aerial vehicles from all allied nations. If a South Korean drone detects China launching anti-ship missiles from beyond the surveillance range, it would process threat data in real-time and transmit time-sensitive information to other airborne, naval, and ground nodes, informing allied ship commanders of the impending threat for decisive action.

Currently, both Japan and the U.S. use Aegis radar systems, enabling them to rapidly exchange ballistic missile threat information across vast oceanic regions. The Aegis Combat System employs universal software, sensors, and radar systems, allowing quick tracking of threat information. In this sense, computational technology and universal standards potentially enhance data flow from incompatible sensors, enabling different countries’ militaries to communicate information in a real-time, seamless manner in network environments.

If the U.S. is building a common information platform in the Indo-Pacific region to prepare for joint command and control, the deployment of V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor transports and F-35B stealth fighters taking off from U.S. amphibious assault ships in the Philippine Sea demonstrates a display of land, sea, and air combat capabilities. Given the rapidly escalating situation in the South China Sea, increasing U.S. military presence in the Philippine Sea and including the Philippines in its protective sphere seems consistent.

Considering the long-standing military cooperation between the U.S. and the Philippines, the possibility of U.S. warships escorting Philippine vessels in the coming weeks is increasing, placing the Philippines at an unprecedented level of security and defense. Particularly, in recent months, the U.S. has expanded its presence in the Philippines with several new bases for operations, asset deployment, and expanding U.S.-Philippine military cooperation.

As a large-deck amphibious assault ship, the USS America can carry up to 20 F-35B stealth fighters. Its presence in the Philippine Sea is multifaceted, with the most crucial being the capability it provides for U.S. fifth-generation fighters to have access to a wide area, defending the Philippines, Taiwan, and even potentially targeting sensitive areas on the Chinese mainland. With the closest distance between the Philippines and mainland China being roughly 500 kilometers, the operational radius of F-35Bs from the Philippine Sea covering the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and parts of the Chinese coastline is approximately 1,600 to 2,000 kilometers. Through aerial refueling, attacks can be launched almost anywhere in the Philippine Sea, establishing an aerial control zone over the region.

In the vast area defending the territorial seas and airspace of the Philippines, F-35s can securely and rapidly share battlefield intelligence with allies through the advanced Multi-function Advanced Data Link (MADL). The airborne take-off of F-35Bs and land-based F-35As will provide a quantitative and qualitative advantage over China’s fifth-generation air forces, such as the J-20 and J-31, regardless of both or either appearing. Hence, using the USS America with F-35Bs could thwart any Chinese amphibious assaults against the Philippines, with minimal chances of succeeding.

By creating a common information platform, countries with multi-national naval and air formations spanning the Pacific can effectively establish regional defense boundaries. For instance, if a U.S. Navy drone were to discover a Chinese submarine using towed array sonar approaching the Philippines, it could immediately alert ships from Japan, South Korea, and Canada, transmitting the threat data to unmanned aerial vehicles from all allied nations. If a South Korean drone detects China launching anti-ship missiles from outside the radar surveillance range, it could process the threat data in real-time and transmit time-sensitive information to other aerial, naval, and ground nodes, allowing allied ship commanders to respond to the imminent threat effectively.

These are some of the significant aspects in the current escalating tensions in the South China Sea, potentially leading to further coordination and military actions among the U.S., Philippines, and their allies in the region.