The recent simultaneous activities of three aircraft carriers by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy have created a sensation. Among the three aircraft carriers involved in these activities, the “Liaoning,” and “Shandong” are currently in service, while the “Fujian” is still in the sea trial phase. The movements of the three aircraft carriers have been closely watched by military observers.
According to data from social media, as of last week, the “Liaoning” was active in the Philippine Sea, and the “Shandong” was near Hainan Island. Meanwhile, the “Fujian” left the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai and conducted a new round of sea trials in the Bohai Sea. Satellite images from September 18 showed all three aircraft carriers had set sail. They were accompanied by multiple support ships and escort vessels, possibly including at least one submarine. At the same time, another fleet consisting of two destroyers, one frigate, and one supply ship was operating in the Sea of Japan.
By September 23, it appeared that the “Fujian” had completed its fourth sea trial and returned to Shanghai port. Even though the “Fujian” has not been commissioned yet, these deployments indicate the rapid expansion of the Chinese navy. The simultaneous sailing of the “Liaoning” and “Shandong” has become increasingly common in recent times.
Meanwhile, American and allied aircraft carriers have been deploying more frequently in the Indo-Pacific region. After completing a mission in the Middle East, the USS Roosevelt (CVN-71) appeared in the South China Sea last week. Over the past year, the U.S. Pacific Fleet has largely maintained the presence of two carrier strike groups in the western Pacific. This is closely related to China’s high-profile claims of sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, including highly disputed areas, leading to escalated conflicts.
Recently, tensions between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal have escalated. From the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels obstructing Philippine supply ships to malicious ship collisions, even Chinese naval vessels have become involved. The appearance of the Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group in the South China Sea can easily be interpreted as endorsing these conflicts and signaling potential larger conflicts in the future to all countries with vested interests in the region.
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that last week, the “Liaoning” and its accompanying ships were found sailing in waters near the eastern coast of Taiwan. Subsequently, Japan’s Defense Ministry stated that the aircraft carrier transited through a narrow strait between the Japanese islands of Okinawa and Nakanoshima for the first time.
The deployment of aircraft carriers in the Philippine Sea provides the Chinese military with the capability to potentially launch attacks against Taiwan from the east and counter potential attacks from the deep Pacific. This can be seen as a manifestation of China’s so-called anti-access/area denial strategy. In recent years, the activities of the Chinese navy and air force have been increasingly visible in the Philippine Sea, moving closer to the less well-defended eastern waters of Taiwan.
Since President Lai Ching-te took office in Taiwan this summer, the Chinese navy has intensified its harassment activities near Taiwan. In early September, the Chinese navy conducted its largest amphibious landing exercise to date along the southeastern coast of China. Taiwan warns that China’s intensive military activities make assessing whether the Chinese military is about to launch substantive military actions more complex and difficult. The expansion and normalization of Chinese military activities have blurred the lines of gray-zone operations, leaving Taiwan potentially exhausted from constant vigilance. If China were to launch a sudden attack, Taiwan could be caught off guard due to insufficient reaction time. U.S. and other Western officials have hinted multiple times that this scenario could happen around 2027.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-hsuan said that Taiwan needs to enhance its capability to respond to “potential emergencies,” and the response time for Taiwan “cannot be as long as we once imagined.” With the expansion of Chinese military activities, it is difficult to determine when training will transition to large-scale exercises and then to war.
Transitioning from large-scale exercises to actual military operations is not uncommon. The Chinese military is expanding the scale and complexity of its exercises, with maritime exercises being the most prominent. China’s aircraft carrier capabilities are trying to break through all previous limitations, becoming a significant tool for creating potential incidents. At the same time, in the Sea of Japan, Chinese forces are conducting surface and aerial operations, including reconnaissance aircraft violating Japanese airspace. Tokyo called this incident the first of its kind.
The aircraft carrier activities highlight a clear sign that the Chinese navy is attempting to project power even further beyond China’s borders, including the first island chain and even the second island chain. The former stretches from the southern tip of Japan’s mainland islands to the South China Sea, while the latter includes Guam and other Pacific islands all the way to the western Pacific.
In summary, recent Chinese naval carrier activities emphasize China’s use of existing aircraft carriers to expand the scale and range of its daily operations and attempt to normalize them.
However, the simultaneous deployment of three aircraft carriers by China does not necessarily mean they possess aircraft carrier strike group combat capabilities. Firstly, the “Fujian” has not been commissioned yet. Although the other two aircraft carriers are in service, it remains unknown whether factors such as aircraft, command and control systems, fleet coordination, and tactical methods can adapt to real battlefield conditions and be effective in combat.
Not to mention that China’s young aircraft carrier fleet has never been tested in actual combat. The technical capabilities, operational use, and tactical methods of these ships may still be in the trial phase. Regardless of how convincing China may appear in its propaganda videos, it does not necessarily reflect its true combat capabilities. Especially in the face of the continually improving joint operational capabilities, battlefield command and control systems, intelligence, and powerful electronic warfare of the U.S. and regional allies, the appearance of China’s aircraft carrier strike groups seems less convincing.
Official Chinese media reports suggest that the “Fujian” could be commissioned in 2025, but more rational analysis believes it may be a reality after 2026. Stepping back, even with the inclusion of the “Fujian,” China’s aircraft carrier capability still significantly lags behind that of any of the 11 active nuclear-powered supercarriers of the U.S. Navy in a carrier strike group.