Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, suffered a setback in the recent lower house elections, losing its majority in parliament. This has forced them to seek cooperation with opposition parties to maintain their grip on power. Polls in Japan indicate that the main reason for the LDP’s defeat was the long-standing issue of political funding scandals, while experts point out other multiple reasons, leading Japan into a period of relative political instability.
On October 27, the LDP suffered a major defeat in the lower house elections, dropping from 247 seats before the election to 191 seats. The coalition partner, Komeito, also decreased from 32 seats to 24, resulting in a sharp decline in total seats for the ruling parties from 279 to 215. Without direct or indirect support from other opposition parties, the current ruling party will be unable to stay in power after the election scheduled for November 11.
On October 31, the secretary-generals and parliamentary strategy committee chairs of the LDP and the Democratic Party for the People held talks to start negotiating policies. The Democratic Party for the People proposed raising the income tax threshold from the current 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen, reducing gasoline taxes, and increasing public income. The party leader Yuichiro Tamaki previously stated that this policy is crucial for cooperation on budget proposals and other bills presented by the ruling party.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is preparing to maintain the ruling party’s power through “partial alliances” with the Democratic Party for the People on individual policies.
The Japanese government and ruling parties are also considering incorporating the policies proposed by the Democratic Party for the People into the comprehensive economic policy measures to be finalized in mid-November. The two parties may also discuss political reform issues, such as abolishing the practice of parties paying individual lawmakers for policy activities.
The Democratic Party for the People notified the LDP that they will vote for their representative Yuichiro Tamaki in the prime minister nomination election on November 11, even in the final decisive vote. The Secretary-General of the LDP expressed appreciation for this decision.
Polls conducted by Kyodo News and the Yomiuri Shimbun show that 65.7% of respondents believe that Ishiba does not need to resign. The Yomiuri Shimbun poll also indicates that 56% of respondents do not believe Ishiba should resign. Ishiba himself has stated that he will continue to fulfill his duties.
In the aforementioned polls, the cabinet’s approval ratings are 32.6% and 34%, with disapproval ratings of 52.2% and 51% respectively. Despite the drop in support and increase in disapproval, the majority still believes that Ishiba does not need to resign. Analysts suggest that the cabinet’s support ratings reflect the evaluation of the prime minister, while the issue of political funding scandals is a legacy of the previous administration for which the current prime minister should not be held responsible.
A joint poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Japan News Network showed that 90% of participants believed that political funding scandals were the main reason for the LDP’s failure, with 79% finding it hard to comprehend the provision of 20 million yen in activity funds to “unofficial” candidates. 48% of respondents opposed the coalition government formed by the Japan Innovation Party and the ruling party, while 29% supported it. 51% of participants opposed the participation of the Democratic Party for the People in the ruling coalition, with 25% in favor. 43% of respondents hope the ruling power led by the LDP will continue, while 40% prefer a change in power with opposition parties in control.
Although many Japanese citizens hope for a change in power, the reality may prove challenging. While the nine opposition parties collectively gained over half of the 250 seats, achieving a change in power would require almost all of the opposition parties to unite.
The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, won 148 seats. The Japan Innovation Party, with 38 seats, is politically conservative and has stated they will neither cooperate with the current ruling party nor participate in coalition-building with the opposition. This eliminates the possibility of an opposition coalition government.
Additionally, the Democratic Party for the People, the third-largest opposition party with 28 seats, shares similarities in policies with the LDP, making them a critical minority party.
Representative Yoshihiko Noda of the Constitutional Democratic Party met with Nobuyuki Baba, representative of the Japan Innovation Party, on October 30, requesting for future parliamentary elections to nominate himself.
The prime ministerial election scheduled for November 11 may have two outcomes: either the LDP and Komeito, together with the Democratic Party for the People, garner 243 votes, resulting in Ishiba’s election as Prime Minister; or most opposition parties do not cooperate with other parties, leading to the ruling party’s 215 votes against 156 votes for the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Communist Party, resulting in Ishiba’s election.
Analysts believe that the latter outcome is more likely. As none of the nominated candidates from each party received the required majority, a final decision vote will be held between the two candidates with the most votes, Ishiba and Noda.
Representative Yuichiro Tamaki of the Democratic Party for the People announced the party’s voting policy at an internal meeting, stating that the party will vote for its representative in the final decisive vote.
On the same day, the Japan Innovation Party representative expressed willingness to negotiate with the Constitutional Democratic Party on political reforms, not ruling out the possibility of endorsing the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party.
There have been calls within the LDP for Ishiba to resign in response to the political funding scandal. Concerns surround the possibility of abstentions during the vote. However, the chances of a Noda administration being formed due to defections within the LDP are considered very low.
Professor Ho Sishen of the Department of Japanese Literature at Fu Jen University commented that based on the current situation, Ishiba is likely to continue serving as the LDP leader and be elected as Prime Minister, maintaining the current administration until the upper house elections in July next year, with no significant uncertainties.
Veteran Japanese media figure Akiio Yaita stated that Japan will witness a new political shift in the upper house elections in July next year. A decisive victory for the LDP would boost their confidence in governance, while another defeat could lead to a change in power.
Reports have emerged that the LDP provided 20 million yen in party subsidies to support candidates who were penalized for political funding scandals. This revelation had a negative impact on the elections once brought to light.
Ishiba denied that the 20 million yen was intended for candidates, stating that the funds were provided to party branches to promote awareness of the LDP’s policies and were not to be used for election purposes.
Hiroshige Seko, who left the LDP due to the political funding scandal, was elected as an independent; Yasutoshi Nishimura, who was elected as an “unofficial” candidate after disciplinary action within the party, along with six other members, are expected to join the “LDP-Non-Affiliated” group in the lower house. Previously, the LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama discussed relevant matters with them to increase the LDP’s parliamentary seats.
There have been criticisms within the LDP regarding this approach, with opposition parties condemning it as a form of “disguised unofficial” tactics.
Ho Sishen remarked that Japanese voters view the under-the-table provision of 20 million yen in activity funds to unsanctioned candidates as election manipulation, suggesting that the LDP lacks determination in reforms. The public’s strong disapproval of this issue was reflected in the election results.
Yaita believed that apart from the political funding scandals, Ishiba made many strategic mistakes that led to the LDP’s defeat in the lower house elections. He fell into the trap set by the opposition parties, making political funding scandals the focus of debate. Yaita suggested that if Ishiba had steered clear of the opposition’s relentless focus on political funding scandals and discussed the nation’s future, the outcome might have been different.
He added that Japan faces numerous challenges, including the threat from China, among other significant issues. Ishiba’s failure to address these critical matters and solely focusing on the funding scandal became the election’s focal point. These issues had already been addressed through judiciary and party actions, making it a major misstep.
“Two other factors should not be overlooked. The LDP has been in power for a long time since 2012, during which various issues such as the pandemic, yen depreciation, and rising living costs arose. The public attributed their dissatisfaction mainly to the ruling party. Secondly, Ishiba lost support from the conservatives within the party. After taking office, he adopted a critical stance towards the conservative policies advocated by figures like Sanae Takaichi, suppressing conservative factions, which led to discontent among heavyweight conservative figures and disillusionment among LDP supporters,” Yaita stated.