The results of the Japan Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election were announced on September 27th, with former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba emerging victorious in the second round of voting. Ishiba’s win solidifies him as Japan’s next Prime Minister, to be officially confirmed in the parliamentary vote on October 1st, with the new cabinet expected to take office on the same day.
In this LDP presidential election, a record-high of 9 candidates registered to run, marking a historical moment for the party. As predicted by many, none of the 9 candidates in the first round of voting received more than half of the votes. The first and second highest vote-getters, Sanae Takaichi and Shigeru Ishiba, proceeded to the second round of voting.
In the second round of voting, Ishiba secured 189 votes from party lawmakers and 26 votes from prefectural representatives, while Takaichi received 173 votes from lawmakers and 21 votes from prefectural representatives. Ultimately, Ishiba’s lead in votes crowned him as the new LDP president and Japan’s 102nd Prime Minister.
Ishiba, aged 67, has challenged the LDP presidential election 5 times, with his lifelong aspiration to become Japan’s Prime Minister finally fulfilled through this fifth attempt.
In the past, Ishiba has run for the presidency four times, losing in 2008 to Taro Aso, being overtaken by Shinzo Abe in the 2012 runoff, losing in a one-on-one duel against Abe in 2018, and falling short to Yoshihide Suga in 2020.
Ahead of the election, media reports in Japan and Taiwan had heavily speculated on the possibility of Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s first female Prime Minister. Therefore, Ishiba’s victory came as a surprise to many, leading some experts to reconsider their expectations.
How did Ishiba manage to secure victory in this intense election battle? Chen Wenjia, Director of the National Research Center at Kai Nan University in Taiwan, stated to Epoch Times that Ishiba’s clear domestic policies garnered widespread support, particularly his regional economic revitalization plan. His policies address long-term issues such as regional economic decline, population reduction, and aging, setting him apart from other candidates primarily focused on Tokyo and major cities.
Chen further explained that Ishiba’s policies cater to the needs of rural areas, local governments, and small to medium-sized enterprises, which significantly boosted his support among local party members.
Former Chief of the Sankei Shimbun Taipei Bureau and seasoned Japanese media figure Akio Yaita told Epoch Times that Ishiba’s election indicates a departure from the Abe administration’s policies after over a decade, as many felt it was time for a change towards a more moderate conservative route.
Assistant researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Security Studies, Wang Yanlin, expressed that Ishiba had a clear understanding of his existing power base and his supporters likely consist of middle-aged to elderly individuals with established careers and financial capabilities, who are concerned about domestic politics, party affairs, and diplomacy.
“In this context, the biggest dissatisfaction or concern of these voters towards politics, or the biggest worry of the LDP, tends to lie in party affairs, political reforms, and similar areas. Therefore, Ishiba boldly proposed significant reforms in political funding and party member voting rights to secure the support of these voters.”
Yaita stated that Ishiba has been considered a non-mainstream figure within the LDP for years, even during the Abe administration. While Abe emphasized nationalism and internationalization, similar to the United States, Ishiba veers towards a more diverse, international values-oriented path akin to figures like Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Yaita believes that Ishiba’s rise to power may lead to potential shifts in Japan’s stance in the Indo-Pacific region regarding countering China and supporting Taiwan, sparking concerns among many.
However, Chen Wenjia analyzed that standing up against China and supporting Taiwan has become a global consensus, and Ishiba is likely to carefully maintain relations with Taiwan while steadily advancing economic cooperation in areas such as technological innovation and supply chain security. Ishiba also holds a critical view towards China’s actions in the East and South China Seas, advocating for Japan to strengthen its defense capabilities and cooperate with the U.S. and other allies to address China’s expansionist behavior. This stance has garnered support for him among the conservative factions within the LDP.
Having previously served as Defense Minister, Ishiba’s expertise in defense and security fields gives him a unique advantage within the party. Therefore, Chen Wenjia believes Ishiba has profound insights into Japan’s defense policies and strongly supports enhancing the Japan-U.S. security alliance. Regarding policies towards China, it is believed that Ishiba will continue to advocate for a more proactive defense policy in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s expansion and threats.
Before the election, Ishiba visited Taiwan in August, meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te. Participants revealed that what was initially planned as a 45-minute meeting turned into a deep discussion exceeding 90 minutes, exchanging views on the international situation facing Taiwan and Japan, economic cooperation, and more.
Chen Wenjia noted that Ishiba’s visit to Taiwan before the election signifies his emphasis on the importance of regional defense along the First Island Chain. Therefore, he believes that after Ishiba assumes office as Prime Minister, he will continue to promote diplomatic and military cooperation between Taiwan and Japan.