On September 7, Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shinzo Abe, announced his resignation, attracting attention from Japanese society and around the world.
Experts believe that after Abe steps down, it is expected that a better leader will emerge in Japan, and the strategic mutual distrust between China and Japan may increase, partly filling the gap left by Trump’s pressure on the Chinese Communist Party.
According to reports from Japan’s Jiji Press on September 6, 18 out of the 47 local branches of the Liberal Democratic Party have requested an early party leader election, seemingly pressuring Abe to resign. On September 7, Abe held a press conference to officially announce his resignation as the party leader, which also means stepping down as the Prime Minister.
Abe’s main reason for resigning is believed to be the double defeat suffered by the Liberal Democratic Party in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election in June and the House of Councillors election in July, marking the first time since the party’s founding in 1955 that it failed to secure a majority in both houses of the parliament.
The Liberal Democratic Party is expected to hold a leadership election in early October. According to a Nikkei survey, about 40% of respondents believe that Abe did not need to step down, but potential successors within the party seem to be emerging, with the victor likely becoming the next Japanese Prime Minister.
Abe’s term as party leader was supposed to last until the end of September 2027, but following his resignation, the Liberal Democratic Party will hold an early election to choose a new leader.
Reports from the BBC on September 9 indicate that the new leader of Japan will face the challenge of uniting a weakened political party and must be someone who can regain voter support for the Liberal Democratic Party.
The report also points out that the “most important task for the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party is to win back these voters.” Currently, Japanese politics is gradually shifting towards the far-right, with the nationalist party “Sanseito” emerging as one of the biggest winners in recent House of Councillors elections. A significant portion of Sanseito’s voter base consists of conservative voters who originally supported the Liberal Democratic Party.
Japanese media speculate that potential successors could be pro-Taiwan, former Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Sanae Takaichi, or Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Shinjiro Koizumi.
According to a Reuters poll, Takaichi has a 26% approval rating, while Koizumi closely follows with 22%. If Takaichi wins, Japan will have its first female Prime Minister; if Koizumi is elected, he will become the second youngest Prime Minister in Japanese history, after Ito Hirobumi.
In an interview with the Epoch Times, Abe Yabe, a Japanese media figure and executive director of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Think Tank, stated that Koizumi, as Abe’s successor, belongs to the mainstream faction, which currently favors him. However, Koizumi was initially leading in polls last year but dropped to third place due to poor responses later. Yabe believes that for him to win, a strong campaign team is crucial. Otherwise, his lack of ability, experience, and knowledge may resurface, giving Takaichi a chance to win and become Japan’s first female Prime Minister.
Wang Hongren, a professor of political science at the University of Success, told the Epoch Times that Koizumi, being 20 years younger than Takaichi, may face obstacles in terms of experience. However, Takaichi’s radical views may not necessarily garner support from moderate lawmakers. In terms of the political spectrum, Koizumi’s slightly more moderate stance might attract more votes, increasing his chances of winning.
Wang predicts that next month’s election may follow a similar pattern as last time, with no candidate securing a majority of party member votes in the first round. The second round will depend on support from parliamentary members, especially the dynamics within the House of Representatives supporting these two candidates.
Bloomberg columnist Gearoid Reidy wrote that Japan faces issues such as aging population, declining workforce, and high inflation domestically, while geopolitically, China and Russia are more authoritarian than before, and the United States is moving away from its traditional role of security policing in democratic camps. A strong leader is crucial for Japan in such challenging times.
In response to this, Chen Wenjia, director of the National Research Center at Taiwan’s Open South University, told the Epoch Times that Bloomberg’s commentary warns that the Liberal Democratic Party should not prioritize factionalism or compromise as its highest principle.
Chen mentioned that in terms of policy, if conservative lawmakers dominate and unite, Takaichi may have a better chance. If party member votes are emphasized and societal expectations for reform rise, Koizumi’s probability might also increase.
Abe’s resignation has drawn significant attention from Chinese media and academia. The NHK reported on September 7 that the Chinese government had not yet responded to Abe’s resignation, but Chinese media quickly issued reports on the matter.
The report mentioned that Beijing once saw Abe as a “cooperative partner to improve Sino-Japanese relations” since becoming Prime Minister. According to the Global Times, Lu Hao, head of the Comprehensive Strategic Research Office for Japan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that the new Japanese Prime Minister will face new uncertainties in Sino-Japanese relations, especially in high-level coordination and risk control. If a politically conservative and hawkish leader takes power, Japan’s negative and destructive policies toward China may be heightened, potentially leading to a deterioration in bilateral relations.
Yabe stated that Sino-Japanese relations were already very poor, and further deterioration wouldn’t change much.
Chen also believes that with Abe resigning, the strategic mutual distrust between China and Japan may increase, leading to escalated tensions in the Taiwan Strait and technological control, with the risk of worsening relations outweighing any possibilities for improvement. If Takaichi wins, the historical, political, and economic security frameworks might be accelerated, resulting in a cooling of high-level exchanges in the short term; if Koizumi is elected, his tone may be softer, but there may still be challenges in semiconductors, cyber security, and interactions with Taiwan.
Regarding Koizumi’s lack of strong criticism towards China in public, Wang thinks that Koizumi focuses more on the Japan-US alliance and does not have a complete discourse on China-related issues, so he avoids the topic. Wang believes that Koizumi should strengthen his stance during the election campaign. On the other hand, Takaichi is known for her tough stance against China, even demanding the removal of Beijing’s floating markers in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.
Abe’s resignation as Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party has sparked interest in how it may impact Taiwan-Japan relations.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan) stated that Taiwan maintains broad and in-depth exchanges with various sectors in Japan, which have made significant progress during Abe’s tenure. The resignation of Abe is considered a domestic political matter for Japan, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no further comments on the issue.
Guo Yuren, Deputy Director of the Institute of National Strategy, mentioned to Taiwan media that since the conservative factions in the Liberal Democratic Party have failed in previous attempts to integrate, the likelihood of a reformist candidate winning the new presidency is higher. Whether it’s Shinjiro Koizumi or Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, both have not clearly stated their position on Taiwan policies.
Guo assessed that regardless of who becomes the next Japanese Prime Minister, there might not be significant adjustments to Taiwan policy, especially given the considerable influence of the Trump administration on international affairs. The future Japanese Prime Minister is likely to be in a minority government, relatively weaker and more susceptible to American influence, compared to Chinese influence.
In response to Abe’s stepping down, Abe Yabe wrote on Facebook saying, “It is absolutely a good thing for Taiwan. Because Shinzo Abe is one of the most pro-China and indifferent to Taiwan Japanese Prime Ministers in the past decade.”
When interviewed by the Epoch Times, Yabe explained that in the midst of Trump’s containment of the Chinese Communist Party, Japan could serve as a key player in the encirclement or become an active vanguard. This distinction is significant. He believes that Sanae Takaichi will be a major player in Trump’s containment of the Chinese Communist Party, while Koizumi may not be a weak point, unlike Abe. Abe essentially became a weak link, and filling that gap now holds great significance.