Recently, the Chinese aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong fleet appeared outside the First Island Chain, with Liaoning even crossing the Second Island Chain. This exercise not only poses a political threat to Japan but also reveals China’s possible suicidal naval battle plan. If China were to start a war in the Taiwan Strait, it could possibly use the two aircraft carrier fleets to delay the speed and intensity of US military and its allies from coming to Taiwan’s aid. Can the US military effectively respond?
China’s Fujian aircraft carrier has begun to fully imitate the US military, meaning that it has abandoned the plan to mimic the former Soviet aircraft carriers, making Liaoning and Shandong carriers redundant, with their fate predictable.
If China is preparing for war, these two weak carriers are most likely to be used as bait, sent outside the First Island Chain to attract the firepower of the US military and its allies, delaying the US military’s support for Taiwan by sea and air, to buy time for China’s amphibious landing operation against Taiwan. In recent days, the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet should be practicing this plan.
China may be trying to replicate a battle scenario from the Pacific War. In October 1944, during the US counterattack in the Philippines, the historic Battle of Leyte Gulf occurred when the Japanese Navy made a desperate gambit, deploying its remaining naval forces in a last stand. After the war, the Japanese Combined Fleet commander, Vice Admiral Takeo Kurita, said, “If we lose the Philippines and the fleet survives, then our sea passage north and south will be severed. If the fleet stays in Japanese waters, it will lack fuel supply. If it stays in the South Seas, it will lack ammunition… there will be no meaning in saving this fleet.”
At that time, the Japanese Navy had only one aircraft carrier, three light carriers, and two aircraft carriers converted from battleships, with a total of only 108 aircraft, unable to fight the US Navy directly. Therefore, they acted as bait, hoping to lure the main US aircraft carriers away from the battlefield. Meanwhile, the other three Japanese fleets, consisting mainly of battleships and cruisers, were poised to attack the US landing fleets.
The combined US and Australian forces involved in the war included 9 aircraft carriers, 8 light carriers, 18 escort carriers, about 1,500 aircraft including land-based planes, battleships, cruisers, 179 destroyers, and about 2,000 auxiliary ships including landing and supply vessels.
The Japanese aircraft carrier fleet successfully attracted the main US aircraft carrier fleet, but the other fleets failed to complete their attack missions for various reasons, resulting in heavy losses. Ultimately, the US forces successfully landed in the Philippines, while the remaining Japanese fleet suffered heavy losses, making it difficult to contend for sea dominance against the US Navy.
China faces a similar situation. If attempting to compete with the US in the Pacific, it must break through the First Island Chain, otherwise the Chinese navy will be choked off. If China’s attack on Taiwan fails, its naval vessels, whether at sea or in port, will likely be annihilated.
China hesitates to attack Taiwan as it fears rapid US reinforcements. It is likely that China is now considering copying the tactics employed by the Japanese, using the two redundant aircraft carriers as bait to delay the US military’s actions.
According to a notice from the Japanese Ministry of Defense, on the early morning of May 27th, the Liaoning aircraft carrier crossed the Miyako Strait into the Pacific and then headed north, quickly arriving in the eastern waters of Luzon island in the Philippines.
This location has been chosen as a tactical position by the US aircraft carriers, able to block the Bashi Strait and support Taiwan. The Liaoning did not stay in the eastern waters of Taiwan but proceeded directly to the eastern waters of the Philippines, hovering for several days, likely simulating the battle for the best tactical position against the US aircraft carriers.
Subsequently, the Liaoning aircraft carrier turned northwest, approaching the southeast islands of Japan. Around 6 pm on June 7th, the Liaoning aircraft carrier appeared in the waters between the eastern side of Iwo Jima and the western side of Minamitori Island, beyond the Second Island Chain.
If the US deploys a second aircraft carrier fleet in the waters near the Philippines, its tactical position should be in the waters off the southeast of Okinawa, aiming to control the Miyako Strait.
On June 7th, the Shandong aircraft carrier fleet appeared approximately 550 kilometers to the southeast of Okinawa, likely engaging in an exercise to compete with the second US aircraft carrier fleet for tactical position. Meanwhile, the Liaoning sailed past Iwo Jima, simulating a threat to the eastern side of the US aircraft carriers, trying to force them to be alert in multiple directions.
At that time, the USS Washington aircraft carrier was just leaving Yokosuka, Japan, heading south to begin this year’s cruising mission. The two Chinese aircraft carriers simulated a pincer attack on the US aircraft carrier fleet, threatening both the US and Japanese islands.
China knows its limited combat capabilities and cannot directly confront US aircraft carriers. It is estimated that China is only trying to force the US aircraft carriers away from their designated tactical positions or distract them from their planned operations.
The Chinese Ministry of National Defense publicly announced the exercises of the two aircraft carriers, claiming they were testing their “capabilities for distant sea defense and joint operations.” However, with the First Island Chain in place, the presence of the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet outside the chain serves no defensive purpose; once a war breaks out, there will be no return, making the exercise more of a suicide attack rather than defense.
Due to the limitations of the ski-jump deck, the J-15 fighter jets cannot perform effective airstrikes, posing little direct threat to the US fleets and Japan. However, the presence of the Chinese aircraft carriers can disrupt US support for Taiwan’s maritime and airspace operations.
Images released by the Japanese Ministry of Defense showed approximately 10 J-15 fighters on the Liaoning deck and about 8 on the Shandong deck. The J-15 for ski-jump takeoffs is likely to be phased out and produced in fewer numbers, with China currently testing the J-15T fighter for catapult-assisted takeoff and the J-15D electronic warfare aircraft for the Fujian aircraft carrier.
The design concept of the former Soviet aircraft carriers aimed to expand the air defense range from the coastline to further distances, not for launching airstrikes from the sea. With a limited number of carrier-based aircraft, the Liaoning and Shandong carriers can only provide some interference.
The US naval fleet posses strong air defense capabilities and can effectively deal with the Chinese aircraft carriers but may be distracted as a result. The US military must eliminate the Chinese aircraft carrier fleet first to secure the safety of the waters and airspace outside the First Island Chain.
Before the US military can effectively support Taiwan, they must confront the possibility of encounters with J-15 fighters. There is also the risk of Chinese warships and submarines attacking US vessels. The US military needs to neutralize all J-15 fighters, promptly disable the Chinese carriers and escorts, and hunt down Chinese submarines to fully support Taiwan. The Chinese aircraft carriers will likely engage in a maneuver to delay the US forces as much as possible.
Once a war breaks out, the Miyako and Bashi Straits will be immediately blockaded by the US and its allies. Chinese supply ships and other warships will be unable to cross the First Island Chain to reinforce the frontline. All Chinese warships outside the First Island Chain will have no chance of returning and will either serve as bait or carry out suicide missions, buying time for China to advance on Taiwan.
Before China’s attack on Taiwan, the aircraft carrier fleet must be deployed outside the First Island Chain. If Chinese landing forces and ships gather, Chinese warplanes are deployed near the coast, and missile forces are on the move, the deployment of the aircraft carrier fleet outside the First Island Chain signals an impending large-scale conflict. The US military should easily discern these signs.
US bases need to prepare for a possible saturation missile attack by China, including potential strikes from Dong Feng-17, Dong Feng-21, and Dong Feng-26 missiles. Additionally, China’s Type 054A frigates may break away from the aircraft carriers to launch anti-ship missiles at the US fleet, initiating suicide attacks.
The Type 054A frigate can only carry the less capable Hongqi-16 air defense missiles compared to the Hongqi-9, making it practically defenseless against missile interceptions. The Hongqi-9 was previously revealed to be ineffective in recent Indo-Pak conflicts. The Type 054A frigate may be used as fast attack craft, launching suicide attacks against the US navy.
In this exercise, China has dispatched at least 5 Type 054A frigates, with at least 4 reaching beyond the First Island Chain. Equipped with the C-803 anti-ship missiles, which are considered outdated and have previously been intercepted by the US and its allies when used by Iran and Houthis in Yemen, these frigates are likely used as bait to delay US airstrikes, buying time for the Liaoning and Shandong carriers before they come under attack. Simultaneously, these frigates may collaborate with land-based anti-ship missiles’ attacks.
Chinese submarines are not as advanced as their US counterparts, making it challenging for them to defend the carriers. They may be tasked with risky missions to attack the US fleet but are likely to be detected before reaching their targets, mainly causing disruption and delays.
Chinese Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers are equipped with YJ-18 anti-ship missiles, with the Type 055 featuring YJ-21 ballistic anti-ship missiles with extended range, which may also be employed. However, the best air defense weapon onboard the Chinese destroyers is the Hongqi-9 missile, requiring them to be accompanying the carriers and unable to act independently.
In this exercise, China has deployed at least 7 destroyers, with at least 6 reaching beyond the First Island Chain. Once the conflict escalates, these destroyers will face the same dilemmas as the frigates, lacking retreat and resupply options, likely to be destroyed in US airstrikes.
In recent exercises, the US military has repeatedly validated various anti-ship weapons through sinking exercises, with precision-guided bombs as the most lethal, designed to hit at the waterline of enemy vessels, causing rapid sinking. During the 2024 RIMPAC exercise, various ship-launched and air-launched anti-ship missiles successfully hit a retired 38,900-ton amphibious assault ship as targets, with B-2 bombers eventually delivering precision-guided bombs to sink it swiftly.
Israel’s airstrike tactics against Iran were taught by the US military, which has superior weapons and airstrike capabilities. By monitoring and predicting the movements of the Chinese military, the US military can promptly deploy to eliminate Chinese warships outside the First Island Chain. The US will likely disable Chinese warships’ radars and communication systems using long-range anti-ship missiles and then switch to rapid sinking weapons.
China is not concerned about the lives of its soldiers and will not consider the war casualty ratio or the cost of operations as the US military does. The Chinese navy deployed to engage outside the First Island Chain is not involved in a real naval warfare mission but rather being used as disposable bait. For the survival of the Chinese naval officers and soldiers, surrender may be the best option to avoid becoming cannon fodder. If they wait until their ships are sunk, chances of survival diminish, relying on US and Japanese ships for recovery and rescue.
Not all of China’s destroyers will be sent beyond the First Island Chain. The assaulting fleet towards Taiwan will require a considerable number of destroyer escorts while also defending the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. China may dispatch more Type 054A frigates and conventional submarines to carry out suicide attacks. When Chinese conventional submarines pass through the Miyako Strait, they are easily detected, while the Type 054A frigates provide better identification.
With China constantly threatening the Japanese islands, Japan will be on high alert and prepared. If China attacks Japanese bases, Japan’s F-35A fighter jets, destroyers, submarines, land-based anti-ship missiles, and others can aid the US in counter-attacks, accelerating the destruction of the Chinese fleet.
Translation by Lingvanex 2021. Powered by: DeepL.