Shangri-La Dialogue: US and China Diverge on Military Hotspot

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Over the weekend at the Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Austin and Chinese Minister of National Defense, Dong Jun, expressed differing views on regional security issues.

While military conflicts have occurred in Europe and the Middle East, Austin reaffirmed the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, emphasizing US partnerships and cooperative efforts in the region. In his speech on June 1st, Austin touched on US strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region with limited mention of China. He emphasized resolving disputes through dialogue instead of coercion, conflict, or so-called punishment, subtly alluding to the recent military exercise “Joint Sword 2024A” conducted around Taiwan. The Chinese military claimed this was punishment for pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Austin pointed out that China’s actions towards the Philippines during a resupply mission near Thitu Reef were dangerous and clear harassment.

On the other hand, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun emphasized China’s willingness to cooperate with other countries and abide by international law. Simultaneously representing Asia-Pacific countries, Dong Jun expressed the capability and confidence to address regional issues while condemning neighboring countries for seeking external support and displaying strong disdain and anger towards the Philippines.

Dong Jun further threatened resolute action to curb Taiwan independence, implying limited restraint in response to provocations around Thitu Reef and the South China Sea. He also accused the US of testing China’s red lines on the Taiwan issue.

During a Q&A session, Dong Jun showed disdain by spending a lengthy discussion on the Taiwan issue rather than the Middle East and Ukraine topics, prompting a mild jest from Singapore’s Defense Minister Wong Yong Hong about his unprofessional behavior.

Wong expressed a different perspective, mockingly referring to Dong Jun’s “amateur” status as the Chinese Defense Minister. Referring to the Ukraine conflict, Wong emphasized the need to differentiate between Ukraine and Taiwan, as well as Russia and China.

Dong Jun condemned the concept of freedom of navigation operations, claiming no damage had occurred to civilian vessels’ freedom of navigation in the South China Sea but vehemently criticized recent incidents near Thitu Reef involving the Philippines. He likened it to a pedestrian hitting a car on the road and then playing the victim to extort the driver. In reality, the encounter involved Chinese coast guard ships using water cannons and laser guns against Philippine vessels approaching disputed islands and reefs.

Notably, the US and China demonstrate stark differences in describing the region, with Austin using “Indo-Pacific,” including South Asia, while Dong Jun uses “Asia-Pacific,” excluding South Asia.

Austin reiterated the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific region and its newly integrated security in the region. Stressing the importance of the Indo-Pacific region, Austin stated the region remains a top priority for the US despite historical conflicts in Europe and the Middle East. He highlighted ongoing investments to fulfill commitments to regional allies and partners.

Austin emphasized a new fusion of security aspects around the Indo-Pacific region, building a stronger, more flexible, and capable network of partnerships. Citing the Australia-Japan reciprocal access agreement as an example, he emphasized this integration is not just a simple alliance but a series of complementary initiatives and institutions driven by a shared vision and mutual obligations.

When asked how the US would respond if a confrontation between China and the Philippines resulted in Filipino casualties during a resupply mission near Thitu Reef, Austin refrained from speculating on hypothetical scenarios but affirmed the US’s unwavering commitment to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. He also referenced Philippine President Marcos’ calls for upholding the rule of law in the South China Sea, supporting his stance.

In a discussion on NATO’s eastward expansion leading to the crisis in Ukraine by Chinese military researcher Cao Yanzhong, Austin disagreed with the perspective, attributing the Ukraine crisis to Russian President Putin’s illegal invasion and aggressive actions. Austin received applause for his response.

Unexpectedly, Ukrainian President Zelensky and Defense Minister Umelov appeared at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Zelensky stressed the importance of starting a fair and peaceful process for Ukraine, noting that Russia does not seek an end to the war, urging global leaders to attend the upcoming Global Peace Summit on the Ukraine conflict in Switzerland.

Zelensky criticized China for pressuring other countries and leaders not to participate in the summit, aiding Russia in sabotaging the peace summit organized by Switzerland.

Zelensky pointed out that Russia is actively disrupting planned activities, engaging in intimidation and deceit globally and collaborating diplomatically to undermine the peace summit.

Hours later, Zelensky explicitly mentioned China, accusing Russia of using China’s influence and diplomacy to undermine the peace summit. He disclosed intelligence indicating that weapons and equipment components entering Russia from China implicitly violate Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s previous assurance of not providing defense support to Russia.

Both the US and Ukraine have raised flags about China’s involvement in the conflict against Russia. US Deputy Secretary of State Campbell highlighted China’s support for Russia’s military capabilities, warning of a comprehensive effort backed by Chinese leadership to aid Russia in different military aspects.

However, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun denied Beijing’s role in assisting Russia, claiming China had not provided weapons to any party and rigorously controlled the export of dual-use products. He reiterated their commitment to peace and dialogue.

Dialogue? What dialogue? Zelensky expressed frustration as Beijing officials refused to meet with him, including President Xi Jinping, indicating a lack of clear communication channels between Ukraine and China due to China’s reluctance.

Despite Ukraine’s persistent efforts to engage with Chinese officials, including at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier in the year, Zelensky did not have an opportunity to meet with the Chinese representative Dong Jun during the Shangri-La Dialogue.

Following his speech at the Shangri-La Defense Forum in Singapore, Zelensky unexpectedly arrived in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, on Sunday evening without prior notice. On Monday, he received a cordial welcome at the presidential palace, meeting with Philippine President Marcos and expressing hope for the Philippines’ participation in the Global Peace Summit and plans to establish a Ukrainian embassy in Manila. Marcos pledged to continue efforts towards peace and ending the war.

By announcing his readiness to name China in the conflict, Zelensky highlighted China’s potential involvement in aiding Russia, indicating a potential collaboration that undermines peace efforts.

As tensions escalate in the region, the situation remains precarious, with key global players maneuvering to advance their interests, potentially impacting the course of the conflict.