The United States presidential election will be held on November 5, with the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, locked in a close race. Due to the complex voting and counting methods, the election results may not be clear until several days after voting ends.
In the 2020 election, some states experienced what is known as the “Red Mirage,” where Trump was leading on election night, only to be surpassed by Joe Biden in a “Blue Shift.” Trump still insists that there was election fraud.
One explanation is that Democratic voters often reside in densely populated urban areas where the counting process takes longer. Another explanation is that Democrats are more willing to vote by mail, which takes longer to count than in-person votes on election day.
Seven key states are likely to determine the election outcome, each with its own rules for handling and tallying votes. It is expected that the election results will be announced in the days following election day.
In Arizona, mail-in voting is very popular with nearly 90% of voters casting their ballots through the mail in 2020. Election officials can begin processing and tallying mail-in votes as soon as they receive them, but the results can only be announced an hour after voting closes.
Any mail-in ballots delivered on election day must wait until the polling stations close to be processed, which can be a significant number. In Maricopa County in 2022, so-called “late early voting” made up one-fifth of all ballots, potentially taking days to tally.
Georgia sees high turnout in early in-person voting, with officials estimating that 65% to 70% of votes will be cast early. Absentee or mail-in ballots may make up about 5% of the total, starting processing two weeks before the election but only getting tallied on election day.
According to state law, all early voting, including in-person and mail-in ballots, must be tallied and reported by 8:00 PM Eastern Time on election night. Officials aim to have all ballots, including those cast on election day, tallied before midnight.
Overseas and military ballots will be accepted within three days after the election, given they are postmarked before November 5. With over 21,000 such ballots requested, the election results may not be conclusive until these are processed.
Michigan implemented early in-person voting for the first time, allowing areas with over 5,000 residents to start processing and tallying mail-in votes eight days before election day. Smaller districts can begin the day before November 5.
State officials hope these changes will expedite result reporting compared to 2020.
In Nevada in 2020, the counting process was slow, delaying the announcement of Biden’s victory in the state by five days.
Local officials say they have made some changes since 2020 to speed up the counting process in 2024.
Significantly, counties were allowed to start processing and tallying mail-in votes on October 21. Additionally, staff can begin tallying early in-person votes starting at 8:00 AM Pacific Time on election day without waiting for polling station closures.
However, Nevada may still withhold results initially, given the increasing popularity of mail-in voting, being the only battleground state to accept late-arriving mail-in ballots.
Votes postmarked before November 5 that arrive within four days will still be counted. Historically, these late-arriving ballots tend to favor Democrats, potentially narrowing the gap for Kamala Harris after election day.
State election officials will begin processing and scanning mail-in votes before election day. The earliest results post-poll closure are likely to be from mail-in and early in-person votes. Election day ballots will be counted throughout the night, with full results expected before midnight.
Due to mail-in ballots, Kamala Harris may lead early on, but Trump could catch up as election day votes are tallied.
If the election results closely match pre-election polls, North Carolina’s outcome may take a week or longer to determine. Absentee votes received before November 5 and overseas and military ballots will be tallied within a ten-day post-election counting period. In 2020, North Carolina wasn’t called for Trump until November 13, ten days after the election.
The state was a crucial battleground in 2020. In the aftermath of election day, Pennsylvania didn’t have a clear winner for four days as officials were still tallying a large backlog of mail-in votes. It’s one of the few states that doesn’t allow election workers to process or tally mail-in votes before 7:00 AM Eastern Time on election day, potentially delaying results.
As Democratic voters predominantly vote by mail, early in-person voting results may show Trump in the lead, but with more mail-in votes counted, Trump’s lead is expected to diminish.
This pattern in 2020 led to Trump alleging election fraud. A new law this year requires most counties to report how many mail-in ballots are outstanding by midnight on election night to stem conspiracy theories.
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is one of the few states that won’t allow election officials to process or tally mail-in votes before election day, potentially causing delays in reporting early voting results.
Additionally, many of the state’s largest cities transport mail-in votes to a central hub for processing and tallying. This could result in a large number of votes being reported in the wee hours after the polls close.
In 2020, Milwaukee reported nearly 170,000 absentee ballots around 3:30 AM Central Time, causing a surge in votes for Biden and shifting the lead, prompting Trump and allies to allege fraud. Some argue that this growth was expected due to how the city processed the ballots and Democrats’ preference for mail-in voting.
(Reference: Reuters)