The Lowy Institute researcher Rahman Yaacob said that the Chinese Communist Party is adopting “grey zone tactics” near the disputed Ren’ai Reef in the South China Sea.
According to Filipino officials, last week Chinese military attacked a Filipino vessel near the disputed Ren’ai Reef in the Spratly Islands, resulting in a sailor losing a finger.
Yaacob, a researcher in the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, stated in an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday (June 24th) that China is probing at Ren’ai Reef, but despite recent escalation, China strategically avoids triggering broader conflicts.
He added that the CCP tends to operate below the threshold of conventional warfare, using gray zone tactics against opponents, and this incident is unlikely to trigger the existing defense agreements between the U.S. and the Philippines.
The Rand Corporation defines gray zone tactics as “actions that fall outside the bounds of armed conflict but exceed normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities.”
In 2020, Chinese soldiers clashed with Indian forces in the disputed Himalayan region. Yaacob noted that despite 20 Indian soldiers being killed, no shots were fired, and it did not escalate into direct military conflict.
Filipino officials have refrained from invoking their mutual defense treaty with the United States, but they have condemned the CCP’s “illegal and aggressive actions” with their ships disrupting Philippine resupply missions.
“However, if China were to use projectile weapons, such as firing missiles at Filipino troops or using firearms, it could indeed trigger the defense treaty,” warned Yaacob.
The CCP has denied any wrongdoing.
Filipino officials have vowed to continue resisting China’s “reckless behavior” in the South China Sea. Last Friday, Filipino officials announced that they had issued a “challenge” to four Chinese military ships in the Balabac Strait in Filipino waters.
On Monday, Filipino Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated that China’s use of “aggressive and illegal force” disrupted Philippine resupply missions in the South China Sea, labeling the maritime clash as a deliberate act by China.
Teodoro added that the Philippines’ policy in the South China Sea remains unchanged. The Philippines will continue to supply troops stationed on Ren’ai Reef without disclosing mission schedules, which he emphasized do not require anyone’s permission or consent.
“However, we continue to seek a peaceful resolution to this issue. The Philippines is a responsible nation,” Teodoro said.
“I believe China is currently eager to avoid conventional war with the United States because it knows the terrible consequences it would bring,” said Yaacob. He also noted that the U.S. is dealing with conflicts in Eastern Europe (Russia-Ukraine) and the Middle East (Israel-Hamas).
Filipino President Marcos stated on Sunday that the Philippines will not provoke war, nor resort to force or intimidation.
Yaacob mentioned that while the current de-escalation between the Philippines, Beijing, and the U.S. is in the best interest of all parties, China may become more aggressive and attempt to seize Filipino vessels, potentially harming Filipino naval personnel.
“This is something that the U.S. and the Philippines must carefully consider,” he added.