The leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, has concluded his visit to three European countries without addressing major issues like the Russia-Ukraine war. Experts believe that Xi’s visit to Europe at this time is aimed at using the conflict in Russia and Ukraine to raise negotiation stakes, with the intention of provoking the United States and Western allies.
From May 5th to 10th, Xi Jinping visited France, Serbia, and Hungary. Chinese media have emphasized the “ironclad friendship” between China and Serbia, while describing the China-Hungary relationship entering a “golden channel,” and leading Europe to maintain the correct positioning of partnership.
France has long pursued an independent foreign policy, while Hungary and Serbia have good relations with the Chinese Communist Party but have had more strained interactions with the European Union. Xi Jinping’s strategic intent for his first visit in 2024 is believed to be clear: by inserting a wedge into the European Union, he aims to create a crack in the EU’s facade.
Serbian President Vucic claimed in an interview with CCTV on April 30th that he had extended 15 invitations to Xi Jinping to visit Serbia in various ways since 2016. Serbia has been a candidate country for the European Union since 2012, raising questions as to why they would choose to lean towards China. On the other hand, why did Xi Jinping refuse 15 invitations over 8 years and decide to visit Serbia this year?
Some scholars believe that actively taking on the role of an advance guard challenging the European Union on behalf of China and Russia is not a good choice for Serbia.
British international relations youth scholar Ignatius Lee stated in an interview with Dajiyuan that Xi Jinping’s agreement to visit Serbia does not necessarily indicate goodwill towards Serbia. Delaying the visit for so many years shows a lack of sincerity. Lee believes that Xi’s visit to Serbia and Hungary is intended to provoke the EU and Western allies rather than being the main goal, serving as a means to demonstrate that the initiative for the Russia-Ukraine conflict is fully in Beijing’s hands.
Regarding Serbia’s “reach out to the far and strike the near” strategy, Lee points out that both China and Russia prioritize major power politics, with small country politics being expendable bargaining chips at any time. If Serbia antagonizes its European neighbors, it will greatly damage their trust and willingness to accept Serbia, isolating themselves from Europe.
Dajiyuan columnist Wang He analyzed that Xi Jinping’s options for visiting Europe are limited, with Serbia and Hungary, two former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, having weak international presence. This indicates that Chinese diplomatic efforts in the EU are passive, lacking strong cards to play.
Wang noted that the Kosovo issue has left Serbia isolated. By supporting Serbia’s stance on Kosovo, China in return gains Serbian support for its position on Taiwan, constituting an exchange of interests. Wang pointed out that China has made substantial investments in Serbia.
On the other hand, France appears to have a harmonious relationship with China, but there are strategic disagreements behind the scenes. Macron always insists on involving the EU Commission President von der Leyen in discussions with China, as France, being a major power, has various diplomatic considerations and aims to navigate a third path between China and the US.
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