In recent days, the retail profit of Feitian Moutai in China has dropped to only 50 Chinese yuan per bottle, approaching the break-even point. The current pricing imbalance in the Baijiu market, with prices ranging from 800 to 1500 yuan, is most severe, signaling that the Chinese Baijiu industry is entering a period of deep adjustment.
According to a report from the “New Yellow River,” a newspaper under the Jinan Daily Newspaper Group, a Baijiu distributor in Jinan revealed, “The market is changing rapidly, with prices fluctuating almost daily.” The profit of Feitian Moutai has decreased to around 50 yuan per bottle, mainly sustained by a dozen loyal customers, making it difficult to attract new customers in the past two months. Due to the challenging business environment, the store is no longer buying back Moutai and mentioned, “Prices still need to drop for a while; now is not a good time to buy.”
The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai in the market has fallen below 2000 yuan per bottle, with the total purchase and operational costs nearing the break-even point. According to Moutai’s policy, distributors need to purchase high-end products like boutique Moutai and vintage wines in proportion to getting Feitian Moutai. Considering the compulsory bundling of other products by Moutai, the cost of goods for distributors is around 1800 yuan per bottle. Sales of other Moutai series products are even poorer, with a higher pressure of stockpiling, resulting in losses for each bottle sold.
Following the trend of Feitian Moutai, the thousand-yuan series of Moutai is even worse off. The price of the popular Moutai 1935 dropped from a peak of 1800 yuan per bottle last year to over 600 yuan currently, falling below the factory price of 798 yuan per bottle. Distributors incur a loss of nearly 200 yuan for each bottle sold.
Online, the price of Moutai is even lower. During the “6.18” promotion on e-commerce platforms, Pinduoduo listed Feitian Moutai at an estimated price of 1840 yuan per bottle, while Meituan offered it for 1499 yuan per bottle. Although JD and Taobao displayed prices of 2099 to 2200 yuan, after subsidies, some orders dropped below 1900 yuan.
Another Baijiu giant, Wuliangye, is also facing tough times. Reports indicate that the price reversal of Wuliangye’s “Wu Wu” is severe. Since February this year, the factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye rose from 969 yuan per bottle to 1019 yuan per bottle, but during the “6.18” period, platforms like Pinduoduo and JD slashed the price of “Wu Wu” to only 789 yuan per bottle with billion-yuan subsidies. Consequently, offline distributors are losing over 100 yuan for each bottle sold.
A Wuliangye distributor in Jinan expressed, “The prices have been dropping continuously these days, truly a situation of losing money with each bottle sold.”
To stabilize prices, Wuliangye headquarters suspended supplies earlier this year and reduced distributor quotas to create scarcity. However, this move only fueled market panic. Some distributors mentioned, “While the manufacturers control the inventory, they continue to pressure us to sell. Finished wine inventory surged by 40% last year, and all the pressure is being passed down to us.” Currently, the stockpiled “Wu Wu” in warehouses has become a ticking time bomb, leading some distributors to sell below cost to recover funds, resulting in a vicious cycle of price drops due to continuous control.
Similarly, Moutai resorted to halting supplies to control the price decline. A Moutai distributor in Henan province disclosed that on June 21, there was news that distributors in Henan had stopped quoting and delivering mandatory Moutai products. On June 23, the manager of a Moutai specialty store on Jingsan Road in Jinan mentioned, “We received a similar notice, but we still need to fulfill the orders.” Due to the continual decline in Moutai’s wholesale price, the pressure on terminal sales is significant. Currently, the retail price of a single bottle is 1950 yuan with a wholesale price of 2050 yuan per bottle, showing a drop of around thirty to forty yuan compared to last week. Failing to act now would lead to even greater losses.
According to the “2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Term Research Report” released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association on June 18, the pricing imbalance in the Baijiu market, with prices ranging from 800 to 1500 yuan, is most severe, signaling the Chinese Baijiu industry’s deep adjustment phase.
Liu Zhenguo, the Deputy Secretary-General of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, stated that in the first half of 2025, the Baijiu industry continued its trend of deep adjustment, with production volume decreasing by 7.2% to 1.032 million kiloliters compared to the previous year, marking a potential eighth consecutive year of production decline.
The China Alcoholic Drinks Association emphasized that the era of blind expansion in the Baijiu sector has ended, and destocking remains the mainstream strategy. Regarding the current severe internal strife in the Chinese Baijiu market, a distributor pointed out that the key issue lies in the imbalance of supply and demand. With Moutai’s production capacity reaching 57,200 tons in 2025 and slow depletion of historical inventory, there is significant market supply pressure. The demand side is impacted by the economic slowdown, causing core scenarios like business banquets and gifting to shrink, leading to weak demand for high-end Baijiu among the younger consumer groups.