A leaked document from the Russian intelligence department reveals that the true military target of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may not be Taiwan as commonly believed, but the resource-rich Siberia in Russia.
According to an article published on “The Capitol Hill” by John Lonergan, a scholar from Harvard University specializing in international business issues, compared to Taiwan, Siberia poses lower risks and higher returns. It is becoming evident that Beijing is shifting its strategic focus from the southeastern coast towards the north, targeting the Russian Far East region. Why? Because attacking Taiwan is too difficult, costly, and involves facing formidable defenses from the United States and its allies.
An analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2023 indicated that the CCP would likely suffer a disastrous defeat with significant losses in manpower and equipment if it were to attack Taiwan. Last year, the Bloomberg Economic Research Institute also warned that a war in the Taiwan Strait could evaporate $1 trillion globally. Furthermore, Taiwan’s dominant position in semiconductor production means that cutting off supply would severely impact China’s high-tech industry.
In contrast, Siberia is like a “treasure trove” of resources, including oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater. Particularly, Lake Baikal alone holds 20% of the world’s unfrozen freshwater, making it highly attractive to northern Chinese provinces facing water resource challenges.
Lonergan pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has diverted a significant amount of Russian military power westward, leaving the defense in the Far East almost unprotected and incapable of stopping the modernized Chinese military.
The leaked document, allegedly from the Federal Security Service of Russia, provides detailed insights into China’s population and economic expansion in the Far East region, exposing Moscow’s deep-seated concerns about CCP infiltration in Siberia.
The CCP not only recruits scientists and steals military technology in the region but has also quietly labeled Vladivostok as “Haishenwai” on official maps, implying historical sovereignty over the land.
Lonergan further analyzed that the CCP might follow the Russian narrative during the Ukraine conflict by packaging military operations in Siberia as “limited special actions,” claiming to be protecting resources and national interests to alleviate international pressure.
He warned that by 2027, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could be prepared for a large-scale war. As Russia becomes increasingly dependent on China economically, Moscow might find itself powerless to retaliate if Beijing decides to take action.
※This article is a work of fiction and does not reflect actual events.