A recent incident has caused tension in the Yellow Sea as a Russian IL-38 anti-submarine plane flew low over the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, closely escorted by F-35 and F/A-18 fighter jets. Is this the latest provocation by the Russian military against the United States, or is it a military maneuver amidst the current Russia-Ukraine standoff? Can the IL-38N challenge American aircraft carrier dominance?
The video footage we’ve just seen captured the Russian IL-38 anti-submarine aircraft flying over the USS Carl Vinson in the Pacific region, flanked by F-35 fighter jets and F/A-18 Super Hornets. Another clip shows the IL-38 filming U.S. F-35 fighter jets from its perspective, indicating both sides were flying at relatively low altitudes.
For the past month, the USS Carl Vinson has been conducting exercises in the East Sea and the Sea of Japan near South Korea and its allied nations. Hence, it is likely that the footage was taken in the vicinity of the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan.
The Russian IL-38 in the footage is a maritime patrol and anti-submarine aircraft originally derived from the Il-18 transport plane during the Soviet era. The IL-38 prototype first flew in 1961 and entered production in 1967, continuing until 1972. With only about 30 of the total produced fleet of over 50 Il-38s currently in service in the Russian Navy Aviation, these aircraft have a history of over 50 years. It’s estimated that these planes may face retirement in the near future.
The IL-38 has various upgraded versions, with the IL-38N featured in this incident being equipped with Russia’s new “Novella” P-38 radar system. This system can detect airborne targets within a range of 90 kilometers and track surface targets up to a radius of 320 kilometers, making it the most advanced version currently available.
On the other hand, the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group of USS Carl Vinson is equipped with nine squadrons, including an F-35 fighter squadron, three F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter squadrons, an EA-18G “Growler” electronic warfare aircraft squadron, along with E-2 “Hawkeye” early warning aircraft squadron, C-2 “Greyhound” transport aircraft squadron, and other helicopter squadrons. In a wartime scenario, the Russian IL-38 anti-submarine aircraft would have virtually no chance to approach the U.S. carrier.
The sighting of Russian anti-submarine aircraft flying alongside the U.S. aircraft carrier near the Yellow Sea has been infrequent in recent years.
The video was initially shared on Instagram, likely by personnel serving aboard the USS Carl Vinson. The uploader mentioned that Russian aircraft had been circling over the U.S. carrier for an entire week. A similar incident occurred in 2020 when a Russian IL-38 anti-submarine aircraft flew over the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier George Washington under the escort of U.S. F/A-18 jets.
As is well known, the United States has recently attempted to mediate peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine, albeit with slow progress. Despite nearly a month of negotiations, the parties have only reached agreements on a 30-day ceasefire regarding energy infrastructure and the so-called Black Sea ceasefire, both of which have not been strictly adhered to. At this juncture, Russia sending anti-submarine aircraft to track the U.S. aircraft carrier fleet undoubtedly puts pressure on the U.S. government.
With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Russian military has strengthened cooperation with China in recent years, conducting joint military exercises multiple times. For example, in September 2024, the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian navies held joint exercises in the Sea of Oman. In June 2024, China and Russia dispatched strategic bombers for joint patrol exercises near Alaska. Two Russian Tu-95s and two Chinese H-6 bombers, escorted by Russian Su-30 fighter jets, flew over the Bering Sea towards Alaska, prompting urgent fighter interceptions by the U.S.
During the Trump administration, attempts were made to isolate the Beijing government in military and diplomatic terms, while seeking broader cooperation with Russia. However, it seems that this goal is still a considerable distance away. The past three years of the Russia-Ukraine war have subjected Russia to extensive international economic sanctions, making it more economically reliant on China. China not only exports a large number of electromechanical products and vehicles to Russia but also military products like chips and drones.
Nevertheless, the China-Russia relationship has never been rock solid; in fact, Russians generally look down upon China for various reasons. Firstly, Russia belongs to Western Christian civilization and emotionally and spiritually leans towards Europe, not China. An interview with Russians conducted by a Chinese blogger showed that most Russians expressed a desire to visit European countries like France, Sweden, and the UK, hardly mentioning China. This has led to many Chinese internet users feeling emotionally hurt.
Secondly, historically, Russia was the “big brother,” while China played a subordinate role. However, in the past 20 years, China’s economic and military might has significantly grown, altering the strategic dynamics between the two nations. Russians are not pleased with China’s progress. Russian experts even expressed disdain when China developed the J-20 fighter aircraft. In October 2008, Russia published a lengthy commentary titled “Barely Reaching the Fifth Generation – China continuously copies Russia’s best technological designs to create fifth-generation fighters.” The experts claimed that China simply copied the best Russian technology designs to create so-called fifth-generation fighters. Russian expert Dushenov once said, “J-20 has a substantial replicate or completely duplicate of Russia’s MiG 1.44 experimental aircraft technology and the U.S. fifth-generation fighters F-22 and F-35 technology. However, the Chinese have made progress. Previously, they only completely copied Russian arms and equipment, but now they can successfully patch together technology from multiple countries.”
In tank competitions held in Russia, China had entered Type 96 and Type 99 tanks multiple times. While Russians may not openly express it, in private, they look down on Chinese equipment and have even cheated during competitions. This has likely irked many Chinese military enthusiasts.
Thirdly, historically, China and Russia have not been traditional allies. After Khrushchev came to power, he had a fallout with Mao Zedong, leading to the Soviet Union turning towards revisionism. In the Zhenbao Island Conflict of the 1960s, the Sino-Soviet relations deteriorated significantly, with the Soviet Union even pointing nuclear warheads at China. In the 1980s, China supported Vietnam against the Soviet Union, escalating tensions between the two sides.
Currently, China and Russia are cooperating militarily and economically mostly as a result of being “huddling together for warmth” under international isolation. With no shared values, genuine common interests, or mutual respect, their cooperation is temporary and strategic.
China and Russia have several historical issues, and the efforts by the U.S. government to separate Chinese and Russian cooperation strategically seem reasonable.
However, with the unresolved Russia-Ukraine war, China and Russia will likely continue to closely collaborate. There is still a long way to go for the U.S. in fully disrupting the diplomatic ties between China and Russia. What are your thoughts, dear viewers?
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