Recently, Russian Defense Minister Belousov visited Beijing, meeting with Zhang Youxia, the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. However, Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping did not appear. Analysts believe this signifies Xi Jinping’s gradual withdrawal from military affairs, with Zhang Youxia and his faction currently controlling the real power within the military.
On October 15th, Zhang Youxia met with Russian Defense Minister Belousov in Beijing. According to official Chinese media reports, Zhang expressed the desire for both sides to maintain high-level exchanges and deepen military relations.
Belousov stated that the two sides had a “substantial” meeting, committing to strengthen defense cooperation and military relations between China and Russia.
This visit marked Belousov’s return to Beijing after a five-month interval. In May of this year, during Russian President Putin’s visit to China, Belousov also accompanied the delegation. At that time, Putin and Xi Jinping jointly announced the deepening of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era.” Just before Putin’s visit to China, he nominated Belousov, previously the First Deputy Prime Minister, to be the Russian Defense Minister, while former Defense Minister Shoigu was appointed Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council.
It’s worth noting that Xi Jinping did not meet with Belousov on this occasion. From October 15th to 16th, Xi Jinping was inspecting Fujian. Back in October 2018, when then-Russian Defense Minister Shoigu visited China, Xi Jinping did meet with him.
During Belousov’s visit, the Chinese Communist Party also held a military theory work conference. Xi Jinping only issued so-called important instructions but did not personally attend the conference. Instead, it was Zhang Youxia who attended and delivered a speech. Just days before the military theory work conference, Xi Jinping was still seen meeting with foreign guests publicly.
These circumstances have led to speculation about Xi Jinping’s current role in military affairs. Political analyst Chen Pokong, based in the U.S., recently stated in a self-media program that Belousov’s promotion from First Deputy Prime Minister to Defense Minister of Russia was a step up in rank from his predecessor Shoigu. However, Xi Jinping’s lack of meeting with him indicates Xi Jinping is gradually receding from military affairs. Chen Pokong believes that the current real power in the Chinese Communist Party military no longer lies in Xi Jinping’s hands but is controlled by Zhang Youxia and his faction.
Former Chinese Navy Colonel Staff Officer Yao Cheng, in an interview with Dajiyuan reporter, stated that Xi Jinping is no longer allowed to voice opinions within the Central Military Commission, which has become a fact. He stated that Xi Jinping is now essentially sidelined from military affairs within the Central Military Commission.
On December 29, 2023, the Chinese Communist Party officially announced the removal of the credentials of nine senior military representatives, including three generals and at least four senior colonels, mostly from the Rocket Force and the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department.
Among these nine individuals, at least three have connections to Zhang Youxia, including former Deputy Minister of the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department Zhang Yulin (senior colonel), Rau Wenmin (rank unspecified), who previously served in the Central Military Commission Equipment Development Department, and Lu Hong (junior colonel), the former Minister of Equipment in the Rocket Force.
Lu Hong was a direct subordinate of the former disgraced Chinese Defense Minister and then Minister of the Military Commission’s Equipment Development Department, Li Shangfu. Zhang Youxia was Li Shangfu’s former superior.
At that time, Chen Pokong mentioned in an interview with Dajiyuan that at least three of the dismissed military representatives were related to Zhang Youxia, indicating high tension in Xi Jinping’s relationship with him. Chen Pokong further explained that Xi Jinping, through his trusted ally He Weidong, had taken over the daily work of the Central Military Commission, thereby marginalizing Zhang Youxia. Additionally, in the process of appointing a new Defense Minister, Xi Jinping deliberately delayed the nomination for several months to avoid appointing the highly acclaimed Liu Zhenli.
On December 29, 2023, the Chinese Communist Party announced the appointment of former Navy Commander Dong Jun as the new Defense Minister, replacing former Defense Minister Li Shangfu.
Liu Zhenli is the current member of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff of the Military Commission. He is the youngest active general in the Chinese military with combat experience. In 1986 to 1987, Liu Zhenli participated in the Sino-Vietnamese War. It was during the Battle of Laoshan in 1986 that the then 22-year-old Liu Zhenli fought with his troops. Zhang Youxia also participated in the Sino-Vietnamese War. Liu and Zhang developed a camaraderie and senior-junior relationship during the war.
Liu Zhenli, coming from the army with combat experience, ranks as the Chief of Staff in the order of succession after the Defense Minister. Chen Pokong believes that following Li Shangfu’s incident, Liu Zhenli was the rightful candidate for the Defense Minister position in line with the order. However, Xi Jinping unexpectedly promoted Dong Jun, who is neither a member of the Central Committee nor the Central Military Commission, and even a naval officer located far from Beijing as the Defense Minister. This move was clearly to outcast Liu Zhenli and focus on targeting Zhang Youxia.
Zhang Youxia, born in July 1950, has a deep-rooted relationship with Xi Jinping. His father, Zhang Zongxun, was a senior military leader in the Chinese Communist Party. Zhang Zongxun and Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun, belonged to the same faction in the party during the war era and were close friends. Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping share a strong personal relationship.
In October 2012, Zhang Youxia became the Minister of the Armament Department. The following month, he became a member of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party.
During the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2017, Xi Jinping was re-elected, while Zhang Youxia and Xu Qiliang were appointed as Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission and members of the Central Political Bureau, becoming part of the Chinese Communist Party’s “national leadership.”
In October 2022, at the age of 72, Zhang Youxia retained his positions as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, while Xu Qiliang of the same age stepped down. He was succeeded by the commander of the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Communist Party, He Weidong.
Internal power struggles in the Chinese Communist Party have always revolved around military support, and Xi Jinping’s governance has heavily relied on the support of Zhang Youxia.
Several years ago, Xi Jinping, with Zhang Youxia’s assistance, carried out a large-scale purge of the Central Guard Bureau. It was rumored that Xi Jinping received intelligence suggesting that some old military officials who had fallen from grace, or were about to, were unwilling to surrender and attempted to instigate parts of the Central Guard Bureau’s officials to stage a coup, targeting Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan. During this period, it was Zhang Youxia who personally led the restructuring of the Central Guard Bureau, suspending some suspect colonel-level officers who were then investigated by the military disciplinary committee.
Xi Jinping has been dismissing selected military commission members personally chosen by him, citing corruption charges publicly but the real reason being that these individuals may pose a covert threat of rebellion.
Information obtained from a reliable source revealed that there is widespread distrust and infighting within the Chinese Communist Party, with many plotting to overthrow Xi Jinping including those recently promoted by him. Those detained have demonstrated disloyalty towards Xi Jinping and engaged in clandestine actions against him. Xi Jinping believes in ancient prophecies and fears becoming the “appointed victim” in the Chinese ancient prophecy book “Tui Bei Tu,” destined to die in office. Consequently, Xi Jinping has conducted purges within the Rocket Force and among senior military officials.
The 46th image of the “Tui Bei Tu” reads, “A military man carries a bow, claiming to be an old man with white hair. A golden sword is hidden in the eastern gate, and a brave warrior enters the emperor’s palace through the back door.” The Chinese character for “Xi” consists of the characters “羽” and “白,” elements that appear in the prophecy. The phrase “an old man with white hair” includes the elements “羽” and “白.” The depiction of a warrior entering the emperor’s palace with a hidden sword through the back gate symbolizes an assassin attempting to kill the emperor. The mention of a military man carrying a bow signifies a potential threat to Xi Jinping. Coincidentally, the Chinese character for “Zhang,” Zhang Youxia’s surname, consists of the character for “bow,” thus violating Xi Jinping’s taboos.