The United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to embark on a 4-day visit to Beijing starting on April 23rd (Tuesday). One of the crucial tasks of this visit is to directly pressure the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and express concerns about CCP’s assistance to Russia in building its military capabilities. Washington will warn Beijing that if it continues to provide weapons and related technologies to Russia, punitive measures will be taken.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its third year, with the conflict still at a stalemate. Contrary to international expectations of a swift Russian defeat, Russia has gradually gained the upper hand in the war and restored its military production capabilities. The key factor behind this resurgence is the significant support provided by the CCP to Russia. This is one of the reasons for the United States to counter the CCP and sanction Chinese businesses involved.
On April 19th, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, following the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Italy, stated that amid Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine, China (CCP) is the main supporter of Russia’s military industry, providing components and related elements for weapons and equipment.
He mentioned that China provides machine tools, semiconductors, and other dual-use products to Russia. These products have helped Russia rebuild its defense industry which was weakened due to sanctions and export controls.
Blinken emphasized that if China (CCP) claims to want good relations with Europe and other countries, it should not exacerbate the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.
At the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, he urged European foreign ministers to increase pressure on Beijing. The G7 foreign ministers’ statement expressed strong concerns about Chinese (CCP) companies providing dual-use materials and weapon components to Russia for its military production.
Recently returned from Beijing, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that any company providing material support to Russia in the Ukrainian war will face “serious consequences”. Banks facilitating significant deals with Russia also face the risk of US sanctions.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell had also warned on April 9 that CCP’s support to Russia in the Ukrainian war threatens the stability of US-China relations. The US has directly informed China that if this situation continues, the US “will not stand idly by”.
The US Congress is considering imposing new sanctions on CCP companies aiding Russia in the conflict. If implemented, this would be the first time sanctions are directly targeted at the CCP.
US House Foreign Affairs Committee member Gerald Connolly had previously stated that China (CCP) must understand: measures taken to sanction Russia apply equally to China (CCP), and the losses suffered by China (CCP) could far exceed those of Russia.
Blinken’s upcoming visit to China on the 23rd is said to include issuing a clear warning to Beijing officials that if the CCP continues to provide weapons to Russia, Chinese financial institutions are likely to face sanctions.
Regarding the US accusation of CCP aiding Russia in reviving its military production capabilities, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the US denied the allegations, stating that China has not provided weapons to any conflicting party, and normal trade between China (CCP) and Russia should not be interfered with or restricted.
President Biden recently spoke with CCP leader Xi Jinping over the phone in early April, and Treasury Secretary Yellen just concluded her visit to Beijing. Blinken’s subsequent visit to Beijing is seen as part of the US’s accelerated pressure campaign against the CCP.
The Russia-Ukraine war is essentially a war of attrition. Therefore, the US and its allies have been supporting Ukraine to continue to deplete Moscow’s will, collapse Russia’s economy through sanctions, and exhaust Russia’s military hardware, weapons, ammunition, and personnel through a prolonged conflict, rendering Russia unable to continue the fight.
However, due to multifaceted assistance from the CCP and trade and investment, Russia has obtained significant funds, allowing it to restore its military production capabilities to pre-war levels.
As early as July last year, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence had released a declassified report stating that CCP’s support is “crucial” to Russia’s maintenance of operations in Ukraine; naming CCP, the Chinese government, and state-owned enterprises as participants, revealing how CCP has been providing economic and military support to Russia.
According to the report, following Western sanctions on Russia, Sino-Russian trade rapidly expanded, compensating for most of Russia’s lost trade. China’s imports of energy from Russia increased significantly. In 2022, bilateral trade between China and Russia hit a new high, with Russia increasing imports from China by 14% and exports to China surging by 43%. Russia’s major exports to China were oil and natural gas.
Customs data showed that CCP state-owned arms companies provided navigation systems, interference technology, and some aircraft components to Russian military companies.
According to the General Administration of Chinese Customs data on December 7, 2023, in the first 11 months, China-Russia trade amounted to $218.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. Russia’s imports from China surged by 50.2%. At that time, China-Russia trade accounted for 34% of Russia’s total foreign trade. In 2023 overall, bilateral trade reached a historic high of $240 billion.
During this period, Russia used the yuan for settlements. By August 2022, the use of the yuan for offshore payments by Russia had increased tenfold.
Affected by Western sanctions, some Russian banks exited the international SWIFT system, leading to a significant increase in Russia’s international trade enterprises’ reliance on China and the yuan.
Although Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko acknowledged concerns from some Chinese banks about being sanctioned and unwilling to engage in financial activities with Russia, he denied that payments between the two countries had stopped.
On March 1, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in the UK warned that CCP and Russia’s cooperation in civilian 5G wireless communication and satellite technology could have significant intelligence and military outcomes.
Communication equipment and drones are vital in Russia’s attack on Ukraine, requiring stable communication signals and sufficient geospatial information support.
Huawei of China has been cooperating with three major telecom companies in Russia (Beeline, MTS, Megafo) on 5G agreements since 2014. Over the past decade, the breakthrough in civilian technologies offered by Huawei’s 5G could also be integrated into military applications, directly impacting the Ukraine war.
In modern warfare, satellites provide crucial services in various aspects such as weather, environment, surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation, positioning, communication, assessment, early warning, and missile defense, playing a significant and decisive role.
Since 2014, China and Russia have been working to enhance the compatibility and complementarity of their two major global satellite navigation systems, Beidou and GLONASS (developed by the former Soviet Union, continued by Russia). In September 2022, an agreement was signed for GLONASS ground stations in various Chinese cities and Beidou stations in Russian cities.
In addition, CCP has provided geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) to Russia. US officials had previously warned allies that CCP has increased its support to Russia, including providing geospatial intelligence for military purposes. GEOINT integration includes data from satellites, mobile sensors, ground control stations, and aerial imagery. This data helps create real-time maps and simulations to identify military threats and conduct military operations.
International trade data shows a significant increase in Chinese-made products with important military uses entering Russia during the two-plus years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. An Atlantic Council report indicated that these Chinese products played a critical role in strengthening Russia’s defense and counterattacks on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Excavators and other machinery equipment accounted for a significant portion. In August and September 2022, as Russia had to fortify its positions against Ukraine’s strong counterattacks, they needed to dig trenches, tank traps, and build defensive fortresses, requiring a large number of excavators and bulldozers.
In September 2022, China’s exports of excavators to Russia more than doubled compared to 2021. For the first seven months of 2023, China’s exports of excavators to Russia tripled, and exports of bulldozers doubled compared to the previous year.
Moreover, heavy trucks and tractors were also significant items. Atlantic Council report data showed that for the first ten months of 2023, China’s total exports of heavy trucks to Russia increased by 345% compared to the pre-war period in 2012. Additionally, the numbers of tractors exported increased from zero in 2012 to nearly 50,000 by September 2023.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, both sides have extensively used drones, playing a crucial role in the conflict. Therefore, the war is often referred to as the first “drone war” in human history. As the world’s largest manufacturer of drones, China indirectly influences the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through drone export controls.
It is reported that in the first seven months of 2023, Russia obtained drones worth over $100 million from China, which is 30 times the quantity obtained by Ukraine during the same period. Even after China’s drone manufacturer DJI announced a halt in business with Russia for over a year, its products continued to be sold to entities related to Russian military industry. Additionally, drones have flowed into Russia through other countries like Central Asia.
Ball bearings are crucial components of military tanks. From January to October 2023, China’s exports of ball bearings to Russia increased by 345% compared to the previous year. Similarly, China’s exports of such items to Kyrgyzstan increased by an astonishing 2492%.
In the latter half of 2022, Chinese companies shipped 1,000 rifles to Russia through Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, along with other military supplies like drone components and bulletproof vests.
Russia imported large quantities of nitrocellulose (a highly flammable compound essential for explosives production) from China, almost tripling its artillery and ammunition production capacity compared to the US and Europe.
Furthermore, Chinese companies provided mortar drones to Russia capable of carrying 120mm shells, with Russia purchasing drone engines through the AliExpress platform operated by Alibaba for military use.
Chips and integrated circuits are dual-use products essential for many weapons, such as missiles, tanks, and fighter jets, but are subject to export restrictions by the US. However, China has been providing a large number of chips and integrated circuits to Russia. In 2023 alone, about 90% of Russia’s microelectronic products came from China.
Some companies based in Hong Kong have been purchasing semiconductors in the market and reselling them to Russia. Many Chinese companies, such as Wuhan Gaocen Technology Co., Ltd., Wuhan Tongsheng Technology Co., Ltd., and Hikvision, have been exporting optical components used in tanks and armored vehicles to Russia. Other companies like Yirei Technology and North China Optoelectronics Research Institute have been supplying military-grade optical components to Russia.
Increasingly more Chinese-made electronic components have been found in captured Russian weapons, such as drone navigation systems and tank fire control systems.
Just as China’s exports of ballistic bearings to Kyrgyzstan skyrocketed, its exports of integrated circuits to Turkey increased from less than $73 million in 2021 to nearly $125 million in 2022. During this period, Turkey’s exports of integrated circuits to Russia also grew by over 50%. These examples demonstrate how China provides support to Russia through third-party countries.