According to the latest report released in August by the non-profit think tank “Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget” (CRFB) based in Washington, D.C., the U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to significantly worsen over the next decade. The publicly held national debt is projected to soar from the current $30 trillion to $53 trillion by 2035, accounting for 120% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
CRFB’s latest budget analysis takes into account this year’s passage of the “Big and Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) and the new tariff framework introduced by the Trump administration. However, this forecast only considers the direct impacts of the policies themselves and does not factor in the indirect effects of economic changes.
Comprised of prominent economists, fiscal experts, and former policymakers from both parties, CRFB wields significant influence in the field of U.S. fiscal policy, particularly in budget transparency and long-term fiscal planning.
The latest report indicates that the annual federal budget deficit is expected to increase from $1.7 trillion (5.6% of GDP) in 2025 to $2.6 trillion (5.9% of GDP) in 2035, with a total deficit of $22.7 trillion over the next decade.
This level is far above the 3% deficit target proposed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others.
The rising interest costs of the national debt are a significant factor driving deficit growth, with net interest payments projected to increase from $1 trillion (3.2% of GDP) in 2025 to $1.8 trillion (4.1% of GDP) in 2035.
Federal spending over the next decade is expected to total $88 trillion, accounting for 23.6% of GDP, significantly higher than the historical average of 21.1% over the past 50 years. Tax revenues are projected to be $65 trillion, representing 17.5% of GDP, slightly higher than the 50-year average of 17.3%.
The rapid increase in U.S. national debt poses potential risks to the economy, as higher interest costs may squeeze other key expenditures such as healthcare, social security, and infrastructure investments. CRFB warns that without action, the debt burden could further intensify, impacting the U.S. credit rating and economic stability.
CRFB estimates that reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2035 would require cutting $7.5 trillion over a decade, while maintaining the national debt at 100% of GDP would necessitate a reduction of $9 trillion.
More aggressive targets, such as achieving a balanced budget by 2035 or lowering the national debt to 80% of GDP, would require cuts of over $15 trillion and $17 trillion, respectively.
For more moderate goals, such as keeping the national debt at 110% of GDP or reducing the deficit to 4% of GDP, cuts of $4.5 trillion and $5 trillion would be needed, respectively.
Achieving these objectives will require action from the U.S. government in both revenue and spending aspects.
CRFB recommends adopting the “Super PAYGO” principle to ensure that future spending and tax cuts are fully offset, implementing trust fund solutions, and pursuing other revenue and expenditure reforms to put the national debt on a sustainable downward path.
While economic growth cannot entirely replace deficit reduction, faster economic growth can alleviate fiscal pressures.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently estimated that President Trump’s tariffs would reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years. This data suggests that tariff revenues can offset the fiscal pressures brought by the OBBBA.