Before the inauguration speech of Taiwan’s future president, Lai Ching-te, two American think tanks recently released reports indicating that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is more likely to take action to seize Taiwan without deploying troops. The United States and its allies must prepare for a potential CCP invasion of Taiwan and also ready themselves against CCP’s coercion strategies. Experts believe that CCP’s deception tactics are not only aimed at Taiwan but also at the democratic world.
The 115-page report titled “From Coercion to Capitulation: How China Can Take Taiwan Without a War” was published by the American Enterprise Institute, authored by scholars such as Dan Blumenthal and Frederick W. Kagan.
Another 60-page report released by Booz Allen Hamilton titled “How to Succeed at Annexation Without Really Fighting: The PRC’s Taiwan Cyber Strategy Explained” was also discussed.
These analysis reports mainly elaborate on several aspects. Firstly, CCP’s military power is currently insufficient to capture Taiwan. The CIA’s 2023 assessment stated that CCP’s growing military strength has not instilled confidence in Beijing’s ability to successfully invade or blockade Taiwan. Logistics and Taiwan’s defense remain major obstacles to military takeover.
The CCP also apprehends that an attack on Taiwan could escalate into an international war, further weakening the party’s legitimacy. “Ultimately, failing to win a war with Taiwan could have a disastrous impact on CCP and its internal legitimacy narrative.”
General Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, previously mentioned intelligence assessments at the Pentagon. He noted, “I truly believe that Xi Jinping doesn’t actually want to take Taiwan by force. He will try to achieve it through other means.”
The report suggests that using “peaceful reunification” will not trigger a large-scale regional war or jeopardize Beijing’s global strategic goals. “Peaceful reunification” can also involve the widespread use of coercive means to force Taiwan to accept Beijing’s demands. CCP’s coercion actions can be translated into political gains by gaining political control over Taiwan.
However, the report also warns that there is too little focus on CCP’s coercive capabilities, with attention mainly on CCP’s military capabilities for invading Taiwan, leading to a relaxed vigilance due to Beijing’s lack of military power.
Regarding how CCP plans to achieve “peaceful reunification,” the report states that CCP aims to undermine Taiwan in four key areas: undermining the operational capability of the Republic of China government, undermining the psychology of local residents with resistance consciousness in Taiwan, undermining US-Taiwan strategic relations, and undermining the willingness of the US public to support Taiwan.
The report also mentions that CCP’s goal is to make life increasingly unbearable for the people of Taiwan by steadily increasing pressure and intensifying coercive actions until the core of Taiwan’s political arena sees accepting CCP’s proposed “peace process” as more favorable than continuing to resist.
In response, Lai Jung-wei, Executive Director of the Taiwan Inspirational Association, stated to Epoch Times on the 18th that the so-called new strategy of peaceful reunification is no longer solely based on coercive threats or economic inducements.
“In recent years, the CCP’s approach to Taiwan and the world has been through what is known as cognitive warfare, combining aspects of information warfare, legal warfare, and psychological warfare.”
“One common feature is the creation of fake news. It is confirming a fact that attacking Taiwan is not as effective as buying Taiwan, and buying Taiwan is not as effective as deceiving Taiwan.”
Lai Jung-wei stated, “In the past, it used a combination of threats and enticement by wielding both the stick and the carrot, now with the addition of deceitful means. Because nowadays, producing fake news is very simple, using out-of-context information, misrepresenting facts, utilizing graphics software, and even AI to deceive the Taiwanese people.”
“It aims to completely unify Taiwan without deploying a single soldier or incurring minimal costs.”
Lai Jung-wei analyzed that one approach is to create internal divisions and conflicts within Taiwan. Despite Taiwan’s confidence in democratic institutions and government governance, the CCP uses fabricated news to accuse some individuals within the government of corruption and illegal activities, ultimately creating discord and attacking the government, hindering the government’s ability to carry out its policies effectively.
Recently, there was a serious physical confrontation among lawmakers in the Taiwan Legislative Yuan, resulting in six legislators seeking medical treatment due to discomfort, seemingly confirming CCP’s intent to sow discord in Taiwan.
Lai Jung-wei stated, “The CCP will also use overseas communications as a source and utilize local agents who have benefited from China for many years, even those whose minds have been manipulated to be loyal to the CCP’s ideology, to manipulate the entire deception process in Taiwan.”
“However, in this so-called deception process towards Taiwan, I must point out that it is also very afraid of being exposed because fake news can backfire. If exposed as false, the impact is greatly reduced, and the backlash could be unexpectedly strong.”
This cognitive warfare tactic by the CCP is not only targeted at Taiwan but is also being employed globally, raising alarms. Recently, countries like Germany, the UK, and Australia have intensified efforts to catch CCP spies. CCP’s interference in other countries’ politics has also been frequently exposed.
An official investigation in Canada in early May found evidence of foreign interference in Canada’s past two federal elections. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had previously asserted that Beijing attempted to interfere in the elections but was unsuccessful.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service’s annual report indicated that the CCP uses deception to influence decision-making in various levels of government, academia, and media, activities that aim to promote China’s national interests and potentially destabilize Canada’s democratic process and institutions.
Lai Jung-wei said that the CCP leverages the freedom of speech in democratic countries to spread fake news, create chaos, support, directly or covertly aid friendly candidates, and sow discord.
Recent protests on American campuses bear signs of CCP’s shadow, a testament to how the CCP exploits American campus democracy and innocent students by disseminating fake news, portraying victims or using manipulated images to invoke sympathy and criticism, through fake news creating chaotic effects.
The report from the American think tank also mentions that the alliance of the United States, Taiwan, and global democratic countries should formulate appropriate countermeasures to prevent and defeat CCP’s coercion actions against Taiwan through immediate action and close coordination.
The report concluded that the United States and its allies must prepare for the possibility of a CCP invasion of Taiwan but also be ready for CCP’s alternative hybrid warfare and coercion strategies.
Lai Jung-wei stated that currently the United States, Europe, and neighboring countries around Taiwan are very concerned. “I have met many scholars in Japan, and they always feel that Taiwan lacks a clear understanding of its own situation, lacks a correct mindset, lacks a defense concept, even faces the concept of surrender without fighting in times of crisis and war.”
“This will certainly affect Taiwan’s allies around the world, including the United States, France, Germany, Europe, Japan or Australia, New Zealand—worried about Taiwan. People inside Taiwan assisting the CCP with intelligence or aiding in the ‘unification cause’.”
However, Lai Jung-wei mentioned that Taiwan’s future President Lai Ching-te considered this during personnel appointments, allowing the national security and diplomatic units to rotate, exchange, or cooperate.
“Many retired soldiers within the Ministry of National Defense have gone to the CCP to appease, so internal military units must be vigilant against counterintelligence and intelligence, even more so for national security and foreign affairs departments.”
“Only then can Taiwan cooperate with the United States, European countries, even Southeast Asian countries, and gain their trust. Taiwan must stand on its own feet first, and only then will others come to assist you.”
Everyone knows that, “If the CCP controls Taiwan or manages the waters near Taiwan with CCP warships, the shipping, air transportation, and chip supply between the whole Asia-Pacific region will face a severe disaster.”
Lai Jung-wei emphasized that Taiwan, European countries, and Southeast Asia must have strategic communication and be prepared. Taiwan has a long history of anti-communism. “Taiwan can fight against communist expansion or against the evil dictatorship of the CCP, leveraging our expertise and contributing our experience and advantages.”