In recent years, as Mexico prepares to evaluate its multilateral trade agreements with the United States and Canada, the issue of China has become an unavoidable topic of discussion.
The three North American countries renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2018, renaming it the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and setting the evaluation time for 2026. Mexico has explicitly stated its desire for the China trade issue to occupy a prominent position in these negotiations.
Mexico’s newly-elected President Claudia Sheinbaum, through her Deputy Minister of Trade Luis Rosendo Gutierrez, has made it clear that Mexico’s top priority is to address its excessive reliance on imports from China and to adapt to the practical needs of supporting its domestic supply chains. This language sounds strikingly similar to the rhetoric used in Washington to describe American demands. In fact, Mexico has indicated its readiness to collaborate with the United States and Canada to restrict Chinese products’ trade access in North America.
According to President Sheinbaum, Mexico’s China trade issues manifest in two aspects. Firstly, the quantity and complexity of imported goods from China have been steadily increasing, leading to Mexico’s growing dependence on China. Secondly, China appears to be using Mexico as a channel for its products to enter the United States, mainly to circumvent tariffs imposed by both the Trump and Biden administrations on imports from China.
While Deputy Minister Gutierrez denies that Mexico is a “springboard from Asia to the United States” for Chinese products, Mexico has indeed embraced a significant number of Chinese enterprises. Although Mexican product sales in the United States exceeded those of Chinese products last year, many Mexican goods still contain inputs from China and are sourced from numerous factories owned or operated directly by China in Mexico. The Mexican government has explicitly stated its strong desire to replace these Chinese factories with business from American companies, and so far, it has been working diligently to achieve this transition.
Regardless of whether Mexico is serving as a conduit for Chinese products, it is undeniable that there is a significant trade imbalance between Mexico and China. Since 2015, Mexico’s imports from China have increased to around $45 billion, while its exports to China have only increased by $5 billion. Mexico’s trade deficit with China has nearly doubled, expanding from around $65 billion in 2015 to over $110 billion at the beginning of this year. One-fifth of all imported goods in Mexico are Chinese products, with approximately 70% of these goods being supplied to just 50 companies operating in Mexico, almost half of which are headquartered in China.
So far, Mexico has had minimal official interaction with the United States or Canada as partners in the USMCA regarding the China product issue. However, the Mexican government has informally engaged with American businesses, especially automobile manufacturers, semiconductor manufacturers, aerospace companies, and electronics companies, to seek alternatives for Chinese businesses in Mexico and the many goods currently imported from Asia (particularly Malaysia, Vietnam, and China).
Undoubtedly, President Sheinbaum and Deputy Minister Gutierrez hope that through this approach, Mexico can attract American companies that are actively seeking trade diversification and distancing themselves from China. This outcome would not only solidify Mexico’s position in the US-Mexico Border Management Agreement but also reduce Mexico’s current excessive dependence on Chinese products.
As the 2026 USMCA evaluation date approaches, Mexico will undoubtedly make more formal gestures towards the United States and Canada. Considering the cautious stance that the United States and Canada have shown towards China’s trade with high tariffs and other restrictive policies, it is clear that Mexico will find willing partners in line with its own goals. Regardless of the specific outcome, the influence of China is likely to continue to decline, appearing to be an inevitable trend.
The author, Milton Ezrati, is a columnist for The Epoch Times, and the article titled “Mexico Joins the Anti-China Trade Push” was previously published in the English edition of The Epoch Times.