Just 1 day left until the highly anticipated US presidential election that has captured global attention. The polling results between the Republican candidate and former President Trump, and the Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris are extremely close, within the margin of error. A slight shift of two to three percentage points could determine the outcome.
The BBC journalist, Ben Bevington, outlined five major reasons for each candidate’s potential victory. The economy remains the top concern for voters, despite low unemployment rates and a thriving stock market. Many Americans struggle daily with rising prices.
Since the pandemic, the US has experienced inflation levels not seen since the 1970s, allowing Trump the opportunity to ask voters, “Is your life better now than four years ago?” In 2024, voters worldwide have ousted ruling parties for high post-pandemic living costs, with American voters also yearning for change.
Only a quarter of Americans are satisfied with the current direction of the country, with two-thirds believing the economic outlook is unfavorable. Harris has tried to position herself as a candidate for change, but as the incumbent Vice President, distancing herself from the unpopular Biden administration proves challenging.
Despite the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots and numerous legal challenges and unprecedented criminal convictions, Trump’s support has remained stable, consistently above 40% throughout the year.
While Democrats and anti-Trump conservatives argue he is unfit for office, many Republicans see Trump as a victim of political “witch-hunt” persecution. In such a tight race, winning over undecided voters with no bias could be the key to victory.
Apart from the economy, election results are often influenced by emotional issues. Democrats focus on abortion, while Trump highlights immigration. Border crossings reached record levels during Biden’s term, affecting states far from the borders. Surveys show voters trust Trump more on immigration, especially among Latinx voters.
Trump appeals to disenfranchised voters, transforming traditional Democratic supporters like union workers into Republican voters, making tariff protection for American industries nearly routine.
If Trump can increase voter turnout in rural and swing-state suburban areas, it could offset his loss of votes among moderate, college-educated Republicans.
Critics accuse Trump of damaging US alliances by cultivating relationships with authoritarian leaders. However, he views his unpredictability as an advantage, stressing that there were no major wars during his presidency.
Many Americans are dissatisfied with the billions of dollars offered to Ukraine and Israel, believing that the US has weakened under Biden’s leadership. Most voters, especially those reached through podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, see Trump as a more decisive leader than Harris.
Despite his advantages, Trump remains a polarizing figure, winning record support for the GOP in 2020 but losing by over 7 million votes to Biden. Harris paints a grim picture of a Trump return, calling him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, aiming to eliminate “drama and conflict.”
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July showed that four out of five Americans feel the country is out of control. Harris hopes to appeal to voters, especially moderate Republicans and independents, as a stable figure.
With Biden not seeking re-election, the Democratic Party faces an uphill battle against Trump, prompting the swift launch of Harris’s campaign. While Republicans tie her to Biden’s unpopular policies, Harris’s message resonates with voters seeking a more progressive vision.
While some concerns remain about her ties to Biden, such as age, with voters worried about his suitability to be president, Trump being the older candidate this time around, age shifts focus.
The overturning of the 1973 Roe v. Wade case protecting federal abortion rights has made this election historic and crucial in the abortion debate.
The majority of abortion rights supporters favor Harris, with this issue having a history of mobilizing voters and impacting election results, including the 2022 midterms.
In this election, about 10 states, including swing states like Arizona, will vote on abortion rights in state referendums, potentially boosting support for Harris. Her potential as the first female US president and her lead among female voters may strengthen her position.
Groups strongly supporting Harris, such as those with higher education and older demographics, are more likely to vote. Democrats perform better in high-turnout groups, while Trump makes progress in low-turnout groups like young males and non-college-educated voters.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Trump led significantly among registered voters who didn’t vote in 2020, emphasizing the importance of turnout this time.
US elections are notoriously expensive, with 2024 poised to be the costliest ever. In terms of fundraising, Harris has a strong lead. Since becoming a candidate in July, she has raised more funds than Trump in the entire period since January 2023. Her campaign team’s advertising spending is nearly double that of Trump’s.
These financial advantages may play a role in the competitive race, with swing-state voters currently bombarded by political ads likely to determine the final outcome.