In recent days, political analysts believe that the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Zhang Youxia, appeared in public wearing a suit, sending a signal that his military authority may have been stripped by CCP leader Xi Jinping. Additionally, it is anticipated that significant personnel changes may occur in the upcoming CCP Third Plenary Session scheduled to be held in July.
On the afternoon of June 7th, CCP leader Xi Jinping met with visiting Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. According to official CCP media reports, CCP Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia also attended the meeting. Zhang Youxia’s presence has drawn widespread attention from the public.
Traditionally, during meetings between Chinese and Pakistani leaders in Beijing, accompanying Xi Jinping are usually high-ranking CCP officials in foreign affairs and officials in charge of the economy under the State Council. For example, in October 2023, when Xi Jinping met with Pakistani Prime Minister Kakar at the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, the officials accompanying Xi Jinping included CCP Politburo Standing Committee Member Cai Qi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
In February 2022, when Xi Jinping met with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in Beijing for the Winter Olympics opening ceremony, the attendees included CCP Politburo Standing Committee member Ding Xuexiang, then Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Central Committee Yang Jiechi, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and then Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, He Lifeng.
Video footage broadcasted by CCP’s mouthpiece CCTV showed that during his recent appearance, Zhang Youxia, unusually, did not wear military attire but instead a suit while sitting next to Xi Jinping. Previously, Zhang Youxia had always worn military uniforms when attending various CCP activities. This detail has sparked widespread speculation.
Some Hong Kong media analysts believe that Zhang Youxia wearing a suit is out of courtesy for the occasion and as a sign of respect. The reason for his casual attire during the meeting was noted to be related to the fact that a senior member from the Pakistani delegation, Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir, was also dressed informally.
Analysts speculate that both Chinese and Pakistani leaders wearing suits indicate a mutual understanding between the two parties.
However, overseas political analyst Chen Pokong holds a different view. He believes that Zhang Youxia’s attire is not a simple courtesy but rather a response to specific requests made by the Chinese side to the Pakistani delegation.
On June 14th, in an interview with reporters from The Epoch Times, Chen Pokong stated that firstly, it raises questions about the necessity of Zhang Youxia, as the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, to appear during the meeting between Xi Jinping and the Pakistani Prime Minister. Secondly, he refuted the analysis by Hong Kong media that Zhang Youxia wearing a suit was merely following the lead of the guests.
Chen Pokong suggested that Xi Jinping, being skillful in power struggles, and with Pakistan being a quasi-ally of the CCP, the Chinese side would undoubtedly make requests to Pakistan, hoping for the military officers to dress informally. While Pakistan may not fully understand the reasons behind these requests, they would comply if such demands were made by the Chinese side.
Chen Pokong believes that Zhang Youxia’s appearance in a suit sends a signal that significant personnel changes may occur at the upcoming CCP Third Plenary Session. He speculates that Zhang Youxia may be reassigned to a civilian role and may no longer serve as Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission.
Chen Pokong pointed out that the discord between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia has been longstanding. Prior to the 20th National Congress of the CCP, Zhang Youxia had helped Xi Jinping consolidate power within the military, making significant contributions. However, as Xi Jinping’s power became increasingly centralized post the 20th Congress, Zhang Youxia began to see individuals holding military authority as a potential threat to his own safety.
He believes that Xi Jinping would undoubtedly involve individuals he trusts, while concurrently, the status of his wife, Peng Liyuan, is rapidly rising.
In early May, a photo of Peng Liyuan wearing a military uniform while inspecting a military academy suddenly circulated on social media. The photo showed Peng Liyuan in military attire, adorned with the rank of Major General, conducting research with several military personnel. The caption below the photo read: “Peng Liyuan, full-time member of the Central Military Commission’s cadre assessment committee, visits the academy to research high-level talent development.”
CCP’s official media did not report on this research activity, and the authenticity of the photo and the year it was taken remain unverified.
Peng Liyuan, born in Yuncheng County, Heze City, Shandong Province, is a renowned military singer with the rank of Major General. She has previously served as the head of the CCP’s General Political Song and Dance Troupe and as the president of a military arts academy. In 2017, the Military Arts merged into the National Defense University, forming the Military Culture College affiliated with the CCP’s military, leading to Peng Liyuan stepping down from her position as president. At that time, rumors circulated that she was transferred to the Senior Review Committee of the CCP Central Military Commission’s Political Work Department.
During Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe from May 5th to May 10th this year, Peng Liyuan accompanied him throughout the trip, sparking discussions across various sectors amid speculations that she might enter the CCP’s core of power.
Chen Pokong highlighted that currently, Zhang Youxia ditching his military attire while Peng Liyuan donning military uniform implies a clear contrast—suggesting Zhang Youxia’s military authority has been stripped while Peng Liyuan’s military status is strengthened.
He suggested that Peng Liyuan might receive a promotion at the upcoming Third Plenary Session, potentially being elevated to a member of the Central Committee, the Central Politburo, or the Central Military Commission. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain at the moment. However, if she were to be promoted to Vice Chairman of the Military Commission, it would be highly unusual, but such thoughts cannot be ignored.
Zhang Youxia has drawn significant attention due to recent political rumors surrounding him. The former Minister of National Defense of the CCP, Li Shangfu, who has been disgraced, was once Zhang Youxia’s subordinate when Zhang was the Minister of the CCP’s General Equipment Department. In 2014, Li Shangfu made his public appearance for the first time as the Deputy Minister of the General Equipment Department, with Zhang Youxia serving as the Minister at the time.
In January 2016, the CCP’s General Equipment Department was renamed the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission, with Zhang Youxia serving as the Minister from 2015 to 2017. In September 2017, Li Shangfu succeeded Zhang Youxia as the Minister.
On July 26, 2023, the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission issued a notice requiring relevant personnel to report corruption clues in the equipment procurement bidding process since October 2017. This period coincided with Li Shangfu taking over as the Minister of the Equipment Development Department of the Central Military Commission.
Born in July 1950, Zhang Youxia’s father, Zhang Zongsun, was a senior military leader of the CCP. Zhang Zongsun and Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun, were comrades in the same faction within the Party during the war years, and their families had deep ties. Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping maintained a close relationship.
Internal power struggles within the CCP have always been closely linked to military support. Xi Jinping’s governance has also relied heavily on Zhang Youxia’s strong support. Several years ago, Xi Jinping had intended to initiate a large-scale purge within the Central Security Bureau with the help of Zhang Youxia. It was reported that at that time, Xi Jinping’s faction received intelligence suggesting that some disgraced or soon-to-be disgraced old military leaders within the armed forces were unwilling to surrender and attempted to instigate a coup among some officials of the Central Security Bureau, posing a threat to Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan. At that time, Zhang Youxia personally spearheaded the reorganization of the Central Security Bureau, suspending some problematic officers of the rank of colonel and above for investigation by the military discipline commission.
Xi Jinping’s series of major cleansing actions within the military stem from his fear of the ancient Chinese prophecy “Tui Bei Tu.” The Epoch Times, through reliable sources, obtained information that due to domestic and international turmoil, Xi Jinping fears assassination, seeks guidance from high-level individuals, frequently absent from important events, and pays little attention to public perceptions of him.
Information received through reliable channels from The Epoch Times revealed: “Xi Jinping truly believes the prophecy and fears death. In the prophecy, there is an image of someone holding a bow and arrow, which he associates with missiles, hence he dismantled the missile troops, leading to arrests. This is the main reason.”
With Zhang Youxia having the character “弓” (bow) in his surname—Zhang, he falls under the category of those “carrying a bow,” which crossed a taboo with Xi.
(Reporter: Ning Xin contributed to this article)