Qin Peng Observes: Ukrainian Troops Invade Russia, China, and North Korea Calculate Their Own Interests

Good day, viewers. Welcome to “Observations by Qin Peng.”

Today’s focus: Ukraine has been attacking Russia for a whole week, occupying an area of 1,000 square kilometers! Putin vows to drive the Ukrainian army out but faces a dilemma. The continuation of the war will have a significant impact on the world, including the US elections.

Why did Kyiv launch this war? What are their motives? Is it to relieve pressure or prepare to attack Moscow? China’s hurried alignment has brought ridicule from Chinese netizens.

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On August 6, early in the morning, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack, entering Russia’s Kursk region from multiple directions, quickly occupying several checkpoints and field fortifications. Unlike previous attacks mainly conducted by small groups of Russian volunteers and Ukrainian forces, this time the attacking forces came from several experienced Ukrainian army brigades.

This war has caught the Russian military off guard and left local Russians shocked and saddened. It is the first time in human history that a nuclear-armed country has been invaded and Russia has been invaded by another country for the first time since World War II.

Due to Ukraine’s tight information blockade, little true information about the war has come out, but within Russia, there are various rumors swirling, including one that Putin had to flee the Kremlin and take refuge in a bunker by helicopter, although this has not been officially confirmed.

On Monday, at the border region and high-level security and government officials meeting convened by Putin, Kurask Region Acting Governor Alexei Smirnov reported to Putin that the Ukrainian army had crossed a 40-kilometer front, penetrating 12 kilometers into the Kursk region, now controlling 28 Russian settlements.

Smirnov reported that this operation resulted in 12 civilian deaths and 121 injuries, including 10 children. Approximately 121,000 people have been evacuated or left the combat-affected areas on their own. The total planned number for evacuation is 180,000.

Concerned about a potential second front attack by the Ukrainian army, another Russian border region near Kursk, Bryansk, has also issued new evacuation orders.

However, the actual area occupied by Ukraine may be larger. Ukrainian military leader Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on Monday that around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory are now under Ukrainian control.

This sudden attack has left many mysteries, such as how did Ukraine plan it? For what purpose? Why was Russia unprepared? Some even claim that the generals below did not dare speak the truth to Putin, leaving him in the dark, and so on.

Regarding the origin of the special operation, the UK’s The Times revealed that invading Russia was Zelensky’s most dangerous decision to date. The secret operation was planned for months, catching Moscow off guard, with forces ranging from 6,000 to 10,000 allocated for it.

“With regard to Ukraine’s military and resource constraints, they hesitated, but Zelensky is trying to change the perception that Ukraine would lose the war,” The Times reported.

The Russian military was caught off guard. I believe there is not as much conspiracy involved. Both the Russian and Chinese military operate under old-fashioned top-down bureaucratic command systems, requiring intelligence to be reported through multiple layers, leading to a lack of swift response to the invasion, which is not surprising. Additionally, due to Ukrainian military gaining air superiority with NATO assistance, Russia’s information analysis is not comprehensive or sensitive enough.

Furthermore, the Russian military likely did not consider the possibility of a Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory. Hence, their main forces are still engaged in the eastern part of Ukraine, while the border units are primarily composed of conscripts, easily defeated by the experienced Ukrainian forces.

In fact, I believe the Kremlin’s misjudgment has another important reason: a misinterpretation of the situation. Last year, a leaked Pentagon document revealed that Zelensky had been planning a bold attack on Russian territory since January 2023, which should have caught Putin’s attention. However, we later saw Russia repeatedly threatening to use nuclear weapons and other countries, including the US, attempting to restrict Ukraine’s access to weapons for attacks on Russian soil. Although the situation has changed now, with NATO partners openly approving the entry of long-range attack missiles into Ukraine, Russia may still believe that Ukraine will abide by the restrictions imposed by the US regarding attacks on Russian territory.

Another mystery is why Ukraine initiated this war. From the current perspective, I believe there are several purposes:

Last Saturday, Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged the attack, praising the armed forces for “pushing the war onto the aggressor’s territory.”

“Ukraine is proving that it does know how to restore justice and make sure to exert the pressure needed on the aggressors,” he stated.

For Ukraine, facing a lack of manpower, inadequate weaponry, and a 1,000-kilometer front line against Russia’s ruthless attacks, this cross-border strike greatly boosted public morale. This may help reverse domestic and international disappointment over its past few months’ stalemate in the eastern offensive and restore confidence from external allies.

In the initial days of the invasion, people speculated that Ukraine’s main target might be the Kursk nuclear plant, intending to use it as leverage to exchange for Russia’s occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Many also believed Ukraine was attempting to attack Moscow. However, I believe this is not Zelensky’s primary strategic intention. Instead, the most likely scenario is that Ukraine wants to create conditions for eventual peace talks.

Senior officials from both countries have recently echoed similar sentiments.

On Monday, Putin stated that the invasion was Ukraine’s attempt to “improve its negotiating position.”

“However, we cannot negotiate with those who unreasonably attack civilians, civilian infrastructure or pose threats to nuclear facilities. What can we talk about with them?” he said.

Putin also promised to “drive out” the enemy from Russian territory.

However, I believe Putin’s refusal to negotiate is primarily to save face given the Ukrainian army’s entry into Russian territory.

From the Ukrainian side, President Zelensky’s advisor Mikhail Podoliak stated last Thursday that the cross-border attack would make Russia “begin to realize that the war is slowly spreading into Russian territory.” He also claimed that such actions would improve Kyiv’s advantage in future negotiations with Moscow.

“When can we negotiate with them, or get something from them as we wish? Only when the war does not go according to their plan,” he said.

Kyiv’s third strategic goal, in my opinion, is to “besiege Wei to rescue Zhao,” attempting to break Russia’s control over eastern Ukraine.

A US official indicated that the current assessment is that one of the reasons Ukraine launched the invasion was to disrupt Russian supply lines on the northern front near Kharkiv, where Moscow’s forces had previously invaded.

The US stated that they were not informed about the operation before it was launched. The Biden administration urged Ukraine not to launch military strikes against Russia, but considering Russia’s attacks on the Kharkiv region, this invasion aligns with the US provision allowing Ukraine to use US-provided weapons for self-defense. – However, I believe these assertions are diplomatic expressions, and before starting the war, Ukraine undoubtedly communicated with the US.

Regarding the idea of officially attacking Moscow, as many netizens suggested, I believe it’s unlikely as Ukraine does not have the necessary strength.

A notably influential Russian military blog, Rybar, stated on Monday, “Evidently, the Ukrainian armed forces are not avoiding stretching our defense lines, creating the maximum number of tension points, and attempting to break through from the east to reduce defense forces.”

This harassment is undoubtedly the goal. However, compared to the Russian military, Ukraine is still at a disadvantage in terms of firearms and numbers in most areas.

Vienna military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady noted that the next stage of the Kursk invasion depends on what reserves both sides have and how they deploy those reserves.

Gady stated that the main issue of this operation is that it has not changed the fundamental nature of the eastern front in Ukraine. He said, “The Kursk operation requires a significant amount of resources, especially infantry personnel, which may be more urgently needed elsewhere.”

“At least so far, we have not felt any changes.” A Ukrainian officer near Chasyvial also stated, “The Russians will not move any forces from the east to Kursk. They have reserves.”

One major obstacle for Ukraine to truly advance towards Moscow comes from Western allies. This attack utilized American Bradley tanks and German-made infantry fighting vehicles, but countries like France and Italy currently express reluctance to support Ukraine’s offensive against Russian territory.

It should be noted that with the intent to call back Russian soldiers to defend, Ukraine might pretend to advance towards Moscow.

How long can Ukraine defend itself in this situation is yet to be observed. However, without a doubt, Ukraine’s offensive has put China, Russia, and even North Korea in an awkward position.

For Moscow, this action crossed Putin’s red lines and even baseline, as Putin had stated that any attack on Russian territory, including eastern states, would prompt the use of nuclear weapons.

Even in a conventional war, Putin faces a dilemma: if he counterattacks vigorously, it will damage his cultivated image of being loved by the people by attacking his own cities; however, if he responds slowly, allowing the Ukrainian military to stay on their soil for a longer period, it also damages his image.

China and North Korea also find themselves in an uncomfortable situation. Their commitments to Russia now seem double-minded. They currently appear to be acting like turtles withdrawing into their shells.

On August 8, Xinhua News Agency reported that Russia claimed to have thwarted Ukraine’s attack on Kursk Region; however, after a week, Ukrainian forces have expanded their occupied area.

On August 9, China Central Radio repeated the statement of the Russian Ambassador to the US that “Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Kursk region is a terrorist act,” which led to many Chinese netizens mockingly saying, “Russia’s attack on Ukraine is a special military operation, while Ukraine’s counterattack against Russia is a terrorist act.”

Under related news, Chinese netizens’ comments have been deemed “equal to the level of Foreign Ministry spokespersons”: “We hope Russia exercises restraint, resolves differences through peaceful means, and maintains peace and stability in the region. The Kursk issue has a complicated historical context. Understanding the intricacies of the Kursk situation and resolving concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect is essential. Both Russia and Ukraine should exercise restraint.” “We understand and support the Donetsk People’s Republic’s desire to join Ukraine.”

After the back-and-forth, China seemed to get ‘smarter.’ On August 12, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson commented on the Ukrainian army’s attack on Russian territory, stating, “China notice the situation concerned. China’s stance on the Ukraine issue has always been consistent and clear, urging all parties to abide by the ‘three principles’ to cool the situation, namely, the war does not overflow, the conflict does not escalate, and all parties do not fuel the flames. China will continue to maintain communication with the international community and play a constructive role in promoting a political resolution to the crisis.”

Mockingly, netizens noted that China didn’t expect Russia to be so useless.

Some also questioned North Korea’s alliance with Russia, recalling that Kim Jong-un had signed a defense mutual assistance agreement with Putin, promising mutual support in the event of aggression. Why isn’t North Korea sending troops?

Indeed, the little pork has appeared untrustworthy. Previously, Putin bestowed luxury cars on him and even took him on joyrides, but now that Russia is in trouble, North Korea isn’t offering any help. While it might allow the hungry soldiers to eat a few more meals of rice and pork, it could also help deplete some of the unstable ammunition!

However, we all actually know that both China and North Korea are unreliable: the Soviet Union initially supported China but ended up with several conflicts; before the Russia-Ukraine war, Xi Jinping had promised Putin an “unlimited” guarantee, but shortly after Russia faced severe international sanctions, China withdrew significantly. What about North Korea? With China’s help, the Kim family gained power, but they also turned against each other several times. Therefore, if Putin or his successors are intelligent enough, they should seize the opportunity and bravely betray China, returning to the democratic community.

This outcome is entirely inevitable. As the ancients said, “Deal based on interest, once the interest is gone, then it disperses; making a deal based on power, when the power collapses, it crumbles.” The interaction between dictators is always calculating for themselves, lacking true shared values, making it challenging to maintain for long durations.

So, what will be the next development in the Russia-Ukraine war, and how will the relationships between China, Russia, and North Korea evolve? Let us wait and see with anticipation.

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