Hello, audience, welcome to “Qin Peng Observation.”
Today’s focus: US election, analysis of 7 key states: Blue wall is collapsing, Sunbelt states are turning redder. The performances of these two states outside the battleground states may determine the election outcome ahead of schedule.
As of October 29, over 50 million people in the US have already voted early, accounting for about one-third of the total presidential votes in 2020. Among them, registered Democrats make up about 39%, while registered Republicans make up about 36%. Due to Republicans’ tendency to vote on election day, this data suggests a higher possibility of Trump winning the popular vote.
However, fierce competition is still underway in the swing states. The results may not be known until the last day.
This year, there are seven swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three “rust belt” states, as well as four “Sunbelt” states, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. With a total population of 61 million and 93 electoral votes, these states play a crucial role in determining the national election outcome.
Among them, Pennsylvania with 19 electoral votes, being the most in the swing states, is considered a battleground where victory may lead to overall success. Over the past few months, both sides have heavily invested troops and significant amounts of money. For example, Kamala Harris criticized Trump’s restrictions on abortion rights in Pennsylvania, while Trump held rallies in Butler after the assassination attempt and even gave away lottery prizes signed by Musk of $1 million a day to support constitutional rights, with all the first three days’ winners being Pennsylvanians. The skirmish between Harris and Trump over McDonald’s also found an outlet in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is considered a microcosm of the United States, with a diverse economic structure, population demographics, and election characteristics similar to the whole country. The average income per person in the state is also close to the national average. Whites make up the majority, with 11% being Black, similar to the national average of about 12.3%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, mostly lean towards the Democratic Party, while other vast regions are Republican strongholds.
When asked about the primary policy issues influencing their choices, Pennsylvania voters supporting Harris and Trump have very different reactions. Trump supporters prioritize economic conditions and illegal immigration, while Harris supporters emphasize abortion, personal rights, and character as their primary considerations.
Looking at the polls, the current gap in Pennsylvania is very narrow, with Trump leading by only 0.4%, well within the margin of error. In the past few recent presidential elections, the margin between the two sides has only been a few thousand votes, making every vote extremely valuable. Both sides are fiercely fighting for every inch now.
To secure victory in Pennsylvania, both sides are pulling out all the stops. Democrats are targeting college campuses in red counties, while Republicans are seeking support from a mysterious group, the Amish.
In 2020, a widely circulated story within the Chinese community was that the Amish, who lead a secluded life and rarely interfere in politics, had a revelation and rushed with their horse-drawn carriages to vote for Trump. However, in reality, the number of votes from this group was much smaller compared to the total population.
According to research, there are around 92,000 Amish of all ages in Pennsylvania, with half concentrated in the Lancaster area and the rest scattered throughout the state. It is estimated that in 2020, there were about 3,000 Amish votes in the Lancaster area and a few hundred elsewhere.
However, this remains crucial in Pennsylvania, and this year presents a good opportunity. In January, Amos Miller’s farm was raided for selling unpasteurized milk, which sparked a sensational event and unwittingly became the center of the US culture war. Republicans plan to pull out thousands, even up to 20,000 votes from the Amish community this year.
Pennsylvania is one of the few states that does not allow election officials to process or count mail-in ballots before 7 a.m. Eastern Time on Election Day, which means it may take a few more days to know the results. Therefore, it is expected that this year, both sides will see similar incidents of conspiracy theories and numerous legal battles regarding votes, just like in 2020.
In fact, disputes in Pennsylvania are already unfolding, including Musk being sued for violating the state’s ban on private gambling establishments with a $1 million prize, Republicans filing a lawsuit with the Supreme Court regarding Pennsylvania, and Trump tweeting on October 29 about York County, Pennsylvania having thousands of potentially fraudulent voter registration forms and mail-in ballot applications from third-party groups. Prior to this, Lancaster County was found to possess 2,600 fake ballots and forms, all filled out by the same person. He questioned, “What’s happening in Pennsylvania? Law enforcement must act immediately!”
My judgment on Pennsylvania’s election result this year is that it will continue to be unfavorable for Trump. We shall wait and see.
Among the seven swing states, one that has essentially wrapped up early is North Carolina. On October 29, Harris’s campaign team withdrew $2 million in advertising expenditure from North Carolina, which is seen as Democrats acknowledging deteriorating early voting results.
North Carolina has 16 electoral votes and hasn’t been won by Democrats since 2008. In 2020, Trump won the state by a narrow margin of 70,000 votes. The latest polls on major platforms show Trump leading Harris by 1% to 2%, a narrow margin.
This year in North Carolina, Democrats faced an unexpected challenge in October when Hurricane Helen swept through, claiming at least 95 lives. Vice President Harris participated in post-disaster recovery efforts, but Trump and his daughter Ivanka also appeared there, with Musk donating a batch of Starlink to help restore communications. Republicans criticized the Biden administration for ineffective disaster relief and FEMA’s corruption.
The reason Harris’s team could pull out of North Carolina was due to early voting data. As of the end of voting on October 28, 3.1 million people had voted, equivalent to nearly 40% of eligible voters. This number is slightly lower than 2020 during the pandemic but significantly higher than 2016. Compared to 2020, the Democratic vote has decreased by 350,000 so far.
Moreover, Republicans currently hold the largest share of early voters at 34.14%. Democrats and unaffiliated voters account for 33.03% and 32.24% of early voters, respectively. It is well-known that Democrats tend to vote early, while Republicans lean towards voting on election day.
The other two key states in the rust belt are Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump became the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988 in 2016. Winning the state grants 15 electoral votes. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes and traditionally a blue state, except for 2016 when it voted for the Democrats. Currently, Harris leads Trump by 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin, an increase by 0.2 percentage points last week.
In Michigan, although previous polls showed Harris in the lead, a new survey by Emerson College/RealClearWorld found that 49% support Trump, 48% support Harris, 2% are undecided, and 1% plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
I believe that Trump will win in Michigan this year for two reasons:
1. The Muslim and Arab communities announced their support for Trump last weekend, a significant group of 240,000 people, even though usually a hundred thousand of them vote.
2. Since the 2020 election, Michigan has implemented early in-person voting for the first time and started allowing jurisdictions with over 5,000 people to process and count mail-in ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can start a day before November 5. Officials hope these changes will allow the state to report the results faster than in 2020. This favors Republicans.
Of course, there is also positive news for Democrats. On October 25, the day before early in-person voting began statewide in Michigan, another presidential candidate for the year, presently supporting Trump, Little Kennedy, filed an emergency injunction with the Supreme Court to remove Mr. Kennedy’s name from the upcoming election ballots. Yet, as of today, Little Kennedy’s name remains on the ballots. This could split Trump’s vote.
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