Amidst China’s economic stagnation, rumors regarding the declining power and unsettled status of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping have resurfaced. During a provincial and ministerial-level official meeting yesterday (29th), Xi appeared to soften his tone in response to internal and external doubts. Analysts believe that economic difficulties have intensified internal party struggles, placing Xi and the CCP in their most precarious period.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on October 29th, the CCP held a seminar at the Central Party School for provincial and ministerial-level officials to “study” the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee. Xi Jinping delivered a speech at the opening ceremony.
During the meeting, Xi discussed reform and opening up, emphasizing that his reforms are “directional and principled,” beginning with “adhering to the overall leadership of the Party” and “upholding the people’s democratic dictatorship.” He also stated, “We resolutely reform what needs to be reformed and leave unchanged what does not need to be reformed.”
Xi demanded these party officials to “enhance their sense of political responsibility,” “face contradictions squarely without evasion, decisively eliminate deep-rooted problems, and not retreat in the face of risks and challenges.” He also stressed the need to “adhere to the unity of reform and the rule of law,” “adhere to the unity of reform and opening up,” and “enhance the consistency of reform orientation,” among other points.
Political commentator Li Linyi told Epoch Times that from Xi Jinping’s words, it is evident that he is currently facing numerous challenges. His speech appears to be a form of self-justification or response to criticism. For instance, Xi’s statement “We resolutely reform what needs to be reformed and leave unchanged what does not need to be reformed” lacked the word “resolutely” in the latter part, indicating that he is struggling within the party, hence his softened stance and lack of confidence. Additionally, Xi’s call for officials to “face contradictions squarely without evasion” suggests a significant issue of bureaucrats shirking responsibilities, while his emphasis on unity and consistency reflects severe internal disagreements within the party.
Li Linyi believes that the current state of the Chinese economy, with a significant outflow of foreign capital and a 30% drop in FDI in the first three quarters of this year, is causing concern within the CCP. Xi Jinping is backtracking on his previous measures and is reluctant to fully open up the economy, clinging to so-called principles under the guise of party leadership that cannot be altered. However, the authorities seem to lack effective strategies, and phrases like “breakthroughs and consolidations, laying foundations before dismantling” have been reiterated multiple times with no fresh insights.
China expert Wang He told Epoch Times that Xi Jinping is now seeking a way out for himself. The CCP hierarchy previously revolved around Xi’s authority, but now his power seems to have been compromised and restricted, potentially undergoing adjustments in decision-making rights internally. The CCP is currently in a mess, rendering any leader powerless, resulting in severe disagreements at the highest levels, without any viable solutions being presented.
Regarding Xi Jinping’s criticism of the ‘lying flat’ trend, Wang He suggested that even Xi’s own position is not secure, as he may be using ‘lying flat’ tactics to deal with political opponents.
“Xi Jinping recently visited the Six-Foot Lane in Tongcheng, Anhui. While he has always emphasized about being adept at and willing to engage in struggles, suddenly promoting concession could be seen as his response to opposing forces. Thus, he is suggesting that he could step back, challenging others to stand up in his place.”
Political analyst Tang Jingyuan also told Epoch Times that since the third plenary session has recently concluded, the timing for the fourth plenary session might be postponed accordingly. Moreover, with the current U.S. presidential election affecting U.S.-China relations and significant domestic and foreign policy decisions, the CCP is waiting for the results before determining their next steps.
On October 28, the CCP’s Political Bureau held a meeting to review a report on the situation of the third round of inspections by the 20th Central Committee. Official media reported that the meeting discussed other matters, but did not mention the timing for convening the fourth plenary session.
According to Wang He, the fourth plenary session may not be held this year due to the current political climate within the CCP. The possibility of the fourth plenary session for next year is also uncertain. “Internal struggles may continue for a while before a preliminary outcome is reached. Therefore, at present, the fourth plenary session seems distant.”
Tang Jingyuan suggests that since the third plenary session has just taken place, the timing for the fourth plenary session might be pushed back. Coupled with the ongoing U.S. presidential election, which significantly impacts U.S.-China relations and major domestic and foreign policies, the top CCP leadership is waiting for the results before deciding on the next course of action.
On October 24, CCP Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia visited Vietnam and received a high-level reception. Official CCP media did not report on this visit until October 26. During his meeting with senior officials of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Zhang Youxia did not seem to mention CCP leader Xi Jinping. Recent rumors surrounding Xi Jinping’s military authority waning and criticism from party elders on economic matters have led to widespread attention on the unusual circumstances in Zhongnanhai.
Wang He mentioned that Zhang Youxia is considered a princeling of the CCP with natural connections to party elders. If the military and elders collaborate, Xi Jinping’s position may be precarious. Therefore, for Xi Jinping, addressing economic issues is crucial; if he fails in economic matters, his position will be jeopardized.
“The CCP may be on the verge of collapse at any time. Internal struggles are intense, but there is a consensus to maintain superficial unity and the relative stability of the situation. Therefore, Xi Jinping is being pushed to the forefront, continuing to perform and work, essentially continuing to bear the blame.”
He believes that Xi Jinping is in a precarious position now. If he remains inactive, it will not work, but any actions he takes based on his own ideas are likely to be denied and questioned within the party, making it his most dangerous period since assuming office in 2012. In other words, this is also the most dangerous period for the CCP, as no one can save the party.
Tang Jingyuan pointed out that the biggest dilemma for the CCP currently is that it has entered a dead-end. Since the end of the Cultural Revolution initiated by Mao Zedong, the CCP has been in an ideological dead-end, with Deng Xiaoping extending the so-called legitimacy of governance through unilateral economic openness for several decades.
“The problem is that under Xi Jinping’s series of blows to the reform and opening-up economic policies, the CCP has faced an irreversible and severe economic crisis, losing its final bit of legitimacy. They are at a loss for any way out,” he said.