The countdown to the inauguration ceremony of the President-elect of the Republic of China, Tsai Ing-wen, on May 20th, is underway. The tension in the Taiwan Strait is escalating, with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and Navy of the Chinese Communist Party conducting another round of so-called “combat readiness patrols” in the airspace and waters around Taiwan on May 14th. Some military aircraft even crossed the traditional median line of the Taiwan Strait. Experts point out that the CCP aims to react to Tsai’s inauguration through military actions, posing a military threat to Taiwan. The CCP’s actions to create an internalization atmosphere raise concerns about potential confrontations.
On May 14th, the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan reported that Taiwan detected 23 instances of Chinese military aircraft and naval vessels, including Su-30 fighter jets, conducting “joint combat readiness patrols” in the airspace and waters around Taiwan starting from 5 p.m. that day. Fifteen of these instances involved Chinese military aircraft crossing the traditional median line or nearby airspace, operating in the northern, central, and southwestern airspace of Taiwan.
The median line of the Taiwan Strait has long been regarded as the informal boundary between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. However, since the visit of former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in early August 2022, Beijing has publicly denied the existence of the median line and Chinese military aircraft have repeatedly crossed it.
The Taiwan Coast Guard Administration also stated that five Chinese coast guard ships were conducting patrol activities in the “prohibited and restricted waters” around Kinmen. The Coast Guard Administration dispatched six patrol vessels to respond. This marks the fifth time this month that Chinese coast guard ships have entered the “prohibited and restricted waters” around Kinmen for so-called law enforcement and patrols.
Tsai Ing-wen, the current Chairperson of the Democratic Progressive Party and Vice President of the Republic of China, was elected as the President in the January election this year and will officially assume office at the inauguration ceremony next Monday (May 20th).
Liberal scholar Yuan Hongbing, currently residing in Australia, expressed to Dajiyuan on May 15th that since Tsai Ing-wen’s successful election as President, the CCP has set a dual policy. One involves intensifying united front efforts to create chaos within Taiwan, while the other is exerting greater military pressure to maintain tense cross-strait relations. This display of military actions by the CCP ahead of Tsai’s inauguration is a predictable posture.
Researcher at the Cross-Strait Policy Association and Advisory Committee of Taiwan Think-Tank, Wu Sezhi, shared on May 15th with Dajiyuan that the CCP intends to respond to Tsai’s presidency through military maneuvers to satisfy domestic needs and to establish military threats against Taiwan. The military threat or harassment from the CCP to Taiwan will continue.
Beijing has consistently labeled Tsai Ing-wen as a supporter of “Taiwan independence”, while Tsai has expressed willingness to engage in fair dialogue with Beijing but has been repeatedly rebuffed. In a pre-recorded video speech for the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, Tsai stated that she will strive to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. She said, “I do not exclude dialogue with China under the premise of no preconditions, mutual respect, and dignity.”
Yuan Hongbing remarked that the CCP does not recognize Taiwan’s independent sovereignty or the existence of the Republic of China. The premise of CCP negotiations is that they are not on equal footing and seek to crush Taiwan under the guise of a central regime. Naturally, Taiwan cannot accept this.
Wu Sezhi pointed out that the CCP’s insistence on the One-China principle as a political prerequisite impedes interactions between the two sides, especially with the ruling parties. Beijing hopes that the Kuomintang will actively engage on these terms, allowing the CCP to penetrate Taiwan’s internal political operations, without easing pressure on Taiwan.
In February this year, a non-registered speedboat intruded into the “prohibited and restricted waters” around Kinmen, resulting in a collision with Taiwan Coast Guard vessels and two fatalities on board when attempting to escape.
Subsequent negotiations between the two sides in Kinmen on this issue failed to reach consensus on responsibility and compensation. The Taiwan Affairs Office of Beijing claimed that there are no “prohibited and restricted waters” around Kinmen. Following this, Chinese coast guard and government vessels began conducting “routine” law enforcement and patrols in these waters.
Yuan Hongbing stated that the incident was incited by the CCP and used as a pretext to escalate provocations against Taiwan. Their denial of a prohibited zone around Kinmen signifies their refusal to acknowledge Taiwan’s sovereignty over Kinmen, and by extension, the Republic of China. This paves the way for a future excuse to launch a war in the Taiwan Strait.
Wu Sezhi opined that the CCP seeks to internalize the waters around the Taiwan Strait, intending to demonstrate strategic initiative in the area. By employing a “salami-slicing” approach, they hope to trend toward an internalized situation in the Taiwan Strait.
He believes that as tensions escalate with the enforcement actions of the CCP’s coast guard, there is a possibility of rash decisions or accidental clashes. However, if a conflict were to erupt between the two sides at this point in time, given China’s domestic and external circumstances, the CCP would find itself in deeper trouble.
Yuan Hongbing remarked that while the possibility of a clash exists, it is unlikely to immediately escalate into a large-scale war. He indicates that the CCP internally assesses that regardless of the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election, it may trigger political division and social unrest akin to the previous U.S. election. Therefore, they believe that the period after the U.S. fall election in 2024 is strategically decisive for the CCP to initiate conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The CCP’s purported strategic steadfastness implies their intent to launch a war in the Taiwan Strait according to their predetermined timeline.
The Taiwan Strait has been separated since 1949, with both sides not recognizing each other. The CCP openly declares willingness to resort to force to achieve reunification across the strait, increasing military pressure on Taiwan in recent years. However, Taiwan insists that its future can only be determined by its 23 million people.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait has always been a focal point for the United States. Reuters disclosed on May 14th, citing sources, that the U.S. and Taiwan navies conducted a joint exercise in the Pacific in April involving approximately six warships, including frigates, supply ships, and support vessels, but no official announcement was made.
Due to Beijing’s opposition to any military contact between the U.S. and Taiwan, military visits and training between the two parties are kept discreet. The Taiwan Navy stated that in handling maritime incidents and minimizing “interference,” they followed the guidelines of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES), promoted by the U.S.
According to reports from CNA, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell stated on May 13th that the current period is crucial, with the U.S. prioritizing the maintenance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, asserting confidence in facing challenges.
Yuan Hongbing told Dajiyuan that in response to the threats and provocations posed by the CCP to Taiwan’s security, the U.S. must further strengthen potential military alliances with Taiwan.
Given Taiwan’s critical economic and geopolitical strategic position, directly related to fundamental U.S. national interests, the U.S. cannot stand idly by and watch as the CCP captures free Taiwan. If the CCP initiates war in the Taiwan Strait, leading to a comprehensive war conflict with the U.S., Japan, the UK, Australia, and other countries, this outcome is highly likely.
Wu Sezhi emphasized that Taiwan-U.S. military cooperation or joint exercises aim to enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities in responding to CCP military threats. The prominent role of the U.S. military in the Taiwan Strait region serves as a warning to the CCP that any military aggression against Taiwan will come with consequences.