Japanese scholar Kisayasu Ogasawara published a commentary in the Japanese media stating that Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s inaugural speech continued the policy line of the former Tsai administration by using the stance of “maintaining the status quo” towards the Chinese Communist Party, conveying a strong determination to protect Taiwan. However, President Lai did not mention “One China” or the “1992 Consensus,” indicating a strong sense of caution towards the CCP.
Ogasawara pointed out in a commentary in the “Sankei Shimbun” that while former President Tsai Ing-wen used the terms “both sides” and “opposite side” in her inaugural speech, President Lai consistently used the term “China” throughout his speech. Additionally, President Lai did not mention the “One China” principle or the “1992 Consensus” at all, showing a deep wariness towards the CCP.
During the eight years of Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency in Taiwan, the concept of “Taiwanese identity” dominated. According to a poll in April this year, 76.1% of the population believed that “both sides are two different countries.” President Lai also mentioned in his speech that “the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other,” using terms that were not present in Tsai’s inaugural speech eight years ago. Ogasawara believes that President Lai’s speech is based on the will of the Taiwanese people and their understanding of the CCP.
On the other hand, President Lai did not mention topics such as drafting a new constitution that touch on “Taiwanese independence,” in order to avoid unnecessary provocation to the CCP. Instead, he emphasized “maintaining the status quo,” aiming to protect the “democratic Republic of China, Taiwan.” President Lai’s approach is similar to that of former President Tsai, making it clear that Taiwan will not succumb to pressure from the CCP. While the CCP will inevitably criticize President Lai, they should pay attention to the Taiwanese sentiment of “maintaining the status quo.”
In the recent Taiwan presidential election, many young people’s votes went to other political parties, and the largest party in the Legislative Yuan was taken over by the opposition party, the Kuomintang. Ogasawara stated that the internal policy issues emphasized by President Lai in his speech, such as strengthening the economy, appeared more abstract compared to the overwhelming victory achieved by former President Tsai, reflecting the challenges of the Democratic Progressive Party in governance.
He mentioned that just before President Lai’s inauguration, there was a conflict between the ruling and opposition parties in the Legislative Yuan. The CCP sees this conflict as a “usable” situation, potentially using the majority held by the opposition parties to amend laws unfavorable to the CCP and shake the Lai government in the legislative field.
Ogasawara stated that before the next presidential election, the CCP may show more distrust towards the DPP government, but since the majority of Taiwanese people believe that “Taiwan is not China,” it is also difficult for the Kuomintang to get too close to the CCP. How the Lai government influences young people who are not very concerned about cross-strait issues is worth paying attention to.
He also mentioned that although President Lai did not mention Japan in his speech, the pro-Japan President Lai has close ties with many Liberal Democratic Party members, understanding deeply what Japan can and cannot do. The emergence of the Lai government will help expand people-to-people exchanges between Taiwan and Japan, strengthening mutual trust, which is beneficial for Japan.
(Translated from Central News Agency)