Preliminary results of the South African general election indicate that the African National Congress (ANC) is set to lose its parliamentary majority after three decades, marking the most dramatic political shift since the end of apartheid in South Africa.
According to reports from Reuters, data from the South African Electoral Commission shows that among 13.9% of the votes counted, the top three parties are as follows: ANC with 42.6%; the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) with 25.8%; and the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) with 8.5%.
If the final election results mirror these early numbers, the ANC will likely have to form a coalition government with one or more other parties, potentially leading to unprecedented political turmoil in the coming weeks or months.
Simon Harvey, Head of Forex Analysis for Monex Europe, expressed concerns about the balancing of power within the ANC, highlighting the risk of internal strife causing governance challenges. Harvey stated, “If the coalition talks drag on, concerns about future political deadlock may arise.”
Such uncertainties have put pressure on the South African markets, with the rand falling over 1% against the US dollar to hit a four-week low, and the stock index (JTOPI) dropping over 2%, marking a six-week low.
Since 1994, the ANC has won every national election held every five years. Nelson Mandela’s presidency back then marked the end of apartheid in South Africa. However, increasing dissatisfaction among voters regarding high unemployment, soaring crime rates, frequent power outages, and corruption has led to a decline in ANC’s popularity.
In the previous 2019 elections, the ANC secured 57.5% of the votes, while the DA garnered 20.8% and the EFF received 10.8%, with a voter turnout of 66%.
As per the South African constitution, the newly elected National Assembly will choose the next president. The current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, remains at the helm of the ANC, but faces potential challenges from within the party.
In the populous eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal, the party led by former South African President Jacob Zuma, the ‘Inkatha Freedom Party’ (IFP), received 42.7% of the vote compared to ANC’s 21.4%.
Zuma resigned in 2018 amidst a series of scandals and has since supported the IFP after falling out with the ANC leadership.
After polls close, the Electoral Commission has seven days to announce the final election results, although this typically occurs sooner. In the previous 2019 elections, held on a Wednesday like this year, the final results were announced by Saturday.
The new parliament must convene within 14 days of the final results being declared, with electing the national president as the first order of business. If the ANC ends up losing its majority in the elections, it might entail tense and intricate negotiations within the two weeks post-results announcement to reach a consensus on forming a coalition government.