A recent poll shows that more than half of Taiwanese believe that in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States would assist Taiwan regardless of who wins the US presidential election. At the same time, over 70% of South Koreans say that in case of a North-South Korean conflict, the US would defend South Korea regardless of the outcome.
Joe Biden withdrew on July 21, and the Democratic Party is likely to be represented by Vice President Kamala Harris against the Republican Donald Trump. The poll was conducted a week before Biden’s withdrawal, focusing on the views of Taiwanese and South Korean people on the US election.
The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5. The poll shows that 54.7% of Taiwanese respondents believe that the US would assist Taiwan in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait regardless of the next US president. However, nearly 37.3% of people think that assistance would not be provided regardless of the election outcome.
Additionally, 2.1% of Taiwanese believe that only Trump’s election would lead to US assistance, while 5.9% think that only Biden’s reelection would result in help for Taiwan.
In Korea, a substantial 71.4% of respondents say that in the event of a North-South Korean conflict, the US would defend South Korea regardless of who wins, with only 12.1% believing that no assistance would be provided regardless of the election outcome. 2.2% believe that only Trump’s election would lead to US assistance to Korea, while 14.3% say that only Biden’s reelection would result in help.
The poll asked respondents who they preferred to win. In Taiwan, 23.2% favor Biden, 17.1% hope for Trump to win, with 45.7% undecided and 14% having no opinion. As for South Korea, 39.4% of people lean towards Biden, 12.6% prefer Trump, 15.4% are unsure, and 32.6% have no opinion.
When asked which candidate winning would be better for Taiwan and Korea, 27.7% of Taiwanese respondents believe Biden would be better, while 14.7% choose Trump, with 28.7% unsure and 28.9% having no opinion. Over half of Korean respondents (52.4%) choose Biden, 13.8% prefer Trump, while 14.3% are unsure, and 19.5% have no opinion.
Regarding the trustworthiness of the United States as an ally, 42.4% of Taiwanese hold a neutral stance, 33.6% do not trust or have no trust at all, and only 24% trust or have full trust in the US. However, nearly half (48.3%) of South Korean respondents trust or have full trust in the US, 34.6% remain neutral, and only 17.1% do not trust or have no trust at all in this ally.
This poll was published on July 30 on the Brookings Institution’s website and was jointly conducted by Assistant Professor Lev Nachman from National Taiwan University, Assistant Professor Hannah June Kim from West River University in South Korea, and Assistant Professor Wei-Ting Yen from Franklin & Marshall College in the US.
(Translated from Central News Agency)