On October 9, a top military think tank in Taiwan released the results of a public opinion poll, indicating that the majority of Taiwanese people believe that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the next five years, but still consider it a serious threat to the democratic nation.
The Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) surveyed approximately 1,200 Taiwanese people last month. The results showed that 61% of respondents believed that the possibility of a CCP attack on Taiwan in the next five years is “unlikely or very unlikely.”
Regarding the security challenges facing Taiwan, 63.9% of those surveyed viewed “China’s territorial ambitions” as a “serious threat,” while 19.4% considered it an “important but not serious threat,” and only 9.5% thought it was “not important.”
Assistant researcher Christina Chen from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research stated that “most people believe that China’s territorial ambitions will not manifest in the form of an attack on Taiwan.”
However, she also mentioned that Taiwanese people are concerned about other CCP threats, including military exercises and propaganda activities.
The Institute for National Defense and Security Research believes that “this indicates that the people of Taiwan are aware of the threats but maintain a calm and rational outlook on the impending conflict.”
Over 67% of the respondents indicated that they would be somewhat willing or very willing to fight to defend Taiwan if attacked by the CCP. However, opinions were split on whether Taiwan’s armed forces have the capability to defend the island, with half expressing confidence and the other half lacking confidence.
Assistant researcher Lee Kuan-chen from the Institute for National Defense and Security Research suggested that Taiwan’s military should continue to strengthen its defense capabilities to build public trust.
The survey also revealed differing opinions among the public regarding whether the United States would help defend Taiwan.
While 74% of respondents believed that the U.S. government might provide “indirect” assistance to Taiwan through the provision of food, medical supplies, and weapons, only 52% thought that the U.S. military would dispatch armed forces for intervention.
Lee Kuan-chen expressed that the Taiwanese government should handle Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation more transparently to avoid people having overly high or low expectations of U.S. assistance.
Director Lee Wen-chung of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research interpreted the poll results as showing a lack of confidence among the public in direct U.S. military intervention, possibly due to the United States’ ambiguous strategic stance.
Some statements by U.S. President Biden seem to imply that the U.S. would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack, deviating from the long-standing “strategic ambiguity” position of the United States.
The CCP considers Taiwan its territory and has significantly increased military activities directed at Taiwan in the past five years, asserting that it has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification with Taiwan.
(References: Reuters and Central News Agency)