New York City’s mayoral election is in full swing today, with the Democratic candidate and socialist Zohran Mamdani on the brink of victory. The latest poll indicates that if he wins, around 9% of New York City residents are considering “definitely moving out,” while another 25% are contemplating the idea. If these numbers hold true, it could lead to a mass exodus of over a million New Yorkers, marking one of the largest population outflows in U.S. history and triggering significant economic and social upheaval.
According to a survey conducted by J.L. Partners for the Daily Mail, approximately 9% (about 765,000 people) of New York City residents stated they would definitely leave if Mamdani becomes the mayor, with an additional 25% (around 2.12 million people) saying they would consider relocating. Among those earning over $250,000 annually, about 7% expressed certainty in leaving. Men showed a higher inclination to move compared to women, with 12% versus 7% respectively. The age group of 50-64 demonstrated a particularly high willingness to relocate, with 12% definite and 33% considering. In terms of ethnicity, approximately 13% of white residents, and 11% of Asian residents stated they would definitely move. In terms of regional differences, 21% of Staten Island residents expressed certainty in leaving, with 54% considering it, whereas Manhattan and Brooklyn residents showed relatively lower relocation intentions.
Even if only the 765,000 individuals who are determined to leave actually do so, it would be equivalent to the entire population of Washington D.C. or Seattle migrating out of New York City.
Representatives from the survey agency noted, “If the scale of the exodus approaches this number, the impact on the economy of New York City and even the entire U.S. would be seismic.” A mass departure of residents could lead to a reduction in the tax base, a weakening housing market, business and talent outflows, and a disruption in the balance of public service expenditures and income for the city.
Several media outlets have pointed out that the data may contain exaggerations or sensationalism, and the actual actions of residents could differ significantly from the survey results.
Given Mamdani’s lead in pre-election polls, concerns about the potential social and economic impacts of his election have become the focus of public opinion. If a significant number of New Yorkers do choose to depart, it would not only transform the city’s urban landscape but also potentially have far-reaching implications on the competitive landscape, tax policies, housing market, and productivity chain of major urban centers across the U.S.