Recently, the Polish government announced the sudden closure of all border crossings with Belarus, causing the main route of the China-Europe Railway Express to be interrupted. As a significant project under China’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” nearly 90% of the freight volume of the China-Europe Railway Express has been affected by this decision. Industry insiders point out that this move has directly impacted Chinese foreign trade enterprises, potentially causing delays worth around $470 million in goods per week in the short term.
This mid-September decision by the Polish government to close all border crossings with Belarus, including railway and road crossings, citing national security concerns, has severed the main artery of the China-Europe Railway Express. This has resulted in the forced suspension or rerouting of the majority of railway freight relying on the “Poland-Belarus corridor.”
Mr. Li, an international relations scholar at Tsinghua University in Beijing, stated in an interview with a media outlet that the impact of Poland’s move goes beyond just the economic and trade sectors. “In the short term, Chinese exports to Europe will be severely affected, creating sudden pressures on manufacturing and foreign trade enterprises, with supply chains being impacted as well. If Europe further tightens its demands on China, the friction between the two sides in high technology and energy transition may increase. This will not only weaken the mutual trust foundation but also make future cooperation more uncertain,” he explained. He also believes that the relationship between Europe and China may gradually shift towards a long-term competitive framework.
According to European logistics industry data, in 2024, the total value of China-Europe railway freight amounted to approximately $27 billion, with about 90% relying on the “Poland-Belarus corridor.” A rough estimate suggests that this blockade could lead to weekly delays or diversions of goods worth around $470 million, affecting major Chinese exports such as electronics, cross-border e-commerce clothing, and automotive components.
A Mr. Sun, a supplier of automotive components in Shandong, mentioned that the suspension of China-Europe rail services has increased the operating costs for his company. “Rail transport is twice as fast as sea transport, taking 15 to 20 days to reach the destination compared to 1 to 1.5 months by sea. Our warehouses are filling up these days, costing us more on storage and interest every day. We can only switch to sea transport, but customers are getting impatient.”
He further explained that the company had originally planned to deliver modules directly to European carmakers in Poland by rail. However, they are now forced to resort to sea or air transport. “Once delayed by more than two weeks, customer production may be affected, and we face the risk of breach of contract.”
Mr. Li, a cross-border e-commerce operator in Yiwu, Zhejiang, stated, “We had a batch of autumn clothing scheduled to be delivered to a warehouse in Germany within three weeks, but now it’s estimated to be delayed by more than three weeks. If we switch to air transport, the cost is three times that of rail, which we cannot afford.”
A flat-panel computer exporter from Shenzhen said, “Rail transport was our preferred choice for balancing time efficiency and cost, but now we have to increase inventory, putting a significant strain on our cash flow.”
In an effort to ease the situation, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi made an urgent visit to Poland on September 18, holding separate meetings with the Polish President and Foreign Minister. China proposed measures such as enhancing cargo inspection cooperation and providing additional security guarantees, hoping that Poland would promptly restore the operation of the railway express. However, Poland maintains the closure of its borders citing national security reasons, with no substantial breakthrough in negotiations.
An unnamed scholar in Beijing analyzed, “Wang Yi’s personal visit indicates that China attaches great importance to the China-Europe railway express, but political and security considerations now outweigh economic concerns. Poland has long been dissatisfied with China’s support for Russia and is taking advantage of preventing further Russian actions to block the railway. China’s opposition has proven futile.”
Experts predict that if Poland continues to keep its borders closed for an extended period, Chinese export enterprises will face not only extended transport times but also severe challenges in cash flow and order stability.
Mr. Zhao, a former researcher at the European Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that since its launch in 2011, the China-Europe railway express has been a key support for China’s westward exports. However, the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly threatens European security. “With the conflict intensifying, Russian drones briefly entered Polish airspace in early September, sparking strong backlash. Poland’s border closure not only disrupts logistics but also reflects direct geopolitical implications on economic and trade cooperation. Other Baltic countries may follow suit, which is very detrimental to China.”
Various industry professionals from Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other regions who were interviewed believe that it will be challenging to lift the border closure in Poland in the short term. Chinese exporters will have to seek alternative routes, including the “Southern Route” through Central Asia and the Baltic Sea port solutions.
Mr. Zhao added, “If the border closure continues for three months, Chinese exports to Europe could decrease by $12 to $15 billion. This estimate includes not only the value of delayed goods but also factors in costs related to rerouting, warehousing, and financing. But the bigger issue is the reliability of the China-Europe railway within the EU has already been called into question.”
Mr. Li from Tsinghua University in Beijing emphasized, “Poland’s closure of the railway indicates that the China-Europe railway express is no longer a stable and reliable option for exporters, with its uncertainty reflecting the constraints of geopolitics on economic and trade relations.”