Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued a stern warning to the Chinese Communist Party on Friday, stating that if a Filipino is killed in the South China Sea conflict between China and the Philippines, it would “almost certainly” cross a red line, coming “very close” to what the Philippines defines as an act of war.
During his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Marcos was asked a question about whether if a Filipino sailor is killed by the Chinese Coast Guard’s water cannon, it would mean crossing a “red line,” and under what circumstances the Philippines would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States.
The President responded that if a Filipino is killed intentionally, it would “escalate the level of response” and would be “very, very close to what we define as an act of war.”
He added, “I believe our treaty partner would hold the same standard.”
“We have had incidents of injuries, but thank God, we have yet to reach a point where any of the players, civilians, or others are killed,” Marcos stated, referring to the escalating maritime conflicts with Chinese coast guard vessels.
“But once we cross that point (referring to a death incident)… we will definitely meet that challenge. Is that a red line? It’s almost certain, that will be a red line,” he said.
Conflicts between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea have been increasing. Just in late March this year, a Chinese coast guard vessel used water cannons to attack a Philippine boat heading to Ren’ai Reef (also known as Ayungin Reef), injuring three Filipino crew members. Earlier that month, Chinese coast guards were accused of using water cannons, leading to four Filipino crew members being injured from shattered glass.
Despite Ren’ai Reef being within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone approved by the United Nations, China claims sovereignty over the area and deploys ships to patrol, obstructing the Philippines from transporting supplies to soldiers stationed on a World War II-era ship stranded on the reef.
The escalation of China-Philippines conflicts has prompted Marcos to lean towards the United States. Concerns have arisen that the increasingly tense confrontations between China and the Philippines could lead to a severe incident, prompting the Philippines to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty signed with the United States, potentially turning the China-Philippines conflict into a broader confrontation.
Former US Indo-Pacific Command Commander, John Aquilino, told the House Armed Services Committee in March that Chinese military provocations increase the risk of conflicts in the Philippines and its surrounding regions.
He stated that the Philippines is a long-standing military ally and treaty partner of the United States and that if any attack by China in the South China Sea on Philippine government vessels and aircraft results in casualties, then the Philippines could invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty.
“If a sailor or soldier or any of its members are killed, the Philippines can cite Article 5 of the Mutual Defense Treaty. This will put our policymakers in a really difficult position,” he said.
In his keynote speech on Friday, Marcos cited various treaties, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which establishes a legal framework for all maritime and ocean activities.
The Philippine President stated that UNCLOS also clearly defines maritime boundaries for each country and defines the scope of sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction that countries can exercise in these maritime areas. He pointed out that the Philippines “deliberately strives to keep our definitions of territory and maritime areas in line with what international law allows and recognizes.”
“Our efforts stand in stark contrast to spreading excessive and unfounded claims of arbitrariness through the use of force, intimidation, and deception,” he said, clearly referring to China’s frequent conflicts with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Marcos emphasized that the Philippines is defending the integrity of UNCLOS as the maritime constitution. The Philippines “defines its territory and waters in a manner consistent with being a responsible and law-abiding member of the international community.”
“We have submitted our claims to world-leading legal experts for rigorous legal review. Therefore, the boundaries we have drawn in the waters are not from our imagination but from international law,” he said.
“As President, I made this solemn commitment from day one that I will not yield, and the Filipino people will not yield,” he said.
(This article references reports from CNBC and CNN.)