Hello everyone, welcome to “News Perspectives”. Currently, with Donald Trump about to take office and the Russia-Ukraine war entering its third year, it is reaching its conclusion. There is a strange discourse online suggesting that “Kim Jong-un has made precise moves, copied the essence of the Russia-Ukraine war, and profited greatly.” Is this really the case? Let’s analyze it today.
A few months ago, Kim Jong-un suddenly sent troops to Russia and got involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, indicating he had his own calculations.
Firstly, North Korea needs crucial food aid and nuclear technology from Russia. Over the years, North Korea has faced sanctions from the United Nations and the U.S., coupled with natural disasters, leading to severe economic backwardness and food shortages. While the citizens struggled with hunger, North Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons. Russia, being a major food and nuclear power, can fulfill all of North Korea’s needs in these areas. Both countries, being under international sanctions, found common ground.
Furthermore, the alliance and mutual defense commitments with Russia are significant for North Korea. With China being the only security pillar for North Korea, obtaining Russia’s defense commitments means North Korea now has two security pillars – China and Russia, allowing Kim Jong-un to maneuver between them, negotiate terms, and maintain a balance. It also strengthens North Korea’s confidence in continuing military confrontation with the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.
Initially, with Russia’s national strength and being the world’s second-strongest military power, they wouldn’t bother to ally closely with North Korea. However, the Russia-Ukraine war significantly weakened Russia’s power, presenting Kim Jong-un with an opportunity to show his capabilities. Putin, known for being opportunistic, didn’t resist partnering with Kim Jong-un in their mutual plight. Kim Jong-un chose to strike when the war was ending and Russia was facing its toughest times, gaining Russia’s defense commitments at a minimal cost. This shows Kim Jong-un’s adept political maneuvering skills.
Additionally, the South Korean National Intelligence Service estimated that each soldier could earn $2,000 per month, providing an unexpected windfall for Kim Jong-un.
But can these benefits last? The Russia-Ukraine conflict has yet to cease, the terms the two sides will agree upon are unknown, and how the U.S. under Trump will deal with Russia, who initiated the war, and North Korea that aided in aggression remains a question. Let’s look at the analysis from a former North Korean senior diplomat who defected to South Korea.
Lee Ri-gyu, a former North Korean diplomat who served as a Counselor at the North Korean Embassy in Cuba, defected to South Korea in November 2023 with his family, becoming the highest-ranking North Korean diplomat to flee to South Korea since 2016. Having faced Kim Jong-un in person seven times, he has a deep understanding of Pyongyang.
Lee Ri-gyu emphasized that Kim Jong-un would undoubtedly spare no cost to ensure his survival, even if it meant sacrificing 25 million North Korean people. It is not hard to comprehend why Kim Jong-un dispatched thousands of soldiers as cannon fodder in the Russia-Ukraine war, showing no remorse for the lives lost. Lee Ri-gyu said, “He could have been a good person and a good father. But he was molded into a myth and turned into a monster.”
Lee Ri-gyu also stated that North Korea, as a nuclear-armed state, will never abandon its nuclear weapons and may seek an agreement to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for U.S. sanctions relief. However, Pyongyang won’t genuinely negotiate, and agreeing to freeze the nuclear program is merely a deception. Negotiating with Pyongyang on nuclear issues is a risky move that will only assist North Korea in growing stronger.
Recalling how Trump spent significant time naively negotiating with China during his first term, only to end up unsuccessful, this time around, Trump is more decisive, refusing negotiations and opting to impose tariffs on China. Once Trump sees through Kim Jong-un’s schemes and tricks, he will not fall prey and will not show leniency. The U.S. must curb North Korea’s nuclear weapon development at all costs.
Lee Ri-gyu also believes that the Russia-Ukraine war has brought fortune to Pyongyang. Both Washington and Seoul estimate that Pyongyang has sold millions of rounds of ammunition to Moscow. In exchange, North Korea received food, fuel, and possibly military technology. This deal primarily benefits Pyongyang in continuing its nuclear weapons development. Russia created a “loophole” through this transaction, allowing Kim Jong-un to freely develop his nuclear weapons and missiles, strengthen military defenses, and avoid seeking sanctions relief from the U.S.
However, Lee Ri-gyu noted that Kim Jong-un understands this relationship with Moscow is temporary. Once the Ukraine war ends, Russia may likely sever ties. Therefore, Kim Jong-un has not abandoned plans to normalize relations with the U.S. “North Korea understands that the only way for its survival, to eliminate the threat of invasion and develop its economy, is to normalize relations with the U.S.”
While Russia’s assistance may temporarily alleviate North Korea’s economic woes, Lee Ri-gyu pointed out that the complete closure of borders during the COVID-19 pandemic “devastated North Korea’s economy and people’s lives,” leaving the country with nothing.
Hence, forming an alliance with Russia, using the lives and blood of young soldiers to obtain urgent food aid and nuclear technology, is only for the regime’s survival. Kim Jong-un himself knows that all the benefits gained from involving in the Russia-Ukraine war’s murky waters are just temporary solutions to pressing issues.
Simultaneously, the North Korean soldiers sent to Russia have paid a tragic price with their lives. According to various sources, North Korea has dispatched four regiments, totaling 12,000 soldiers, to assist the Russian army in recapturing the Kursk region.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff estimated about 1,100 casualties, while Ukraine claims 3,000 deaths. So, who are these North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia?
Defectors warn not to underestimate the North Korean troops deployed in Russia. The South Korean intelligence agency stated that most belong to the elite “Storm Legion.” They have high morale but lack understanding of modern warfare. Only tall, physically fit men are selected into the “Storm Legion.”
However, despite advanced training compared to regular North Korean forces, the soldiers are still undernourished, even suffering from malnutrition. Online videos from North Korean troops stationed in Russia depict them as young and “feeble.” Kim Jong-un allocated limited resources more towards developing missiles and nuclear weapons rather than feeding his army and people adequately.
A defector shared that the most memorable aspect of serving in the North Korean military is enduring continuous hunger. In the first month of service, due to subsisting on crushed corn and moldy cabbage, he lost 10 kilograms. After three months of training, nearly the entire camp suffered severe malnutrition, requiring rehabilitation to regain weight.
Even in the elite Special Forces, known as the “Storm Legion,” the defectors described the service life as “extremely difficult.” Kim Jong-un had no choice but to dispatch the Special Forces, as most ordinary soldiers spent most of their time farming, constructing, or logging. Therefore, the deployment of Special Forces with specific combat capabilities was necessary to safeguard North Korea’s reputation in Russia.
Most of the “Storm Legion” soldiers come from working-class or farming families, highly obedient to the party, executing orders without hesitation and undergo intense ideological “brainwashing” sessions every morning. North Korean troops are more willing to fight than Russian soldiers as it presents a career advancement opportunity. Despite the hardships of serving in North Korea, people are more willing to experience life abroad.
The individuals sent to Russia are soldiers without influence or background – essentially those expendable and easily sacrificed. The families of fallen soldiers do not voice opposition, as their sons are perceived as heroes.
Ukraine and South Korea hoped that many North Korean soldiers would defect after participating in combat. However, Ukraine hasn’t captured any North Korean prisoners as officers are ordered to shoot any soldier attempting to flee. Being captured as a prisoner of war in North Korea is considered a great disgrace worse than death. Soldiers are educated to shoot themselves or detonate grenades at critical moments to end their lives. The North Koreans have a famous military song called “Leave the Last Bullet,” which instructs soldiers to save two bullets—one to shoot the enemy and the other for themselves. These soldiers have been indoctrinated to view their deaths as “honorable.”
On the other hand, while Kim Jong-un demands absolute loyalty from his citizens, Lee Ri-gyu emphasized that years of hardship have eroded North Koreans’ loyalty. People no longer expect anything from the Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un: “Loyalty to the regime or Kim Jong-un is no longer genuine. It is coerced loyalty, as without it one faces death.”
This shift in North Korean mindset largely stems from a flood of smuggled South Korean films and TV dramas. People question why those in the South live like in a first-world country while they endure poverty.
Lee Ri-gyu, who enjoyed a top-tier 1% lifestyle in North Korea, still found it worse than a middle-class South Korean family’s life. As a North Korean diplomat in Cuba, he only earned $500 per month, resorting to illegally selling Cuban cigars in China to support his family.
Lee Ri-gyu expressed that South Korean cultural products are transforming North Korea; “Kim Jong-un is acutely aware that people’s loyalty is declining, people are changing.”
Pyongyang has implemented harsher laws to punish those consuming and spreading South Korean cultural goods, leading to executions. Lee Ri-gyu noted that North Korea abandoned decades-long policies aimed at eventual reunification with South Korea at the end of last year, which he described as Kim Jong-un’s “most evil act.” All North Koreans dream of reunification. Lee Ri-gyu stated that past North Korean leaders “stole people’s freedom, money, and rights,” but Kim Jong-un has taken what little hope remained: hope.
Faced with such a regime and a dictator, there are still people online painting an embellished, glorified picture. Where is the backbone of the intellectuals?
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