On Friday, August 16, the daughter of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, emerged as the new Prime Minister of Thailand, winning nearly two-thirds of the parliamentary support with ease, becoming the youngest Prime Minister in Thai history.
Just two days earlier, Thaksin’s ally, Srettha Thavisin, was removed from the prime minister’s position by the Thai Constitutional Court for “serious breach of professional ethics.” This decision came after he appointed a minister who had previously been incarcerated, leading to political turmoil in Thailand.
Paetongtarn will become the second female Prime Minister of Thailand, following in the footsteps of her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra and her father Thaksin Shinawatra, making her the third Shinawatra family member to hold the position of Prime Minister.
Following her election as Prime Minister, Paetongtarn expressed sadness and confusion over the dismissal of former Prime Minister Srettha and vowed to step up to the challenge.
At 37 years old, Paetongtarn has not previously held a government position. Her tenure will be marked by a myriad of challenges, including an ailing economy, intensifying competition from the opposition party, and a crisis in the reputation of the For Thai Party, whose popularity has been dwindling due to unfulfilled promises of a cash distribution program worth 500 billion baht (approximately 14.25 billion USD).
Over the past nine years, Thailand’s political landscape has been marred by coup d’états and court rulings, leading to the dissolution of the anti-establishment Future Forward Party, multiple governments being overthrown, and the swift dismissal of former Prime Minister Srettha within a year of taking office.
Just nine days ago, the Thai Constitutional Court dissolved the Future Forward Party, the winner of the 2023 election, citing their campaign to amend the law on insulting the monarchy, which the court deemed as a potential threat to Thailand’s constitutional monarchy.
As the primary challenger to the For Thai Party, the Future Forward Party, now restructured as the People’s Party, won the 2023 election but failed to form a government. These recent political upheavals underscore the fragile balance between Thaksin, the establishment, and conservative military forces.
Since his exile 15 years ago following his ouster in 2016, Thaksin returned dramatically in 2023, reinstating his ally Srettha as Prime Minister on the same day. Thaksin’s sister and former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck remains exiled abroad.
Paetongtarn’s ascent to power holds significant implications for the political future of the Shinawatra family. In 2023, the For Thai Party suffered its first electoral defeat in over two decades, losing to the Future Forward Party, necessitating a coalition government with their military rivals.
“For Thaksin, this is a huge gamble. She could fail, which poses a significant risk for the entire Shinawatra dynasty,” remarked Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political analyst at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand. “If she cannot revitalize the economy and rejuvenate the party, this could be her final stand, especially as the People’s Party gains momentum post-restructuring.”