In a highly anticipated showdown between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, all eyes in the United States are focused on the presidential race. However, the control of Congress also plays a significant role in shaping the political landscape.
Currently, the Republicans hold a slim majority of only eight seats in the House of Representatives, meaning they can afford to lose the support of only three members in key votes. On the other hand, the Democrats, along with four independents, hold 51 seats in the Senate, with Vice President Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote.
While the Republicans are poised to regain control of the Senate, the outlook for the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Regardless of who wins the presidency, complete control of Congress is necessary to accomplish many legislative goals during the term.
Ideologically divided Republicans are looking to expand their slim majority in the House, with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson expressing interest in seeking reelection.
Meanwhile, Democrats aim to reclaim their majority status from 2019 to 2023, with plans to have House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries serve as Speaker.
Out of the 435 House races, it is estimated that over twenty races will ultimately determine the control of the 119th Congress.
The Cook Political Report has rated each of these races as “toss-ups,” making them the most unpredictable elections.
The Republican control of the House can largely be attributed to the party’s victories in New York in 2022 when several Republicans won districts that had previously voted for Joe Biden years prior.
One of the most surprising victories was Mike Lawler defeating incumbent Democratic Congressman Patrick Maloney in a narrow contest in northern New York City, with a slim margin of 0.6%.
According to a poll conducted at Emerson College on October 3, Lawler was only leading his Democratic opponent Mondaire Jones by one percentage point.
Similarly, New York Republican Representatives Marc Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito are fighting hard to retain their competitive seats in districts that supported Biden.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Molinaro won by a margin of around 1.6%, while D’Esposito secured a victory with a 3.6% lead.
Current polling results for both candidates fall within the margin of error, with the latest polls showing both trailing the Democratic candidates by three percentage points.
However, early polling indicates a significant advantage for D’Esposito, leading by 6 percentage points.
Despite the Republican momentum in New York in 2022, it remains to be seen whether the party can maintain this…
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