Taiwan’s Institute of National Policy Research held a seminar on July 21st titled “Political Turning Point and Prospects for Taiwan-Japan Relations after the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors Election”. Scholars and experts analyzed the future political landscape in Japan, policy directions, and the development of Taiwan-Japan relations.
The Executive Director of the Institute of National Policy Research, Wang Hongren, indicated that the results of the Japanese House of Councillors election saw a decrease in the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito to below half of the seats. While they still maintain a majority in the House of Representatives, this has led to increased domestic political instability and decreased flexibility in foreign strategic matters, with significant negative political implications. With different parties controlling the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors in Japan, the government is expected to face obstacles in legislation and budget deliberations, challenging the existing ruling party and the legitimacy of leadership in Japan’s political system.
Deputy Director of the Institute of National Policy Research, Guo Yuren, mentioned that despite a drop in support for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to 20% before the election, the outcome of the House of Councillors election was better than expected. Since taking office in October last year, Abe’s ruling coalition has not made significant policy errors. While the political tide in Japan is not favorable to the Liberal Democratic Party, Abe does not agree with the notion of Japan heading towards extreme right-wing trends or facing challenges from various opposition parties. In reality, the issues lie within the internal dynamics of the Liberal Democratic Party, rather than a fluctuation between the party and opposition forces.
Guo Yuren noted that historically, if the Liberal Democratic Party lost in the House of Councillors election, the Prime Minister would resign. However, despite facing three consecutive defeats, Abe, the leader, is reluctant to step down, which is perplexing. The Constitutional Democratic Party saw gains, and its chairman Yukio Edano believes that Abe’s failure to fulfill political promises is a major concern regarding his continued tenure as Prime Minister. Regardless, the ruling power of the Liberal Democratic Party led by Abe post-election has diminished, and will have to govern based on established policies.
Ho Sishen, a professor of Japanese language and literature at Fu Jen Catholic University, stated that the Liberal Democratic Party winning 47 seats can be seen as a minor setback. Right-leaning parties that focused on immigration issues saw significant gains, increasing their seats from one to 14. The spectrum of opposition forces in Japan is too fragmented to unite against the ruling coalition challenge. Figures like Koichi Hagiuda, who are friendly towards Taiwan, have not yet emerged. If Abe can negotiate acceptable tariff rates with the US by the end of the month and propose feasible economic policies, he will continue to lead the ruling coalition.
Wu Ming-shang, a professor of mass communications at Kaohsiung University, highlighted that the Japanese House of Councillors election, akin to a midterm election in the US, is a litmus test for the ruling party’s performance. The Liberal Democratic Party retained 14 seats in this election, and the opposition did not make significant gains. Therefore, the situation remains controllable for the Liberal Democratic Party. The coalition’s agricultural policies led to high rice prices, and the appointment of Fumio Kishida as Minister of Agriculture and Forestry following Takuya Tondo did not go through the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations, which caused dissatisfaction within the agricultural system. The declining votes for the Liberal Democratic Party in agricultural counties must be addressed appropriately.
Professor Dang Yang Junchi from the Department of Political Science and Law at Kaohsiung University emphasized that the rise of right-wing parties is due to their effective use of new media strategies such as online live streaming, appealing to young voters, and attracting some conservative voters from the Liberal Democratic Party. This shift reflects changing demographics in Japanese voters, and the Liberal Democratic Party needs to reassess its strategies, indicating a general distrust towards existing political parties and traditional media among voters.
Professor Fan Shiping of the Department of East Asian Studies at National Taiwan Normal University noted that the results of the House of Councillor’s election in Japan should not affect the structure of the ruling political coalition. After the election, the government may focus on negotiating tariffs with the US to further lower the rates, adding pressure on South Korea. Recent interactions between senior officials from Japan and China have been observed at international conferences, where former Ambassador to Japan, Wang Yi, still plays a pivotal role in Sino-Japanese relations. Anti-China sentiments are prevalent in Japan, and with a million Chinese residents in Japan, including 160,000 potential naturalized citizens, tensions in Japanese society could escalate.
Assistant Researcher Wang Zunyan from the National Security Research Institute at the National Defense College noted that the Liberal Democratic Party’s slight setback in the House of Councillors election while still maintaining the status of the largest party signifies a show of strength for Abe to continue as Prime Minister. The challenges posed by senior political figures like Aso, Kishida, and the younger Koizumi did not materialize as expected, thereby providing Abe with the confidence to remain in power. Taiwan’s crisis is Japan’s crisis, indicating a rare public statement, which showcases the consistency of Abe’s stance previously stated during the lower house elections last year.
Professor Tsai Dongjie, a special lecturer at the Institute of International Political Studies at National Chung Hsing University, commented that Abe’s tenure as Prime Minister, despite having to contest elections five times before assuming office, remains challenging due to internal and external pressures. With high prices and the national debt ceiling reached, Japan has no room for further borrowing. The Liberal Democratic Party lost power in 2009 due to economic woes, with the stock market plummeting from over 30,000 points to just over 7,000 points. Facing three defeats in elections, the party will likely experience economic challenges until the end of the year, and a potential snap election next year.
President Tian Hongmao of the Institute of National Policy Research mentioned that a key observation post the House of Councillors election is whether Abe’s administration will undergo significant reshuffling. Although major reshuffling is unlikely, the effects of the election on Japan’s political landscape and regional dynamics are still unfolding. Internal uncertainties in Taiwan arise from unilateral tariff regulations set by President Trump, altering the international landscape. After the House of Councillors election in Japan, the country’s stance on tariff negotiations will become clearer, leading to new approaches, which Taiwan’s government and industries can learn from.
Tian Hongmao emphasized that Japan has always maintained close ties with the Philippines and ASEAN countries, playing a leading role in Asia. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s investment in Japan has had a very positive impact on Kyushu’s economy. Taiwan must explore how to further promote mutually beneficial relations with Japan through such investments.