According to a recent poll, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over former President Trump in six out of the seven key battleground states in the 2024 US election. Excluding margin of error, the two presidential candidates are neck and neck in these swing states.
With approximately 40 days until the election on November 5th, a new poll released by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult on September 26th shows that Harris leads over Trump in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Harris holds the largest lead over Trump in Nevada by 7 percentage points (52% to 45%); she leads in Pennsylvania by 5 percentage points (51% to 46%).
In Arizona and Michigan, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points with a 50% to 47% advantage. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by 3 points with a 51% to 48% margin.
In North Carolina, Harris’s lead over Trump narrows to 2 percentage points (50% to 48%). Both candidates have equal support at 49% in Georgia, making it a tie.
When polling possible voters in all seven swing states, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points (50% to 47%).
If a third-party candidate enters the presidential race, Harris’s lead over Trump in swing states among potential voters would expand to 4 percentage points.
The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points in Nevada and 3 percentage points in other states. It indicates that, except for Nevada and Pennsylvania, most of Harris’s lead falls within the margin of error. This means that she and Trump are essentially tied in these swing states, highlighting the unpredictability of the election in these key states.
Swing state voters have consistently identified the economy as their top concern in this election, with many believing that Trump is better suited to handle the issue. The latest poll from Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows that Harris outperforms President Biden on this issue and is closely challenging Trump’s lead.
When asked who they trust more to handle daily costs of goods, about 47% of respondents chose Trump, while 46% chose Harris, resulting in nearly a tie.
On the issue of helping the middle class, Harris holds a significant 11-point advantage over Trump.
However, immigration remains a weak point for Harris. Trump enjoys a 14-point trust advantage over Harris among potential voters on this issue.
On the topic of abortion, Harris maintains a substantial lead with 56% to Trump’s 32%, a 24-point difference. Abortion is one of the key issues for Harris.
One sign of Harris’s recent strong momentum is that around 47% of potential voters believe she will win the election, regardless of their support, while 40% believe Trump will win.
Since becoming the presidential candidate in late July, Harris has not participated in many interviews, leading to criticism.
Dwayne Gordon, a 65-year-old aluminum product salesperson from Charlotte, Michigan, expressed support for Trump, citing Trump’s potential for improving American manufacturing and job prospects. However, he lacks confidence in Harris, stating that she has not provided detailed plans but only “dream declarations.” Gordon’s confidence in Harris is currently low, doubting her knowledge and capabilities.
However, the poll indicates that after the TV debate on September 10th, 43% of potential voters believe Harris has made significant efforts to introduce her policy positions to swing state voters, with about 40% holding the same view for Trump. Compared to August poll numbers, Harris has increased by 5 percentage points.
Takudzwa Chiduma, a 31-year-old resident of Lansing, Michigan, shifted his support to Harris after initially doubting the readiness of the US for a female president and Harris’s policy proposals. However, after watching the debate between Harris and Trump, Chiduma changed his mind, believing that Harris is prepared and possibly the best candidate.
Harris has put forward some popular proposals that may benefit her, with three-quarters or more of potential voters supporting her ideas, including measures to prevent price gouging on groceries, curb corporate landlords buying single-unit homes, and raising taxes for individuals with annual incomes over $400,000.
Most swing state voters also favor Trump’s proposals related to canceling social security and tipping taxes. However, two of Trump’s other tax proposals – imposing a 10% tariff on all imported products and increasing the cap on state and local tax deductions – only garner support from about half of potential swing state voters.
Additionally, Harris has an edge on housing costs, salary increases, and personal debt, while swing state voters trust Trump more on the stock market, gasoline prices, and interest rates.
Swing state voters continue to give a low rating to the US economy, with nearly seven out of ten believing the national economy is on the wrong track. However, many respondents expressed optimism for next year’s economy following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut.
Some key states have already begun early voting, and the 2024 presidential election in the US is approaching its final sprint, possibly setting up another unpredictable election.