Amid escalating tensions between China and the United States, the resumption of flights between the mainland and North America has been slow, with the total planned number of flights by this fall only at 20% of the levels seen in the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to a report in the Nikkei newspaper on the 25th, Lin Zhijie, a Chinese civil aviation expert, stated, “It will take a longer time for the number of flights between China and the United States to recover.”
After summarizing the total number of scheduled flights for the summer and fall seasons of 2024, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in China found that international flights departing from China have recovered to 80% of the levels seen in the same period in 2019. Routes connecting Japan and South Korea have resumed to 90%, while those connecting Southeast Asia and Europe stand at 80%. In contrast, routes to North America are only at 20%.
Prior to the pandemic, airlines between China and the United States operated over 150 round-trip flights per week. The travel restrictions caused by the pandemic led to a sharp decrease in the number of flights.
According to reports from mainland China, the number decreased to only four flights per week in June 2020.
In January 2023, China relaxed its strict pandemic prevention and control policies. Despite travel becoming easier, the recovery of flights to North America has significantly lagged behind.
Due to the slow recovery of flights between North America and China, ticket prices are increasing. Compared to off-peak prices in 2019 ranging from 3000 to 5000 RMB, prices have exceeded 10,000 RMB in 2024.
The drop in passenger demand between China and the United States is significant. The ongoing tensions between the two countries over issues like economic security have cast a shadow on the resumption of flights. The number of business and travel visas granted to Chinese mainland tourists from January to April was around 210,000, a 40% decrease compared to the same period in 2019.
Meanwhile, the number of American students studying in China has also significantly declined. During his late April visit to China, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken mentioned, “Around fifteen years ago, there were approximately 15,000 American students studying in China. Now, the number has dropped to around 800.”
The demand for travel among Chinese individuals may be shifting towards regions outside of North America. Starting in July, Air China will increase its weekly flights between Beijing and Sapporo from five to six.
China Eastern Airlines recently launched a route to the Austrian capital, Vienna, and also added flights to London and Madrid. Furthermore, China Southern Airlines is planning to start flights to Budapest, Hungary by the end of June.