With just one month left until the 2024 presidential election in the United States, the race has intensified into one of the most captivating in American history. The incumbent Democratic president withdrew from the race, leading to a last-minute change in candidate with the Vice President stepping up. Additionally, the Republican candidate survived two attempted assassinations, adding further drama to the already high-stakes election.
One of the key indicators in this election cycle is where the campaign teams are spending their money. It signifies where they see opportunities, as both parties are vying to secure the best path to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
Out of the 50 states in the U.S., 43 states lean towards either the Democratic or Republican Party, leaving the remaining 7 battleground states as crucial for securing victory in the election.
For the Democrats to win, they must secure victories in the “blue wall” states, while the Republicans need to focus on cultivating support in the “sun belt” states.
In the first week of October, the campaign team for candidate He Jīnlì scheduled numerous advertisements in three key “blue wall” states. They allocated over $5 million for ads in Pennsylvania, around $4 million in Michigan, and about $2.7 million in Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were pivotal “blue wall” states in helping Biden secure victory in 2020. He Jīnlì hopes to build upon Biden’s success in these states.
CNN’s David Wright has been closely tracking the campaign spending of both parties. He mentioned that if He Jīnlì wins these three states and secures the electoral votes in Nebraska’s undecided second congressional district (where her campaign team has also spent over $300,000 on ads this week), she could be the next president.
On the other hand, Trump’s campaign team has set their sights on the sun belt. This week, Trump’s campaign team spent the most on advertisements in Pennsylvania, reaching $3.8 million, although the total amount is not as high as He Jīnlì’s. The focus on Pennsylvania underscores its importance as a strategic battleground for both candidates.
Additionally, Trump’s campaign team invested $3.4 million in North Carolina and nearly $3 million in Georgia. If he manages to win these two states along with Pennsylvania, he would secure a return to the White House.
He Jīnlì enjoys support from both the left and right wings of the political spectrum. Former Democratic President Obama is a vocal supporter of He Jīnlì, planning a 27-day campaign tour starting from Pennsylvania to rally support within the party.
Simultaneously, He Jīnlì has garnered support from some dissatisfied Republicans with Trump, such as former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, who are trying to appeal to moderate and independent voters, as well as Republicans looking to distance themselves from Trump.
Trump is set to receive strong support from world’s wealthiest person Musk. Musk is expected to appear at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Saturday. Trump was shot in the ear at this same location in July by a gunman, narrowly surviving.
“I am going back to Butler because I feel I have a duty to go back to Butler,” Trump told NewsNation host Chris Cuomo.
“We have not finished what we should have done,” Trump said. “When I was shot, I said we would come back.”
“We are coming back right away, fulfilling promises, fulfilling duty,” he added.
A recent strike by East Coast port workers will not become an election issue. The significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may provide temporary relief, allowing people to consider buying homes or cars. The recently released strong September job data seems to indicate that those seeking employment are finding opportunities.
However, prices on Election Day are much higher than during Trump’s presidency, and oil prices may rise again next month, putting real pressure on voters.
Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report noted that while the significant shift towards He Jīnlì in summer opinion polls has stalled, there is evidence that Americans’ views on the economy are changing.
Speaking on CNN’s “Inside Politics,” Walter stated that while the overall landscape of the 2024 election remains unchanged, there are deeper shifts among key voters in key states. She mentioned that Trump’s previous advantage in addressing inflation has diminished, and his lead on immigration issues is narrowing.
“Voters… they’re not feeling great about the economy, but their pessimism about the economy is lessening,” Walter remarked. Furthermore, voters who are “indifferent” about the economy appear to have better feelings towards He Jīnlì.
Therefore, Election Day will test whether voters’ reduced economic pessimism is enough?
Both North Carolina and Georgia are crucial swing states, heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene.
Rescue workers are still striving to locate missing individuals, especially in rural areas of North Carolina hit by floods and cut off from aid. These voters, whose homes have been destroyed and roads washed away, may make their voices heard in their own way and through their votes.
The Democratic Party is trying to overcome internal divisions arising from the Middle East situation. He Jīnlì aims to strike a balance between supporting Israel and recognizing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The left-wing of the Democratic Party has sympathy towards Palestinians.
Currently, Israel has recently clashed with Lebanon and faced missile attacks from Iran. It’s anticipated that Israel may launch retaliatory strikes against Iran.
CNN notes that it is unclear how the escalating conflicts in the Middle East might impact or whether they will affect the U.S. election, but there are potential divisions within the Democratic Party. This could pose challenges, especially in key states like Michigan, if some voters disappointed with U.S. support for Israel decide not to vote.
Early voting and mail-in voting have already begun in most parts of the U.S., with expectations that early voting will not reach the levels seen during the 2020 election amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump remains skeptical of mail-in voting, but the Republican Party is increasingly embracing this practice in key states to keep up with the Democrats.