In the past four years, the number of children enrolled in Chinese kindergartens has decreased by a quarter, with 40,000 kindergartens shutting down and the remaining ones struggling to stay afloat. This highlights the significant impact of China’s declining birth rate on the education system, serving as the first domino to fall in the face of a massive demographic shift.
According to data from the Chinese Ministry of Education, from 2020 to 2024, the number of children enrolled in kindergartens decreased by 12.34 million from its peak of 48 million, a drop of over 25%, with enrollment plummeting by 34%. The number of kindergartens providing education services for children aged 3 to 5 also decreased by 41,500 from a peak of nearly 295,000 in 2021, equivalent to 2 kindergartens closing every hour.
China is currently one of the fastest-declining countries in terms of population. The cliff-like drop in the source of preschool education forebodes the severe consequences the declining population will bring to society and the government, as the wave of kindergarten closures is just the earliest manifestation of China’s population crisis.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party, China has experienced three consecutive years of negative population growth as of 2024. This outcome is related to the “one-child policy”, which was implemented in 1979 and ended in 2016.
Furthermore, China’s population structure has undergone dramatic changes, forming an “inverted pyramid” where the elderly population continues to increase while the number of children decreases.
Official data from the Chinese Communist Party indicates that by the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China reached 310 million, accounting for 22% of the total population; among them, the population aged 65 and above reached 220 million, accounting for 15.6% of the total population.
Prominent Chinese issues scholar Zhang Jiadun once wrote in the Newsweek that the reasons for China’s declining population include deep societal changes, sustained economic decline, and deepening feelings of depression. Young people in China now refer to themselves as the “last generation”.
In Zhejiang’s Jinhua City, Zhuang Yanfang runs three private kindergartens. At its peak, her kindergartens enrolled over 1,000 children, but now only have 150 students.
“With the declining birth rate, the number of students enrolling in kindergartens has significantly decreased,” Zhuang Yanfang told the Financial Times, estimating that 90% of private kindergartens in this rapidly aging community have closed down.
Stuart Gietel-Basten, Director of the Centre for Aging Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and a demographer, pointed out that compared to five or ten years ago, China’s birth rate has experienced a cliff-like decline.
He believes that the trend of declining enrollment in kindergartens has become deeply ingrained in China’s population structure and is irreversible. However, how to deal with the massive infrastructure of China’s education system, such as buildings and equipment, remains a daunting and pressing issue.
Zhuang Yanfang has keenly felt the changes in the population structure. In 2023, she converted one of her kindergartens into a nursing home with 42 beds, but currently, only 16 elderly residents are accommodated. She also organizes social activities and provides meal services for about 200 retired elderly residents in the area.
However, this service transformation also faces challenges. Since most elderly people only move into nursing homes under desperate circumstances, especially when they are in good health.
“We are pondering how to get through the next few years,” Zhuang Yanfang said. “Some may choose to simply shut down… but I hope to persevere, at least to relive the past.”
According to a 2022 survey by the Professional Committee of Pre-school Education of the China Private Education Association, 84% of private kindergartens face financial shortages. Among them, 38.2% of kindergartens have debts exceeding 500,000 yuan, with over 12% of kindergartens having debts exceeding 1.6 million yuan. Only 1.5% of kindergartens have no debt pressure. The current situation may be worse than in 2022.
Chinese media outlet “Caixin” reported that many kindergartens in China have been transformed into nursing homes or have adopted a “co-housing for the elderly and young” model, providing one-stop elderly care and childcare services.