Last week, Fox News Digital reported on data shared by Eric Kaufman, a political science professor at the University of Buckingham, showing that the proportion of college students identifying as non-binary has decreased by half in just two years.
This week, Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University, released more data that seems to further confirm Kaufman’s findings on a broader scale.
Twenge, in an article for Generation Tech magazine, described how she first analyzed nationally representative data from the Household Pulse Survey, directly asking respondents if they identified as transgender.
The Household Pulse Survey data showed a decline in the proportion of transgender identity among the 18-22 age group in 2024. However, Twenge approached this conclusion cautiously, noting that the decline occurred only during a specific period (July to September 2024) and that two out of three survey rounds introduced a non-binary gender option that did not exist before. She speculated that this might be the reason for the decrease in transgender identity.
She then began examining another nationally representative survey known as the Cooperative Election Study (CES), conducted by Tufts University and managed by YouGov, which includes questions on transgender identity and non-binary gender identity.
The CES surveys in 2021, 2022, and 2024 asked respondents if they identified as transgender, with options for “Yes,” “No,” and “Prefer not to say.”
Twenge informed Fox News Digital that the “Prefer not to say” option was considered as “data missing.”
Since 2021, the gender question in CES surveys has been revised to ask, “What is your gender?” with options including “Male,” “Female,” “Non-Binary,” and “Other.”
Survey results showed a nearly halved proportion of transgender identity among the 18-22 age group from 2022 to 2024, with non-binary identity declining by over half from 2023 to 2024.
Twenge noted, “During my review process, I discovered a significant increase in transgender identity from those born before 1980 (Generation X and Baby Boomers) to those born in the early 2000s (now aged 21 to 25).”
However, she pointed out, “Subsequently, the proportion of transgender identity started to decline, especially among those born in 2005 and 2006 (now aged 18 to 20).”
She explained that one possible reason for this change could be variations in societal acceptance. When acceptance increases, more young people may identify as transgender or be willing to indicate this identity in surveys. Conversely, a decrease in societal acceptance may lead to a decline in the proportion of self-identified transgender individuals (or at least those who identify as such in surveys).
In her previous analysis of survey data, Twenge found that the increasing trend in transgender identity from 2014 to 2023 did not extend to the 45-and-older age group (Generation X and Baby Boomers).
She suggested that this finding reduces the likelihood that changes in acceptance are the primary reason, as changes in acceptance should affect all age groups. However, she did not rule out the possibility that the increase in acceptance was greater among younger cohorts in the 2014-2023 period, followed by a more significant decline in 2024.
Twenge also emphasized that self-identifying as transgender and identifying as non-binary are two distinct concepts.
She explained, “One of the reasons I conducted this analysis was that the survey Kaufman cited did not inquire about transgender identity but rather about non-binary or non-male/non-female identities, and I wanted to confirm if the transgender identity exhibited a declining trend.”
She added, “I believe that using a nationally representative sample is crucial instead of limiting the study to elite student groups.”
Kaufman praised Twenge’s new report, calling her “one of the top researchers in the industry.”
He stressed, “The current key issue is not whether the transgender phenomenon is declining, but the extent of the decline – and how this will impact progressive cultural agendas, gender surgery, and diagnostic trends.”