Recently, North Korea launched a strong criticism against the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” in the joint statement of China, Japan, and South Korea, and attempted to launch a satellite, which unfortunately exploded shortly after lift-off. North Korea has also been exposed to selling weapons to Russia, leading to speculations that nuclear weapons serve as a key strategic weapon for North Korea and Russia to challenge the United States and counter the West, with China playing a supporting role behind the scenes. This cooperation has increasingly isolated China, North Korea, and Russia from the international community.
In a statement issued on Monday (27th), North Korea publicly condemned the earlier discussions on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula during the China-Japan-South Korea summit, accusing the three countries’ joint statement of infringing on North Korea’s sovereignty, labeling it as a “serious political provocation” and a “blatant challenge” to North Korea’s sovereignty and an “unwarranted interference” in its internal affairs.
The joint statement of the China-Japan-South Korea summit reiterated their stance on regional peace and stability as well as the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, unlike previous similar statements from 2019 and earlier that did not explicitly mention commitments to denuclearization.
Furthermore, North Korea announced the launch of a military spy satellite, which was promptly condemned by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. The satellite exploded shortly after its launch. According to Voice of America, the explosion occurred just a few hours after the trilateral talks between China, Japan, and South Korea ended on Monday night.
Dr. Chung Chih-tung from the Taiwan think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, analyzed with Epoch Times on the 31st that this issue mainly involves North Korea’s sovereignty and strategic interests. Sovereignty-wise, North Korea has already enshrined its so-called nuclear stance in its constitution.
“From a strategic interest perspective, nuclear weapons are currently North Korea’s primary means to counter South Korea and Japan, especially the United States,” Dr. Chung analyzed.
North Korea has shown a wavering attitude on the issue of nuclear weapons. As early as the 1990s, amid South Korea’s preparations to develop nuclear weapons, North Korea proposed denuclearization and signed an agreement with South Korea, leading to the withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea by the United States.
However, in October 2006, North Korea conducted a nuclear test despite international opposition. Up to 2017, North Korea had conducted six nuclear tests.
In 2018, following the first summit between Kim Jong-un and former U.S. President Donald Trump, they signed a joint statement accepting denuclearization. However, before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, Kim Jong-un enshrined nuclear weapons in the constitution, deeming the situation “irreversible.”
Dr. Chung pointed out, “If North Korea does not possess nuclear weapons, especially concerning the United States, North Korea would lack any deterrent capability. Therefore, possessing nuclear weapons is crucial for North Korea to conduct so-called asymmetric strategies.”
Currently, not only does North Korea possess nuclear weapons, but it is also developing intercontinental ballistic missiles to target the United States. Dr. Chung stated, “This presents a clear threat to the United States. This is the only area where North Korea can challenge the United States.”
Ma Junwei, Associate Professor at the International Affairs and Strategic Studies Institute at Tamkang University, also believes that for Kim Jong-un, nuclear weapons and missiles serve as his lifeline. “In other words, the reason why he can hold a stalemate with the United States for so long is due to his possession of nuclear weapons and continuously advancing missiles. This is a crucial aspect of his national development.”
China has outwardly advocated for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, positioning itself as a mediator in negotiations between North Korea and Western countries on denuclearization. However, over the decades, China has not succeeded in this effort. Many analysts believe that China is the driving force behind North Korea’s nuclear development.
Regarding the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” in the recent China-Japan-South Korea statement, Ma Junwei believes, “Of course, Japan and South Korea also welcome this because South Korea is under U.S. control and cannot develop nuclear missiles.”
Dr. Chung mentioned that Beijing’s support for the joint call for “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” by Japan and South Korea would inflict significant damage on North Korea.
The provocations from North Korea have become more frequent and intense, closely linked to China. Rick Fisher, a senior researcher at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, previously stated in the English-language Epoch Times that China may have been assisting North Korea in developing its nuclear capabilities since the early 21st century.
Fisher stated, “China’s continuous provision of a large amount of technology and assistance to North Korea’s nuclear missile program is nearly unashamed.” He added, “The purpose is first to deter the United States, preventing it from easily launching large-scale attacks against the dictatorial regime in Pyongyang; second, to serve as Beijing’s ‘rogue’ agent, by creating nuclear crises to divert U.S. military resources and provide China with the opportunity to invade Taiwan.”
China claims to follow a so-called non-aligned policy externally, with North Korea being the only country that has signed a treaty with Beijing. China and North Korea signed a friendly cooperation assistance treaty in 1961. Despite international sanctions, North Korea’s economy heavily relies on China.
Fisher noted, “Due to China’s special influence over North Korea, Western countries, especially the United States, Japan, and South Korea, are somewhat dependent on Beijing.”
Dr. Chung mentioned that such cooperation also helps increase Beijing’s influence over the United States, Japan, and South Korea, as they have expectations from China regarding its influence over North Korea.
“Therefore, Beijing may play the North Korea card at this time, and then counteract Japan and South Korea, even making some demands on them, at least not to confront Beijing head-on in other areas. I believe this enhances Beijing’s bargaining power in negotiations with Japan and South Korea.”
Moreover, North Korea’s diplomatic ties with Russia have intensified in recent years. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, North Korea-Russia relations have strengthened, with Kim Jong-un visiting Russia in 2023 and holding a summit with Putin. The Kremlin informed Russian media in May that a visit by Putin to North Korea is “under preparation.”
Just like how North Korea threatens South Korea, Japan, and the United States, Russia also uses nuclear weapons as a threat against Ukraine and NATO. Over the past two years, Russian President Putin has three times threatened to use nuclear arsenals, especially when Russia faced setbacks on the battlefield. China has explicitly expressed its disapproval of a Russia-Ukraine war turning nuclear.
Dr. Chung said, “In fact, we can see that Russia recently disregards China’s emphasis on not using nuclear weapons and threatens Europe and the United States with nuclear weapons, similar to North Korea.”
“For North Korea and Russia, nuclear weapons are their most crucial strategic weapons for countering the West, without a doubt.”
Recently, Russia has been exposed to using North Korean weapons extensively. A report from the Pentagon on Wednesday (29th) indicated that Russia is using North Korean-manufactured ballistic missiles in Ukraine. The report cited fragment analysis, confirming long-standing allegations of Pyongyang supplying weapons to Moscow.
North Korea’s official media, the Korean Central News Agency, quoted Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Kim Jong-un, explaining that North Korea’s weapon development is aimed at South Korea. However, according to experts cited by Voice of America, North Korea’s recent series of test launches, including multiple rocket launches, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, may be intended for use on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Dr. Chung believes, “The trilateral relationship between North Korea, China (the CCP), and Russia currently revolves around meeting each other’s needs, as they are all isolated by Western countries. This combined posture of China, Russia, and North Korea is a formality and an inevitable choice at present. But each side is also playing a double game.”