The El Niño phenomenon was one of the factors contributing to the unusually hot summer last year. Now, while this phenomenon is rapidly weakening and is expected to nearly disappear by the start of summer, it does not necessarily mean that the heat will ease up.
According to meteorologists from the Cable News Network (CNN), in the context of human-induced climate change leading to global warming, the disappearance of El Niño does not guarantee a relief from the heat. In fact, it might even lead to the opposite outcome.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When sea temperatures are cooler than average, it’s known as La Niña. Both of these phases can have impacts on global weather patterns.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in the United States suggests that by June, these ocean temperatures will be hovering around near-normal levels, marking a transition to a neutral phase, before La Niña is expected to develop in early summer.
As for the effects of these climate phenomena on the summer weather in the United States, meteorologists suggest that based on reviews of similar summers like those in 2016 and 2020, this summer is likely to be on the warmer side.
Forecasts indicate that in the Lower 48 states of the US, almost every square mile will experience temperatures above average. Only parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Montana have a chance of temperatures near normal, slightly above or below average.
Temperatures in much of the western regions may be higher than normal. Climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center stated that this forecast is based on tracking climate trends for decades.
According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the summer warming trend in the western United States has exceeded that of any other region in the country since the early 1990s.
Much of the western and central regions of the US may experience drier conditions than usual. This drought, coupled with above-normal temperatures (which worsen drought conditions), could lead to new or more severe droughts.
It is expected that from the Gulf Coast of Mexico to the northeast United States, wetter than usual weather will prevail this year. Stormy weather may persist throughout much of the eastern regions during the summer.
However, high temperatures are not the only threat to be mindful of. The strengthening La Niña phenomenon, combined with the ocean temperatures remaining at record highs for over a year, could potentially make the Atlantic hurricane season more intense.
(Based on a report by CNN)