Today’s Focus: Peace Agreement Imminent? US Sends Secretary of the Army! What does a good “peace” entail? First in 20 years! Leader of the Chinese Communist Party contacts US President voluntarily, for what purpose?!
Guests of this episode: Dr. Shen Ming Shi, Researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defence Security, and Mr. Li Su, Senior Media Personality. Host: Jin Shi.
Earlier this week, US President Trump had phone calls with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takamichi. In the midst of tensions between China and Japan, what were the discussions held during these calls by Trump and how do they impact US-China relations? We now connect with our White House correspondent, Zhang Liang, to provide us with an overview.
Last week, the Trump administration put forth a 28-point plan for brokering a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Zhang Liang, can you update us on any recent developments regarding this matter?
According to reports from The Wall Street Journal, the efforts to negotiate between Russia and Ukraine commenced in October. After successfully brokering a ceasefire agreement in Hada, President Trump tasked his national security team with drafting a plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump’s envoys, Weitkoff and Kushner, began drafting what would later be known as the “28-Point Peace Framework” while flying back to the United States from the Middle East.
During this month-long process, Weitkoff and Kushner engaged in secret talks with Russian representatives to understand Russia’s stance. The identified Russian representative, now known to the public, was Kirill Dmitriev, a Harvard graduate and a financier who was appointed as a special representative by Putin in February. His position reportedly had a significant influence on the US-drafted “28-Point Peace Plan.”
Upon the exposure of this plan, it immediately sparked concerns and opposition from US European allies and members of Congress, who deemed the plan too favorable towards Russia. In response to this, over the weekend, the US and Ukraine held talks in Geneva to make modifications to the initial “28-Point Peace Plan” to make it more acceptable to Ukraine. This brings us to the current situation where all parties are cautiously optimistic about reaching a final agreement.
A recent development is the unprecedented move by the US Secretary of the Army, Dan Driscoll, holding a secret meeting with the Russian delegation for discussions on the recent revisions to the Ukraine peace plan by the US.
The rare action of sending a military official to engage directly with the Russian counterparts has sparked discussions among the public.
Professor Shen Ming Shi, why did the US send the Secretary of the Army to engage with the Russian side instead of the typical diplomatic representatives? What noteworthy intentions or signals might this arrangement hold?
Let’s now delve into the key areas of contention between Russia and Ukraine regarding this agreement. Firstly, the issue of the ownership of Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. Can Russia’s occupation of these territories receive legal recognition? Zelensky also stated that this is a major point of contention.
Another disagreement revolves around the limitations on the size of the Ukrainian military forces. In the initial 28-point agreement, a cap of 600,000 troops was set for the Ukrainian military, which was later raised to 800,000 in the revised version proposed by European representatives.
Another focal point of disagreement is whether there should be a possibility for Ukraine to potentially join NATO in the future.
Mr. Li Su, how do you perceive these points of contention? Do you believe there is a possibility for these differences to be reconciled?
The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump’s envoy, Weitkoff, concluded through conversations with officials from various countries and an analysis of relevant intelligence that Ukraine is in a militarily disadvantaged position. Therefore, it needs to make more concessions than Russia to achieve a peace agreement and end the war.
However, opponents argue that Russia is not necessarily in a significantly advantageous position either, facing economic difficulties and manpower shortages. Furthermore, the US has not effectively cut off Russia’s external lifeline by imposing secondary sanctions due to continuous support from China.
Professor Shen Ming Shi, how do you view these two perspectives? Do you believe Ukraine making larger concessions is a necessary condition to stop the war?
High Representative of the European Union for Foreign and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, pointed out that the final peace agreement should make another invasion of Ukraine by Russia impossible.
The editorial in The Wall Street Journal on November 24 also emphasized that a good peace agreement must ensure that Ukraine has the necessary military capabilities and Western security guarantees to protect its sovereignty.
Mr. Li Su, in your opinion, what should a good peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine entail for Ukraine and the international community? What core elements should it incorporate?
Earlier this week, President Trump had a conversation with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, discussing issues concerning Taiwan and Ukraine among other topics, which had many points of interest. Let’s discuss this further.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping’s conversation with Trump mainly focused on the Taiwan issue, even linking it to history by stating Taiwan’s reunification with China as a significant component of the post-war international order, mentioning China and the US fighting side by side during World War II.
Professor Shen Ming Shi, Xi Jinping and Trump met last month at the APEC summit in Korea. Why didn’t Xi Jinping bring up the Taiwan issue during that meeting but chose to suddenly raise it in the recent phone call with Trump?
Follow-up question: Xi Jinping’s remark that “Taiwan’s return to China is a crucial part of the post-war international order” seems grand and ceremonial at first glance, but upon closer examination, it appears perplexing. It is known that after Japan’s defeat in 1945, Taiwan was returned to the legitimate government of China at the time, the government of the Republic of China. The current separation between Taiwan and the mainland is a historical legacy of the Chinese Civil War, yet Xi Jinping describes it as a component of the so-called international order. How do you interpret his statement?
Mr. Li Su, Trump’s response after the call is interesting, as he did not mention the discussion on Taiwan in their conversation. According to reports from the Chinese side, Taiwan was a key point in the Xi-Trump conversation, yet Trump did not mention it afterward. Why do you think this is?
Professor Shen Ming Shi, Trump also quickly made a phone call to Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi and briefed her on his conversation with Xi Jinping. In the midst of escalating tensions between China and Japan, how do you view the current US-Japan-China relations? What role will Trump play in this situation?
Mr. Li Su, the Xi-Trump call also touched on the Ukraine issue. There is a viewpoint suggesting that if the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement does not hold invaders accountable and even allows them to benefit, this could encourage China’s ambitions to invade Taiwan. How do you perceive such claims?
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