Today’s Focus: Not Trump, 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Awarded to Democratic Heroine of Venezuela; Achieving Ceasefire in Israel and Palestine, Trump to Middle East, Opening Path to Peace? Trump Team Calls Out Taiwan, Military Spending Increased to 10% of GDP! Can it be achieved? Boosting bargaining power for “Trump-Xi Meeting”? China tightens control over rare earth minerals again.
Guests of this episode: Dr. Shen Mingshi, Researcher at Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security; Mark, Host of Military Channel “Mark’s Time and Space.” Host: Jinshi.
On October 10 at 5 p.m. local time in Norway, the Nobel Committee announced the recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Contrary to expectations, it was not the U.S. President, Trump, who brokered the Israel-Palestine ceasefire recently but Maria Corina Machado, a prominent opposition leader from Venezuela.
The Nobel Committee praised Machado for “playing a crucial and unifying role within the once deeply-divided political opposition, enabling various factions to find common ground in demanding free elections and a representative government,” and for staying in Venezuela despite facing severe threats to her life, inspiring millions. Her recognition is deemed essential when dictators seize power.
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize generated speculation on Trump’s candidacy, especially after the breakthrough peace agreement in Israel and Palestine this week. However, Trump was eventually overlooked for this year’s award.
Professor Shen, how do you view the Nobel Committee’s choice this year? What might be the reasons for Trump’s defeat?
Mark, your insightful analysis on global conflict is well-known. How do you view this year’s Nobel Peace Prize recipient, and do you believe it’s well-deserved?
President Trump announced on the 8th that Israel and Hamas have signed the first-stage agreement of a peace plan. This groundbreaking development signifies a potential end to the long-standing Israel-Palestine conflict, bringing possible changes to the Gaza and Middle East situation.
Professor Shen, is the first-stage peace agreement reached in Israel and Palestine a win-win deal for all parties involved?
Mark, the current agreement is only the first stage of the peace plan. What are the prospects for overcoming the more challenging obstacles ahead, such as the complete withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces from Gaza and the disarmament of Hamas?
Achieving ceasefire in Israel and Palestine after a two-year delay is a significant development drawing global attention.
Professor Shen, how do you assess Trump’s role as the self-proclaimed “peace president” in facilitating the Israel-Palestine ceasefire?
For Israel, reaching a ceasefire with Hamas and regaining hostages enjoys vast domestic and international support. However, Netanyahu, leading the coalition government’s far-right factions, opposes any peace agreement with Hamas and favors total elimination of the group. Netanyahu faces pressure from both sides and may lead to a potential breakup of the coalition government and early elections in Israel.
Mark, how do you view Netanyahu and his coalition government’s future?
Turning to Trump’s team’s latest call for Taiwan to increase its military spending to 10% of GDP, can Taiwan achieve this goal?
John Noh, nominee for Assistant Secretary of Indo-Pacific Security at the U.S. Department of Defense, emphasized Trump’s stance on Taiwan’s facing threats from the Chinese military, urging over 10% of GDP to be allocated for defense. According to a Washington Post writer, Trump suggested Taiwan should invest more in defense during an interview. Taiwan’s current defense budget is 3.32% of GDP, with President Lai Ching-te aiming to reach 5% by 2030.
Professor Shen, what are your thoughts on Trump’s team proposing this military spending figure for Taiwan? Is 10% a realistic target for Taiwan?
Mark, do you think Trump’s call for Taiwan to significantly raise defense spending is based on the increasing Chinese threat, or does it reflect a desire for Taiwan to rely more on itself rather than on the U.S.?
Lastly, let’s turn our attention to China-U.S. relations.
As the “Trump-Xi Meeting” might occur at this month’s APEC Summit in South Korea, China has suddenly tightened control over rare earth exports. Rare earth exports have been a focal point in U.S.-China trade negotiations, raising speculation on whether China is using this control as leverage for the upcoming summit.
China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Thursday that organizations and individuals exporting rare earth products with Chinese components or produced using Chinese technology overseas, including equipment for rare earth recovery, must obtain Chinese export permits. Applications for exports of advanced technology such as logic chips below 14 nanometers and semiconductor production equipment, or research on potentially military-use artificial intelligence, will be scrutinized case by case.
Professor Shen, why has China tightened rare earth export controls again, and is it related to the upcoming “Trump-Xi Meeting” this month?
Mark, if China uses rare earth export control to limit Western countries’ development of high-tech weapons, do Western countries have breakthrough solutions?
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