In July this year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will hold its third plenary session, which may involve personnel arrangements. Apart from the highly anticipated personnel arrangements for former Foreign Minister Qin Gang and former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, there are also analysts suggesting that the current Defense Minister of the CCP, Dong Jun, is highly likely to advance to the Central Military Commission during the third plenary session.
Last month on the 30th, the CCP Politburo meeting announced that the 20th Third Plenary Session of the CCP would be held in July this year. It is widely believed that the third plenary session will address the matters concerning Qin Gang and Li Shangfu, especially their positions as central committee members.
However, on May 13th, current affairs commentator Gao Xin predicted on Radio Free Asia’s column “Night Talk in the South China Sea” that during the third plenary session, Dong Jun, who replaced Li Shangfu as the Minister of Defense, will fill the vacancy left by Li Shangfu in the CCP Central Military Commission.
Gao Xin stated that the timeframe for the third plenary session has been confirmed and that the position of Defense Minister is unlikely to be the same as that of a regular minister. This is because unless Dong Jun’s performance in military diplomacy after assuming the role of Defense Minister disappoints the CCP leader Xi Jinping, he is unlikely to be appointed as a member of the Central Military Commission or a State Councilor.
The current Defense Minister, Dong Jun, took office on December 29, 2023, but has not yet become a member of the Central Military Commission or a State Councilor.
Gao Xin analyzed that in the second half of last year, the incidents involving Qin Gang and Li Shangfu temporarily caused confusion for Xi Jinping. At the same time, Xi Jinping may need some time to assess Dong Jun. Therefore, Dong Jun was first arranged to take over as the Defense Minister. After passing the assessment, when the time is right, the position of Military Commission member can then be filled. It may also be done in three steps, starting with the appointment as a minister, followed by entry into the Military Commission, and then “promotion” to State Councilor.
He also mentioned that Li Shangfu’s promotion to general took only three years to rise from the level of a regular combat district to a member of the 20th Central Military Commission. By September 2024, Dong Jun’s qualifications as a general for a regular combat district would also have reached three years. Therefore, the “trial period” should not be extended until the next Fourth Plenary Session next year.
Before assuming the position of Defense Minister, Dong Jun was the Commander of the CCP Navy, a member of the 20th Central Committee, and a Vice Admiral of the Navy. Dong Jun is the 14th Defense Minister of the CCP since 1949, and also the first Navy officer to hold the position of Defense Minister. Dong Jun also has the shortest term in the history of CCP military commanders.
Dong Jun’s resume is unremarkable; he has never served as a captain or commanding officer in the Navy, nor does he have combat experience. Around 2012, Dong Jun began to visit grassroots units, and the same year he was promoted to Major General. In 2013, he served as the Deputy Commander of the East Sea Fleet, and a year later he was transferred to Deputy Chief of the Navy Staff.
Former CCP Navy Colonel Yao Cheng once told a reporter from Da Ji Yuan that he had worked with Dong Jun. Yao Cheng estimated that Dong Jun’s promotion to Defense Minister is related to his being a fellow villager of Xi Jinping’s wife, Peng Liyuan, from Shandong Province. This also aligns with the CCP’s standards for personnel selection – loyalty, obedience, and no other factional backgrounds.
Yao Cheng revealed that one-third of the people in the Navy Command simply do not work. This is the system in the CCP now where talents are envied and those who do not work can still get promoted because they do not make mistakes. In the CCP’s military, once reaching a certain level, promotions are not based on ability but on political reliability. Those who do not cause trouble gradually climb up the ranks. People with experience leading troops and combat experience are not sufficiently valued.
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